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The reason why Will Smith will prevail is because there isn’t a clear alternative to him.
Benedict Cumberbatch has his fans/votes. And so does Andrew Garfield (my personal winner). They will split the British white boy vote.
The “Hollywood Icon” and “overdue” status puts Will over the top in my opinion.
The reason why Will Smith will prevail is because there isn’t a clear alternative to him. Benedict Cumberbatch has his fans/votes. And so does Andrew Garfield (my personal winner). They will split the British white boy vote. The “Hollywood Icon” and “overdue” status puts Will over the top in my opinion.
I think Garfield is the passion vote, and Cumberbatch is the critical darling, but he’s playing an unlikeable character in a streaming movie with poor audience reception.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
The reason why Will Smith will prevail is because there isn’t a clear alternative to him.
Benedict Cumberbatch has his fans/votes. And so does Andrew Garfield (my personal winner). They will split the British white boy vote.
The “Hollywood Icon” and “overdue” status puts Will over the top in my opinion.
When Denzel gets his third for TTOM
Kidding 🙂
My gut feeling is that it’s going to be a fractured race.
Don’t throw objects at me, but in my humble opinion I don’t see Smith as overdue as, say, Di Caprio, Pitt or Phoenix.
He is a movie star, but can it be enough in a year when there are stronger contenders in stronger movies?
This season is so freaking long…I think Garfield is the passion vote, and Cumberbatch is the critical darling, but he’s playing an unlikeable character in a streaming movie with poor audience reception.
Unlikable characters won in the recent past.
Poor audience reception from whom? What it matters is whether Sag/Ampas/Bafta voters like his performance enough to choose him.I agree with you about Garfield.
Passion picks might give us a few surprises 🙂
When Denzel gets his third for TTOM Kidding
My gut feeling is that it’s going to be a fractured race. Don’t throw objects at me, but in my humble opinion I don’t see Smith as overdue as, say, Di Caprio, Pitt or Phoenix. He is a movie star, but can it be enough in a year when there are stronger contenders in stronger movies? This season is so freaking long… I was about to say that Benedict is the only one in a strong BP movie besides Will at the moment. But actually, a part of why TTOM is on the bubble is because it premiered later. If it’s in BP, TTOM and KR might be more on equal footing as middle of the pack nominees. KR missed an editing listing for BAFTA, and TTOM at least has a good shot at a cinematography nom. Contrary to what Anne Thompson thinks, I don’t see King Richard as some juggernaut in the BP race.
Will Smith is not on the Actors and Actors, unless he’s the mystery guest…
I’m starting to consider the idea of Denzel winning. SAG could easily want to award him again and he can win the Oscar with SAG only. It’s also really likely that the BAFTA jury will finally nominate him.
Will Smith is not on the Actors and Actors, unless he’s the mystery guest…
Will seems to be doing almost no campaigning this season, yet there’s people screaming they don’t want him to win because he’s “thirsty”…
Will Smith is not on the Actors and Actors, unless he’s the mystery guest…
Yeah I was thinking maybe he’s the mystery guest to be paired with Gaga….we’ll see
There’s only been once instance in this category where both GG acting winner lost at SAG to someone from a movie that didn’t get in SAG ensemble. (Johnny Depp – Pirates of the Carribean) Even the ones who lost GG who prevailed at SAG were in SAG ensemble nominees. It would mean SAG would be between Smith and Garfield, and Smith is the only ensemble nominee so he’d prob just win at SAG lol.
^ And Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York. Nicholson and Gere won the Globe. The latter had Chicago in ensemble.
Gangs was a late screener situation, I think? (which Power and Tick tick arent) but yes that too. Depp had the box office giant/career revival as a factor for him. I forget Lost in Translation and Pirates were the same year, otherwise Depp would’ve easily won GG that year lol.
Yes, please..
Oscars Underdogs: Nine Actors Who Deserve Voters’ Attention
Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey
In January 2021, Variety reviewer Peter Debruge wrote that “Jockey” gives Clifton Collins Jr. the role of his career, with the actor “delivering the performance of the 2021 Sundance Film Festival.” Around the same time, Variety’s Brent Lang wrote, “An Academy Award nod would be long overdue recognition for Collins, who does consistently solid work without ever seeming to have found that one role to move him out of ‘that guy’ roles and propel him to the A-list.” Debruge and Lang are very smart. Listen to them and see the film before voting.
FYC
Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Best Adapted Screenplay: David KajganichWill seems to be doing almost no campaigning this season
Why do people keep saying this lately? He absolutely has been, harder and earlier than anyone else this season. Some events were just cancelled by Omicron and probably his team doesn’t want to get overexposed in the media at the moment. The nomination is secure and after it happens, then they can ramp up the narrative again.
I was about to say that Benedict is the only one in a strong BP movie besides Will at the moment. But actually, a part of why TTOM is on the bubble is because it premiered later. If it’s in BP, TTOM and KR might be more on equal footing as middle of the pack nominees. KR missed an editing listing for BAFTA, and TTOM at least has a good shot at a cinematography nom. Contrary to what Anne Thompson thinks, I don’t see King Richard as some juggernaut in the BP race.
I actually agree with you on everything.
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