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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 13)

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    Frenchfrizzygirl
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    Dec 3rd, 2021
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    #1204812845

    I think the BAFTA miss and the TTB Oscar nom under-performance are probably too significant. Best Actor winners just don’t really win without a Picture nom anymore – Boseman couldn’t last year and Jeff Bridges was the last person to do it and the only one in the expanded Picture field era. His was a big career Oscar, which Garfield doesn’t have going for him. He could win SAG and has been campaigning like crazy for it, but even still I’d put his odds as pretty slim.

     

    And it’s a shame but I agree with you. Even Tom Hanks, a beloved actor who had just got the golden globe for his memorable performance in Cast Away, lost it at the end to Russel Crowe for his tremendous turn in Gladiator. The fact that the movie itself was not nominated didn’t help Hanks. It was in 2001.

    About Andrew : his time will come (unless his career gets down “a la Amy Adams” or “a la Michael Fassbender”…). I have faith : he’s great !

     

     

     

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    ravenprince22
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    #1204813993

    And it’s a shame but I agree with you. Even Tom Hanks, a beloved actor who had just got the golden globe for his memorable performance in Cast Away, lost it at the end to Russel Crowe for his tremendous turn in Gladiator. The fact that the movie itself was not nominated didn’t help Hanks. It was in 2001. About Andrew : his time will come (unless his career gets down “a la Amy Adams” or “a la Michael Fassbender”…). I have faith : he’s great !

    And then the next year’s winner wasn’t in a best picture nominated film.

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    BoBo
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1204814055

    Out of 93 Oscar ceremonies, only 20 men have won Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee.

    And they were…

     

    Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Forrest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
    Denzel Washington – Training Day
    Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas
    Tom Hanks – Philadelphia
    Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune
    Michael Douglas – Wall Street
    Paul Newman – The Color of Money
    Art Carney – Harry and Tonto
    Jack Lemon – Save the Tiger
    John Wayne – True Grit
    Cliff Robertson – Charly
    Lee Marvin – Cat Ballou
    William Holden – Stalag 17
    Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen
    Jose Ferrer – Cyrano de Bergerac
    Ronald Colman – A Double Life
    Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
    Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul
    Emil Jennings – The Last Command, The Way of All Flesh

     

    Draw whatever conclusions you want from that, but there they are.

    FYC:

    "Now We're Cookin'" - Son Lux & Randy Newman for Original Song

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    Frenchfrizzygirl
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    #1204814126

    Out of 93 Oscar ceremonies, only 21 men have won Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee. And they were… Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart Forrest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland Denzel Washington – Training Day Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas Tom Hanks – Philadelphia Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune Michael Douglas – Wall Street Paul Newman – The Color of Money Art Carney – Harry and Tonto Jack Lemon – Save the Tiger John Wayne – True Grit Cliff Robertson – Charly Lee Marvin – Cat Ballou Maximillian Schell – Judgement at Nuremmberg William Holden – Stalag 17 Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen Jose Ferrer – Cyrano de Bergerac Ronald Colman – A Double Life Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul Emil Jennings – The Last Command, The Way of All Flesh Draw whatever conclusions you want from that, but there they are.

     

    Indeed ! Just one mistake I think : Philadelphia was nominated as best picture wasn’t it ? Anyway… The statistics speak for themselves !

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    BoBo
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    #1204814129

    Actually, Philadelphia wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.

    I know, I had to do a double take when I was doing the research, lol.

    FYC:

    "Now We're Cookin'" - Son Lux & Randy Newman for Original Song

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    almanzarlamarcarlile
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    #1204814135

    I think Andrew will probably get an oscar eventually but the BAFTA miss ruined my slim hopes of this being his year. The BP miss further solidified that belief.

    I think Will has this. Obviously TPOTD did insanely well but King Richard still did pretty great, so this isn’t a Ma Rainey/The Wife situation.

    Emmy Actings FYCs:
    Comedy: Bill Hader & Quinta Brunson
    Drama: Jeremy Strong & Britt Lower
    Limited: Couldn't care less

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204814143

    I don’t think the BAFTA miss is necessarily what hurt Garfield’s slim chance. It’s the BP miss, although it is a little confusing that it still managed Editing. And ultimately it’s the fact that Netflix is 100% prioritizing TPOTD and therefore Cumberbatch that undercuts his chance as a sleeper.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #1204814402

    It’s so adorable that people still don’t think Will Smith is winning lol

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    kamila
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    #1204814796

    “Coming soon” they say. Way too late for a True Detective bump but wow Garfield has been busy.

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    alouise86
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    Feb 2nd, 2022
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    #1204814847

    “Coming soon” they say. Way too late for a True Detective bump but wow Garfield has been busy.

    This is a limited series that already has Emmy buzz. It will likely drop by June for eligibility but I wouldn’t count on it having more than one season. It’s based on the book of the same name by Jon Krakauer. Yes, Garfield has been busy, considering this just wrapped in December.

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    kamila
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    #1204814861

    This is a limited series that already has Emmy buzz. It will likely drop by June for eligibility but I wouldn’t count on it having more than one season. It’s based on the book of the same name by Jon Krakauer. Yes, Garfield has been busy, considering this just wrapped in December.

    And rightfully so with David Mackenzie directing and Dustin Lance Black writing. It looks great.

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    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204814873

    Out of 93 Oscar ceremonies, only 21 men have won Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee. And they were… Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart Forrest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland Denzel Washington – Training Day Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas Tom Hanks – Philadelphia Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune Michael Douglas – Wall Street Paul Newman – The Color of Money Art Carney – Harry and Tonto Jack Lemon – Save the Tiger John Wayne – True Grit Cliff Robertson – Charly Lee Marvin – Cat Ballou Maximillian Schell – Judgement at Nuremmberg William Holden – Stalag 17 Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen Jose Ferrer – Cyrano de Bergerac Ronald Colman – A Double Life Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul Emil Jennings – The Last Command, The Way of All Flesh Draw whatever conclusions you want from that, but there they are.

    That’s a lot, though. It’s a 3/10 chance.

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    marcelo
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    Nov 24th, 2011
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    #1204814916

    Out of 93 Oscar ceremonies, only 21 men have won Best Actor without being in a Best Picture nominee.

    And they were…

    Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Forrest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
    Denzel Washington – Training Day
    Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas
    Tom Hanks – Philadelphia
    Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune
    Michael Douglas – Wall Street
    Paul Newman – The Color of Money
    Art Carney – Harry and Tonto
    Jack Lemon – Save the Tiger
    John Wayne – True Grit
    Cliff Robertson – Charly
    Lee Marvin – Cat Ballou
    Maximillian Schell – Judgement at Nuremmberg
    William Holden – Stalag 17
    Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen
    Jose Ferrer – Cyrano de Bergerac
    Ronald Colman – A Double Life
    Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
    Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul
    Emil Jennings – The Last Command, The Way of All Flesh

    Draw whatever conclusions you want from that, but there they are.

    Judgement at Nuremberg was nominated for Best Picture.

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    VictorVincent
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    Feb 10th, 2022
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    #1204814934

    That’s a lot, though. It’s a 3/10 chance.

    It also seems like it started happening more regularly in recent Oscar history (last 30+ years)

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    VictorVincent
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    Feb 10th, 2022
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    #1204814944

    Ergo I’m still rooting for Andrew Garfield

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