Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

The White Tiger was a more late release though and it had good word of mouth for the two months before the nominations. CODA is an early release that people are barely talking about. It could be nominated, but I don’t think that’s a good comparison.

I see CODA pulling a Big Sick which was a Sundance favorite that also released in the summer. CODA was released in August and is backed by Apple. The writers branch may view Siam Heder, an established writer, as worthy of an Oscar nomination and CODA becomes the lone screenplay nominee.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1067 View Predictions]

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Adapted actually feels like the category with the smallest amount of solid contenders to me (at least right now). I’m seeing it as a solid seven-horse race: The Power of the Dog, Nightmare Alley, The Lost Daughter, Passing, CODA, The Humans, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. Pretty much every other contender feels like something the writers wouldn’t go for (Dune, House of Gucci, The Tender Bar) or isn’t big enough to be a lone screenplay nominee.

FYC: Bad Sisters (Anne-Marie Duff) Cunk on Earth (Diane Morgan), Fleishman Is in Trouble (Lizzy Caplan/Claire Danes), Industry (Marisa Abela/Myha'la Herrold), Physical (Rose Byrne), Poker Face (Ellen Barkin/Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Chloë Sevigny), The White Lotus (Sabrina Impacciatore)

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5264 View Predictions]

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The Last Duel is definitely ahead of The Humans and CODA. It has the three POV’s narrative and Nicole Holofcener writing Jodie’s character. It’s bold and the writers like that. Plus, Damon and Affleck teaming up again.

[OneAndOnly Joined: Mar 21st, 2017 Topics: 12 Posts: 1169 View Predictions]

#1204557449

Adapted:

Being the Ricardos
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alt. Dune

Original:

Belfast
C’mon C’mon
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
ALT. Spencer

Have a great day if you see this!

FYC:
EEAAO
Andor

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1204557453

Being the Ricardos is being campaigned in Adapted Screenplay. Original Screenplay is disturbingly barren.

 

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 245 Posts: 37613 View Predictions]

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crabbie wrote:

Being the Ricardos is being campaigned in Adapted Screenplay.

Welp. RIP CODA.

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1657 View Predictions]

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crabbie wrote:

Being the Ricardos is being campaigned in Adapted Screenplay.

Original Screenplay is disturbingly barren.

It’s competitive enough.

Licorice Pizza
Belfast
King Richard
Don’t Look Up
The Worst Person in the World
Red Rocket
Swan Song
A Hero
The French Dispatch
The Hand of God
Parallel Mothers
C’mon C’mon
The Card Counter
Jockey
Spencer
Flee
Mass
Titane
The Harder They Fall

FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

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kbc wrote:

It’s competitive enough. Licorice Pizza Belfast King Richard Don’t Look Up The Worst Person in the World Red Rocket Swan Song A Hero The Hand of God Parallel Mothers C’mon C’mon The Card Counter Jockey Spencer Flee The Harder They Fall

I am hoping one foreign contender makes it in. It’s getting obnoxious how lately it seems like foreign films can only get a screenplay nomination if the film is also nominated in picture.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 245 Posts: 37613 View Predictions]

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Does anyone else feel like original screenplay seems like a wide open race? Last year it felt like we had two strong contenders in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman. It does feel like we’re headed towards a Belfast and Licorice Pizza showdown. Both are auteur driven and both are likely Picture contenders.

However they both feel like they have their weaknesses which wasn’t the case with either of the top two last season. Licorice Pizza on surface feels like the type of <i>Promising Young Woman</i>/Get Out indie passion pick we’ve seen surprise here in recent years but the thing worth mentioning about both of those films is that they had an impact culturally due to their timeliness in the socio-political climate.  Belfast kind of feels a bit like The Trial of the Chicago 7 (it’s win competitive in picture, also has a timeliness aspect to it) and is auteur driven but I just question how passionate people feel about its writing. Not that it necessarily needs the most passion to win (Green Book did win this category) but when people rave about Belfast it doesn’t feel like the crux of their passion is in the film’s writing.

I think BAFTA will be telling here (I assume Licorice Pizza will take WGA if it’s win competitive for the Oscar as Belfast is ineligible at the guild).

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[Cosmia Joined: Oct 19th, 2021 Topics: 2 Posts: 1558 View Predictions]

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Licorice Pizza will win just to give PTA his Oscar.

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1067 View Predictions]

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I’m thinking Mass will pull a First Reformed and make it into a fairly open screenplay field while missing for its big acting contender.

FYC: Bad Sisters (Anne-Marie Duff) Cunk on Earth (Diane Morgan), Fleishman Is in Trouble (Lizzy Caplan/Claire Danes), Industry (Marisa Abela/Myha'la Herrold), Physical (Rose Byrne), Poker Face (Ellen Barkin/Joseph Gordon-Levitt/Chloë Sevigny), The White Lotus (Sabrina Impacciatore)

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 245 Posts: 37613 View Predictions]

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Heptapod wrote:

I’m thinking Mass will pull a First Reformed and make it into a fairly open screenplay field while missing for its big acting contender.

Could happen and I would love to see it (Mass‘ screenplay was fantastic).

However I don’t think it’s ever said enough how GIGANTIC First Reformed‘s performance with critics was. Ethan Hawke swept, the screenplay almost had just as many wins with critics groups as The Favourite and the film was in 7th on metacritic’s aggregate.

First Reformed‘s critical performance still feels so shocking to this day lol.

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[kbc Joined: Sep 16th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1657 View Predictions]

#1204568149

wolfali wrote:

Could happen and I would love to see it (Mass‘ screenplay was fantastic).

It feels that original screenplay is crowded with contenders, so it’s only open in that a consensus five hasn’t formed yet but definitely not in terms of legit potential nominees. So Mass faces long odds against at least six acclaimed “international” films (Titane, Flee, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World, Parallel Mothers), two apparent BP nom locks Belfast and King Richard, A24’s indie darlings C’mon C’mon and Red Rocket, PTA’s Licorice Pizza, Netflix’s late-breaking heavyweight Don’t Look Up, Searchlight’s box office success The French Dispatch, plus Spencer has its stans, and I do stan Jockey myself.

To me it’s gonna be much more of a grudge match than adapted, where it looks as if it’s Power of the Dog ftw over fellow Netflix rivals The Lost Daughter and Passing unless Nightmare Alley really soars.

FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 245 Posts: 37613 View Predictions]

#1204580927

So <i>The Power of the Dog </i>will be ineligible at WGA because Jane Campion isn’t a member of the guild. Same with Belfast because of Branagh and Passing because of Hall.

WGA predictions

WGA for Adapted Screenplay

1. Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter
2. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan for Nightmare Alley
3. Ben Affleck, Matt Damon and Nicole Holofcener for The Last Duel
4. Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Sian Heder for CODA

6. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth for Dune
7. Stephen Karam for The Humans
8. Neil Purvis, Robert Wade, Cary Joji Fukunaga and Phoebe Waller-Bridge for No Time to Die
9. Steven Levenson for Tick, Tick… Boom
10. Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna for House of Gucci

WGA for Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza
2. Adam McKay and David Sirota for Don’t Look Up
3. Steven Knight for Spencer
4. Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos
5. Mike Mills for C’mon C’mon

6. Zach Baylin for King Richard
7. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman for The French Dispatch
8. Paul Schrader for The Card Counter
9. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch for Red Rocket
10. Callie Khouri and Tracey Scott Wilson for Respect

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[James Gibson Joined: Jul 8th, 2012 Topics: 0 Posts: 3011 View Predictions]

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wolfali wrote:

First Reformed‘s critical performance still feels so shocking to this day lol.

art winning