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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 11)

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    BoBo
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    #1204752478

    You know what? That newcomer stat is too damn strong.

     

    Someone’s gotta go to make room for a Dinklage, Rex, Nishijima, Collins, Isaac, etc., and I think it’ll be Garfield that gets the boot.

    Many respect Garfield, but find the film insufferable. If it misses PGA tomorrow, it’s not going to be nominated for Picture.

     

    When a person wins the globe and misses the Oscar nom, it’s often from the comedy/musical category. Funnily, they’re usually replaced with one of the “losers” from that very same globe lineup.

    I feel Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem are going in as a package deal. He’s got Globe and SAG.

    Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith and Denzel Washington are contending for the win and will be in Picture contenders.

     

    It’s got to be Garfield that goes.

    He’s already a past nominee, so getting snubbed won’t really harm his career. In fact, one could say he would become this year’s Jake Gyllenhaal and people will still talk about the snub years later. That’s even better for his career if you think about it.

     

    Javier Bardem
    Benedict Cumberbatch
    Peter Dinklage
    Will Smith
    Denzel Washington

    Or a 40 year-old stat is broken.

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    #1204752495
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    Flickchick
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    #1204752498

    The academy already snubbed Garfield once in his ridiculous overlook for Social Network.  And he was great in the biggest movie of 2021.

    I think Bardem or Washington will miss, if there is a new nominee.  I honestly cant imagine why anyone would vote for Bardem.

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    jez89
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    #1204752500

    The academy already snubbed Garfield once in his ridiculous overlook for Social Network. And he was great in the biggest movie of 2021. I think Bardem or Washington will miss, if there is a new nominee. I honestly cant imagine why anyone would vote for Bardem.

    Why do people dislike Bardem/his performance so much?

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    BoBo
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    #1204752533

    Don’t forget, they snub “boys under 40” all the time in Lead Actor, especially when they’re not representing a Picture nominee.

    Taron Edgerton 2019, James Franco 2018, Jake Gyllenhaal 2015, Oscar Isaac 2014, just to name a few from recent years.

     

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204752540

    Don’t forget, they snub “boys under 40” all the time in Lead Actor, especially when they’re not representing a Picture nominee. Taron Edgerton 2019, James Franco 2018, Jake Gyllenhaal 2015, Oscar Isaac 2014, just to name a few from recent years.

    Franco was snubbed in the light of his allegations. That being said, all the other snubs are egregious

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    BoBo
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    #1204752542

    Yup, and Garfield will become the new egregious snub that is remembered for years and years.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204752579

    Garfield is not getting snubbed, people love this character and he is a very respected actor, and the film has enough support.

    All of those other cases were very easy to see coming. The only real surprise snub in this category the past couple decades is Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. Paul Giamatti for Sideways comes close but I only had him 5th that year and it was clear Million Dollar Baby was a very strong latebreaker, and Clint had precedent of directing himself to a nomination.

    If there’s one this year it’s Denzel. It’s often the person who is considered 4th in line that is the snub. That won’t be a surprise to me though.

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    Arias
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    #1204752625

    The general consensus is that the three frontrunners are Smith, Cumberbatch and Garfield. Although I prefer Cumberbatch among the three, I think the race might be between Smith and Garfield? I feel like Garfield becomes more competitive once nominated and the movie will play well among many above and below the line branches and connect with many academy members’ inner theatre-film kid passions.

    As for that fifth spot, I agree that with such a split field fighting for it, a passion pick might sneak thru. I am praying it’s Rex. It is wishful thinking but I do think Red Rocket will play well with the actors branch and could appeal to that indie-hip bloc. Problem for Rex, Cage appeals to the same group.

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    T3B
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    #1204752629

    Curious on LDC. I think for all his best actor nominations, he has had at least one supporting actor also nominated along with him. So if hanging on hope for him, one should also look at predicting Rylance or Hill for supporting.

    But the reverse is not so as supporting players(actress and actor) have gotten in without him though.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204752733

    Why do people dislike Bardem/his performance so much?

    Because it’s a total nothing burger. I can’t imagine being remotely interested or passionate about his performance once the movie is thankfully over. You might remember NK, but JB has done and can do so much more. This was an insult to his capabilities. He was fine. And fine is a four letter F-word.

    I doubt it. Tick, tick…BOOM! is likely to miss picture. Only twice in the past 15 years has the best actor winner’s picture failed to get nominated, and they were Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart and Forrest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland.

    Women in BA have been doing it for YEARS. More than time for the men to be shining lights in shitty movies. Garfield ftw – talented AND pretty.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    BoBo
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    #1204752775

    Yup.

    But still in the last 15 years, 2/3 of all Best Actress winners were in a Best Picture contender.

    Marion Cotillard, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Julianne Moore, Renee Zellweger were the five whose picture missed.

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