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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 2)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204374044

    Continue in Part 2.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204374102

    Me realizing Adam Driver might not get a single nomination this year…

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204374104

    My skepticism with Don’t Look Up has a lot to do with Netflix’s slate. Tick, Tick…Boom! is apparently a huge play because it tested so well, TPOTD is an obvious priority with the 4 festivals and almost sure thing acting contenders. The Hand of God may be Sorrentino’s Roma, and it’s going to festivals and I think it’s being underestimated overall. That’s 3 films that I personally think seem better placed to get great audience responses.

    Not to mention, McKay got in with two films. That’s great and whatever but DLU has been a bit of a question mark from the early scripts to the lack of a festival push. I get that it has a packed cast. But a sample size of two is not some unbreakable stat, though I know many of you think DiCaprio’s presence makes it a BP film.

    McKay has been divisive in the past (Vice was horrible imo, but the late release was an incredible strategy bc divisive films can get in with late release strategies, the backlash starts to come later). Yeah ofc DLU can happen and there’s bit a lot of hype for it since it was announced. You don’t have to agree with me, but I am just skeptical.

    PTA has a pretty good overall record with his 8 films and many people aren’t putting in Soggy Bottom because they have the examples of Inherent Vice and Punch Drunk Love plus it’s not at the festivals. You can’t mean to tell me Adam McKay will ALWAYS serve (and he always has packed casts!)

    I think you’re letting your individual opinion of the DLU script color your perception about the movie’s Oscar chances too much.

    You talk about Tick Tick Boom testing so well, but you ignore the fact that Don’t Look Up also tested very well according to even more sources and that The Power of the Dog, as promising as it looks, hasn’t tested at all.

    You talk about The Power of the Dog going to film festivals, but you ignore the fact that (as a lower profile contender) it needs to go the festival route to build buzz while Don’t Look Up (as a huge starry movie) doesn’t need festivals at all to do well at the Oscars. Look at 2019. Marriage Story (the lower profile movie) went to all the film festivals while The Irishman (the huge starry movie) skipped most of them. Which of the two movies was Netflix’s main push and the bigger BP contender? Hint: Not the one that went to all the film festivals.

    You undermine Adam McKay’s track record saying he has just “two films”, but you ignore the fact that he still has a better record than Campion and Miranda, neither of who has had two BP films.

    The problem with PTA is that his films have only made BP when they star Daniel Day-Lewis. Otherwise, they tend to flop at the box office and only get acting and writing nominations. I think Soggy Bottom can get into a lineup of 10, but McKay definitely has a better recent track record than PTA.

    You seem to be coming from a position of already putting Don’t Look Up at the bottom instead of weighing every factor objectively and fairly.

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    wolfali
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    #1204374163

    1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    3. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
    4. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom
    5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

    6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
    7. Will Smith, King Richard
    8. Michael B. Jordan, A Journal for Jordan
    9. Antonio Banderas, Official Competition
    10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    George Ehret
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    #1204374180

    1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

    We have the same winner

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Music Forever
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    #1204374194

    Denzel Washington as Macbeth. That’s all.

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    kaziz
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    #1204374224

    Yeah ofc DLU can happen and there’s bit a lot of hype for it since it was announced. You don’t have to agree with me, but I am just skeptical.

    You seem to be coming from a position of already putting Don’t Look Up at the bottom instead of weighing every factor objectively and fairly.

    Strange way to respond to me when I said that pretty plainly.

    Most of what you’ve said is perfectly correct. Being skeptical that 2 films doesn’t make a pattern doesn’t invalidate my point, and we’re also talking about a film which apparently multiple cuts are being tested for. We don’t know when DLU is being released theatrically or on Netflix, but we know TPOTD is releasing on Netflix 24th Dec, which is much more like The Irishman than Marriage Story. Regardless, I’m not sure one was pushed more than the other? Netflix got behind both of them pretty solidly, The Irishman got 10 nods and no wins, Marriage Story 6 nods and 1 win, and that makes sense because films like Marriage Story/TPOTD aren’t going to be tech players — DLU probably will be a tech player, I don’t have any doubt about that.

    As of now, I just don’t know enough about DLU. But let’s be honest at least on one thing: you can’t compare DLU to The Irishman so plainly. One is a satirical comedy from a divisive director, the other is a prestige drama like TPOTD, and that too from Martin Scorsese. DLU may get in, sure, but it’s not analogous to The Irishman in genre or tone. That may actually mean I like it MORE because The Irishman was way too long and boring for me.

