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Curious about Nishijima. I’m not at all convinced Bardem is making it all the way to the Oscars, and with release/visibility issues continuing to plague Cyrano, I think it’s possible Nishijima rides a Drive My Car love wave into the fifth slot.
This would be amazing, but I’m just not sure the industry is showing any signs they’re ready to break their dumb foreign language bias. He’s gotten some critics awards but unfortunately not much else and I don’t think it’s enough. In a fair world, he should be as locked as any of the top three, though.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.The reason why I don’t think Cumberbatch will win is because the love for TPOTD is more concentrated around Dame Jane Campion and not around the actors.
the love for TPOTD is more concentrated around Dame Jane Campion and not around the actors.
And yet Kodi Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner in supporting actor…
FYC:
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.
And yet Kodi Smit-McPhee is the frontrunner in supporting actor…
Yes,and that might partly be due to the relatively weak nature of the category. Dunst-Cumberbatch being in stronger categories makes it difficult for them to win. That being said,there is certainly passion for the actors but not to the level of the passion concentrated around Campion,just like the passion for Belfast is concentrated around Branagh.
On the other hand,the passion for King Richard is concentrated around Will Smith while the passion for Tick,Tick… Boom! is concentrated around Andrew Garfield.
Yes,and that might partly be due to the relatively weak nature of the category. Dunst-Cumberbatch being in stronger categories makes it difficult for them to win. That being said,there is certainly passion for the actors but not to the level of the passion concentrated around Campion,just like the passion for Belfast is concentrated around Branagh. On the other hand,the passion for King Richard is concentrated around Will Smith while the passion for Tick,Tick… Boom! is concentrated around Andrew Garfield.
Nomadland was considered to primarily a “Chloe Zhao” vehicle yet Frances took the Oscar which was foreshadowed by her 20+ critics wins in Best Actress. There can be both passion for Campion and the performances which is how Kodi took the Globe and why both Kodi and Cumberbatch are the critical darlings. The Shape of Water is a film that I would consider to have all of its passion concentrated on the director rather than the performances.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
On the other hand,the passion for King Richard is concentrated around Will Smith while the passion for Tick,Tick… Boom! is concentrated around Andrew Garfield.
Tick, Tick…Boom and King Richard are both weaker Best Picture contenders that only have passion for their acting. That’s not the case for The Power of the Dog (or Belfast and West Side Story) because there is also passion for the work of the directors alongside Cumberbatch, DeBose, Smit-McPhee etc rather than the passion only being around Campion and Spielberg’s directing achievements.
FYC:
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.
I do think there are tiers to the appreciation for TPOTD’s acting performances though. There may not be a huge gap between them, but Kodi’s performance seems the most appreciated followed by Benedict’s. And then there’s a larger gap between them and Kirsten.
Nomadland was considered to primarily a “Chloe Zhao” vehicle yet Frances took the Oscar which was foreshadowed by her 20+ critics wins in Best Actress. There can be both passion for Campion and the performances which is how Kodi took the Globe and why both Kodi and Cumberbatch are the critical darlings. The Shape of Water is a film that I would consider to have all of its passion concentrated on the director rather than the performances.
The shape of water got 3 acting oscar noms.
As per MC, Hawkins won a total of 15 awards. GDT won 17. Y’all will just say anything to prove your point.
As per MC, Hawkins won a total of 15 awards. GDT won 17. Y’all will just say anything to prove your point.
That’s one performance. Jenkins and Spencer received significantly less wins from critics. Kodi and Cumberbatch are the critics darling of their category and Dunst is #2 on the MC scorecard. There is a total of 44 wins from the TPOTD cast.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Yeah, this is a strange argument to make when the POTD cast has been doing extraordinarily well with critics groups and snagged three solo SAG nominations — once again, the most individuals noms netted by a film this year. There are many reasons why Cumberbatch might end up not taking home the Oscar, but I don’t think Campion is going to be one of them. I tend to believe that if this film is indeed going to win picture, director, screenplay and supporting actor — which is understandably unimaginable to some — it would be weird for the film’s lead, on whose shoulders the film rests and thus whose performance has to work for you to love this film this much, not to be swept up. I am just waiting to see what happens at SAG (as in, whether Smith or Garfield wins) and at BAFTA.
As per MC, Hawkins won a total of 15 awards. GDT won 17. Y’all will just say anything to prove your point.
And likewise Frances McDormand won a grand total of 19 awards (13 of which were wins with critics, including a London film critics circle win over Hawkins) and Saoirse Ronan won awards with 9 critics groups in that category that year. Comparatively Benedict Cumberbatch is the only person in his category so far to have double digit wins (17 compared to Nicholas Cage’s 9 and Andrew Garfield and Will Smith’s 4 wins apiece).
FYC:
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.
Benedict Cumberbatch is not Frances McDormand.
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
Is there a reason why Will Smith is hardly doing any oscar campaigning this season? I haven’t seen him do any press lately and the fact that he’s not part of Variety’s Actors on Actors is strange considering all the other frontrunners are involved, is he doing this on purpose?
If this continues, I feel like Andrew Garfield is going to take the Oscar this year, he’s literally everywhere and doing interviews with anyone who will listen…
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