Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay

[Stefania Joined: Feb 22nd, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 1381 View Predictions]

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George Ehret wrote:

Anyone else feeling that there’s a possibility for Red Rocket to be a lone Screenplay nominee? I haven’t seen it, but it seems to me like the type of movie the writers’ branch would throw in because of its unique characters/story or bold/quirky/bizarre presentation. It also helps that Sean Baker has garnered a good amount of respect over the last few years since Tangerine and The Florida Project, something that likely helped similar indie filmmakers like Mike Mills and Paul Schrader get their first nominations (also Derek Cianfrance considering his story credit on Sound of Metal).

I had “Red Rocket” as a lone screenplay nominee in like August, but then I saw that nobody was making this prediction and I let it go.

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

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I think the lone screenplay nomination is between CODA and Red Rocket.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4957 View Predictions]

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George Ehret wrote:

Anyone else feeling that there’s a possibility for Red Rocket to be a lone Screenplay nominee? I haven’t seen it, but it seems to me like the type of movie the writers’ branch would throw in because of its unique characters/story or bold/quirky/bizarre presentation. It also helps that Sean Baker has garnered a good amount of respect over the last few years since Tangerine and The Florida Project, something that likely helped similar indie filmmakers like Mike Mills and Paul Schrader get their first nominations (also Derek Cianfrance considering his story credit on Sound of Metal).

I think it’s possible yeah. This field does feel like many of the cool kids (small films, really) are Netflix or A24 contenders lol. C’mon C’mon, Red Rocket, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall.

Then of course Titane, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, and I’m still not totally ruling out Flee, Petite Maman, A Chiara. But if foreign films aren’t crashing this I’d say yeah the Netflix & A24 films could very well get into Original Screenplay because I just don’t see anything as a lock (except Belfast I guess, much to my chagrin, and PTA rarely misses too…)

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 36 Posts: 1460 View Predictions]

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Original screenplay
The Worst Person in The World
Mass
Spencer
Belfast
Parallell Mothers

Bubbles
CODA
Red Rocket
Titane

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: Holy Spider
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia de Leon
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1657 View Predictions]

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I’m all for a Red Rocket appearance, but I think A Hero, Parallel Mothers and The Worst Person in the World are all ahead of it. But🤞- I’m here for it (still believe Sean Baker’s brilliant The Florida Project was snubbed here)

FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

[pedrohf2001 Joined: Jan 27th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1137 View Predictions]

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Best Adapted Screenplay

1 – Nightmare Alley

2 – The Power of the Dog

3 – The Lost Daughter

4 – The Humans

5 – Passing

 

Best Original Screenplay

1 – Licorice Pizza

2 – Belfast

3 – Don’t Look Up

4 – Mass

5 – The French Dispatch

[Stefania Joined: Feb 22nd, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 1381 View Predictions]

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Original Screenplay

Belfast
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
C’mon C’mon
The Worst Person in the world

Possibilities:

The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers / A Hero / Titane
King Richard
Red Rocket
Being the Ricardos

Adapted Screenplay

The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
Passing
The Humans

Possibilities:

Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
House of Gucci
CODA

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 240 Posts: 36929 View Predictions]

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Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
3. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
4. Steven Knight, Spencer
5. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

6. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, The Worst Person in the World
7. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
8. Zach Baylin, King Richard
9. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
10. Sean Baker, Red Rocket

Adapted Screenplay

1. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley
4. Rebecca Hall, Passing
5. Sian Heder, CODA

6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune
8. Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci
9. Stephen Karam, The Humans
10. Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Cary Joji Fukunaga and Phoebe Waller-Bridge, No Time to Die

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[DaKardii Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 34 Posts: 681 View Predictions]

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NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS
Original

1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. King Richard
4. Don’t Look Up
5. Mass

 

Adapted

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. Nightmare Alley
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. The Lost Daughter

[TrumpBiden Joined: Dec 22nd, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 927 View Predictions]

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November list!

Original S

George Ehret wrote:

Anyone else feeling that there’s a possibility for Red Rocket to be a lone Screenplay nominee? I haven’t seen it, but it seems to me like the type of movie the writers’ branch would throw in because of its unique characters/story or bold/quirky/bizarre presentation. It also helps that Sean Baker has garnered a good amount of respect over the last few years since Tangerine and The Florida Project, something that likely helped similar indie filmmakers like Mike Mills and Paul Schrader get their first nominations (also Derek Cianfrance considering his story credit on Sound of Metal).

There’s almost always 1 lone screenplay nominee that comes out of nowhere, right?

[Lil Tony Joined: Sep 17th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 3278 View Predictions]

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When House of Gucci appears in adapted with no one predicting it

Danielle Deadwyler gave the performance of the year.

I remain Lady Gaga's BIGGEST FAN

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

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I may be wrong, but after seeing it, I think Spencer will be a bigger play in directing than screenplay.

I want to predict CODA so, so bad, but I’m just not sure it’s had the staying power to make it in over newer, more exciting projects.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 240 Posts: 36929 View Predictions]

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I have CODA getting in à la The White Tiger. I think it will get nominations at both the BAFTAs and WGA (thanks to both the sensibilities of the former and the slew of ineligibilities at the latter) but also the adapted field feels wide open to me.

With Ma Rainey’s snub last year the branch showed they’re not that keen on stage to screen adaptations that don’t involve a lot of adaptation (unless they’re adapted by the original playwright) so I don’t really see The Tragedy of Macbeth getting in. And Dune‘s writing is its most criticised element. If House of Gucci ends up being a screenplay contender I’ll replace CODA with it.

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 4 Posts: 3535 View Predictions]

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wolfali wrote:

I have CODA getting in à la The White Tiger. I think it will get nominations at both the BAFTAs and WGA (thanks to both the sensibilities of the former and the slew of ineligibilities at the latter) but also the adapted field feels wide open to me.

The White Tiger was a more late release though and it had good word of mouth for the two months before the nominations. CODA is an early release that people are barely talking about. It could be nominated, but I don’t think that’s a good comparison.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 240 Posts: 36929 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

The White Tiger was a more late release though and it had good word of mouth for the two months before the nominations. CODA is an early release that people are barely talking about. It could be nominated, but I don’t think that’s a good comparison.

Perhaps. But there’s also Booksmart, another early release, that was nominated at the BAFTAs and WGA. It missed at the Oscars because 1917 coat-tailed a screenplay nomination.

Thus far there is no 1917 type contender in adapted screenplay.

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.