    I’m skeptical of DLU because there’s just a lot of unknowns about it, and because 2 films, while definitely impressive (point conceded re: Campion, Miranda, Sorrentino, Anderson) still doesn’t make an ironclad rule. Test screenings are…iffy to be honest, I’ve been in plenty where the film was awful but somehow the next day I’d read that it was really good or something (most notably I remember this happening with Downsizing, Beautiful Boy). I don’t know why TPOTD hasn’t “tested” but usually festivals are a way to do just that, a better way arguably. A festival for DLU would have helped clear up some unknowns. It may still play Telluride. Telluride isn’t the most friendly place for a satire/black comedy but DLU could pop up there.

    I don’t know why skepticism is so hard to take. One thing about this is that people overestimate big ensemble films, but literally every year the ones that make it big are not at all the big ensembles (hell not even SAG ensemble works that way). I don’t mean this rudely at all, but I think there’s some assumptions here that make you predisposed to DLU so you’re taking it as a given. OR, most likely, we’re both not capable of being fully objective because that’s impossible lol.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204374255

    Most of what you’ve said is perfectly correct. Being skeptical that 2 films doesn’t make a pattern doesn’t invalidate my point, and we’re also talking about a film which apparently multiple cuts are being tested for. We don’t know when DLU is being released theatrically or on Netflix, but we know TPOTD is releasing on Netflix 24th Dec, which is much more like The Irishman than Marriage Story. Regardless, I’m not sure one was pushed more than the other? Netflix got behind both of them pretty solidly, The Irishman got 10 nods and no wins, Marriage Story 6 nods and 1 win, and that makes sense because films like Marriage Story/TPOTD aren’t going to be tech players — DLU probably will be a tech player, I don’t have any doubt about that.

    As of now, I just don’t know enough about DLU. But let’s be honest at least on one thing: you can’t compare DLU to The Irishman so plainly. One is a satirical comedy from a divisive director, the other is a prestige drama like TPOTD, and that too from Martin Scorsese. DLU may get in, sure, but it’s not analogous to The Irishman in genre or tone. That may actually mean I like it MORE because The Irishman was way too long and boring for me.

    I’m skeptical of DLU because there’s just a lot of unknowns about it, and because 2 films, while definitely impressive (point conceded re: Campion, Miranda, Sorrentino, Anderson) still doesn’t make an ironclad rule. Test screenings are…iffy to be honest, I’ve been in plenty where the film was awful but somehow the next day I’d read that it was really good or something (most notably I remember this happening with Downsizing, Beautiful Boy). I don’t know why TPOTD hasn’t “tested” but usually festivals are a way to do just that, a better way arguably. A festival for DLU would have helped clear up some unknowns. It may still play Telluride. Telluride isn’t the most friendly place for a satire/black comedy but DLU could pop up there.

    I don’t know why skepticism is so hard to take. One thing about this is that people overestimate big ensemble films, but literally every year the ones that make it big are not at all the big ensembles (hell not even SAG ensemble works that way). I don’t mean this rudely at all, but I think there’s some assumptions here that make you predisposed to DLU so you’re taking it as a given. OR, most likely, we’re both not capable of being fully objective because that’s impossible lol.

    Don’t Look Up was filming until early this year, while The Power of the Dog and Tick Tick Boom finished filming last year. I don’t think Don’t Look Up still testing and not having a fixed release date means much, because it is clearly still in the editing phase while the other two are much closer to being finished. Even so, Adam McKay has said in an interview that it will be coming out in December and the Netflix chief has said that they are planning a theatrical window of 1-4 weeks for it. So far, everything seems to be going to plan.

    The Irishman was pushed more heavily than Marriage Story. There were more industry screenings for The Irishman than for Marriage Story. With director and editing nominations, The Irishman was also ahead of Marriage Story in the BP lineup.

    My point with the analogy is that Don’t Look Up has more Oscar pedigree than any other Netflix movie this year, just like The Irishman in 2019. Like I’ve already said, at the Oscars McKay has a better record than Campion and Miranda, and the cast of Don’t Look Up is also obviously a far bigger deal. McKay isn’t Scorsese, true, but he still has two BP films and two BD nominations. That’s more than Campion and Miranda.

    If test screenings are iffy (and I agree that they can be), I wonder why you brought them up in the first place as a point in favor of Tick Tick Boom.

    Skepticism is not hard to take at all. It’s just that each of your arguments is flawed and doesn’t really make sense for the reasons I’ve mentioned. Don’t Look Up could flop, sure, but so could The Power of the Dog. And I think it’s funny that you are suggesting I am biased when many people have pointed out your bias for The Power of the Dog. If anything, it feels like you’re deliberately playing down Don’t Look Up because you are predisposed to The Power of the Dog.

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    kaziz
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    #1204374276

    The Power of the Dog and Tick Tick Boom finished filming last year.

    Idk about Tick Tick Boom but TPOTD wrapped in May this year, not last year. Yeah it started filming in Jan, then NZ went into lockdown and they resumed around March/April.

    If test screenings are iffy (and I agree that they can be), I wonder why you brought them up in the first place as a point in favor of Tick Tick Boom.

    You can ask the others what the info was, but what was shared was not just that Tick Tick Boom tested well but that it would be Netflix’s main push because of that (which is obviously surprising because many/most of us had assumed TPOTD & DLU.

    My point with the analogy is that Don’t Look Up has more Oscar pedigree than any other Netflix movie this year, just like The Irishman in 2019. Like I’ve already said, at the Oscars McKay has a better record than Campion and Miranda, and the cast of Don’t Look Up is also obviously a far bigger deal. McKay isn’t Scorsese, true, but he still has two BP films and two BD nominations. That’s more than Campion and Miranda.

    Did you miss the part where I said “I concede” or “yes you’re correct”?

    Skepticism is not hard to take at all. It’s just that each of your arguments is flawed and doesn’t really make sense for the reasons I’ve mentioned. Don’t Look Up could flop, sure, but so could The Power of the Dog. And I think it’s funny that you are suggesting I am biased when many people have pointed out your bias for The Power of the Dog. If anything, it feels like you’re deliberately playing down Don’t Look Up because you are predisposed to The Power of the Dog.

    Isn’t that a reason for me to play down every movie other than TPOTD? Which…I’m not doing. I’ve been talking about Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter and many other films. I get it. You want a sick burn, but what you’re saying is a little silly. Yes, I’m more predisposed to TPOTD (just like you are to DLU) but luckily the Best Picture nominees are 10, not 1. Yes it could flop. What on earth do you want from me as opposed to the film because me saying “you’re correct” is not enough for you somehow. You’re being rude, quite literally you’re addressing me. Why do that if I’m SUCH A STAN?

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204374290

    Idk about Tick Tick Boom but TPOTD wrapped in May this year, not last year. Yeah it started filming in Jan, then NZ went into lockdown and they resumed around March/April.

    I don’t know, I was going by this piece which said they resumed in June of last year: https://i.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/film/121865693/jane-campion-movie-starring-cumberbatch-dunst-is-second-film-allowed-in

    Did you miss the part where I said “I concede” or “yes you’re correct”?

    I was responding to the part where you were questioning my comparison of Don’t Look Up and The Irishman.

    Isn’t that a reason for me to play down every movie other than TPOTD? Which…I’m not doing. I’ve been talking about Passing, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter and many other films. I get it. You want a sick burn, but what you’re saying is a little silly. Yes, I’m more predisposed to TPOTD (just like you are to DLU) but luckily the Best Picture nominees are 10, not 1. Yes it could flop. What on earth do you want from me as opposed to the film because me saying “you’re correct” is not enough for you somehow. You’re being rude, quite literally you’re addressing me. Why do that if I’m SUCH A STAN?

    This is a massive overreaction lol. I wasn’t being rude and I wasn’t trying for a sick burn, I was just responding to your accusation of how I was biased when I am not at all.

    I just thought the points you were raising didn’t make sense and I addressed them. There is no reason for you to be rude and get into a fight over this. I like a lot of your posts and I do think The Power of the Dog will be major, so this was entirely unnecessary.

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    kaziz
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    #1204374305

    Sigh. My point was simply that my response to you was littered with me saying you were right on X and Y and Z and you argued as if I had never conded anything at all and ended by telling me how bent I was on putting DLU down. I try quite hard to be niceand I’m pretty darn earnest, so not sure what else I can do.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204374307

    From what I know about Netflix’s behind the scenes activities, it seems as though they are campaigning Tick Tick Boom and PotD more than Don’t Look Up, but they could pivot once reactions for the films start coming out. I don’t know what Netflix thinks of DLU nor do I even know if it’s finished. I’ve only heard about reactions from one screening, and if there’s other cuts of the film being screened elsewhere they could be received differently to what was shown at that first screening. We don’t know how successful any of these films will be at the end of the day, but there are multiple factors to consider in this conversation

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Stank83
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    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204374324

    1. Will Smith (King Richard)
    2. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of The Dog)
    3. Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
    5. Adam Driver (Annette/House of Gucci)
    or:

    5. Micheal B. Jordan (A Journal For Jordan)

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    kaziz
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    #1204374330

    This is a massive overreaction lol.

    Okay. I’m sorry.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204374352

    Okay. I’m sorry.

    lol I apologize too. Everybody has their biases, and I have mine too. Maybe I was too quick to assume you were accusing me of not being earnest.

    I just think Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog are obviously Netflix’s two main pushes. Not really sold on Tick Tick Boom and I don’t really believe the rumors about it being Netflix’s main push at all.

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