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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 3)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204441262

    Looking at the Lead acting categories, a common trend for both is looking at which nominee is playing the most likable or sympathetic person. There are definitely exceptions, as there is with any rule, but it’s an ongoing trend. Looking at years with split fields or upsets in Best Actor with this in mind, these particular races stand out the most.

    2018: Rami Malek, playing an iconic singer who begins to discover his homosexuality during a time where homophobia is at an all-time high in the UK and eventually contracts and dies from AIDS, winning over Christian Bale, playing a war criminal Vice President who’s so ruthless even (at least some) Republicans hate him.

    2016: Casey Affleck, playing a depressed, mentally unstable janitor who lost his children years before and has just lost his brother, winning over Denzel Washington, playing an alcoholic who cheats on his wife and has cheated on her multiple times and is aggressive with her and his son.

    2014: Eddie Redmayne, playing Stephen Hawking as his career was beginning and right as his health started declining and his body becoming extremely frail, winning over Michael Keaton, playing a selfish and pretentious actor who finds some way to make everyone in his life hate him.

    2002: Adrien Brody, playing a literal Holocaust survivor who loses his family while in captivity, winning over Daniel Day-Lewis, playing a straight-up psychopathic murderer gangster.

    2001: Denzel Washington, playing a straight-up psychopathic murderer corrupt cop, winning over Russell Crowe, playing an extremely intelligent schizophrenic who has his life closely monitored by the US government as he does his studies.

    Obviously the one exception here is Denzel Washington, but of course that happened under circumstances involving Russell Crowe’s actions. Of course, while there are winners here who do play straight up villains (DDL in TWBB for example) they usually are undeniable and sweep the season. Like with Actress, some of the losers have certain sympathetic qualities (Washington facing poverty, Keaton being a washed up actor), however they weren’t likable enough in the eyes of the Academy.

    So looking at the contenders and trying to find the most likable or sympathetic character, Will Smith at least seems to be the one with that role. I know from reading these forums and talking to a couple of my friends who know more about sports than I do that he’s not considered the best person by a lot of people, however I don’t necessarily expect audiences to know or care about this. And apparently he has a performance that could pull it off. Benedict Cumberbatch has been raved about from people as well and the book is a winning part, but he’s not playing a good person, in fact his character is a pretty shitty one. He has one sympathetic quality in being a self-hating gay man, but that’s it. And from my understanding, Bradley Cooper doesn’t play a very likable character either and he eventually goes mad by the end (someone can correct me if I’m wrong).

    There’s other contenders we could talk about, but I already spent a long time writing this post lol. While it’s not impossible that a villainous role wins this year, it would probably be smarter to go with the more likable sympathetic role. And with that, I officially move Will Smith to my #1 slot and King Richard goes on my Best Picture top 10.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    schmids
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    #1204441288

    Looking at the Lead acting categories, a common trend for both is looking at which nominee is playing the most likable or sympathetic person. There are definitely exceptions, as there is with any rule, but it’s an ongoing trend.

    Please tell me you’re not including Affleck’s MBTS character in the likeable ones. He also won despite he himself not being likeable.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204441296

    Belfast is messing up categories. THR thinks Balfe and Dornan could go Lead so that Dench and Hinds could be in supporting. If Focus does that than they likely gave up on Soho actors and are rearranging belfast actors to cover as many categories as possible. Which means if Dornan makes it into Lead, who gets kciked out? Smith and Cumberbatch look locked so they stay. With Dornan in, only 2 spots left.

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    crabbie
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    #1204441307

    Dorian kicks out no one when the competition is too fierce unless Belfast is a top 2 contender even then I would say he will still miss because you already have Best Picture nominated actors (Smith, DiCaprio, Cooper, Cumberbatch). Dorian will get John David Washington’d at the end.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204441314

    Please tell me you’re not including Affleck’s MBTS character in the likeable ones. He also won despite he himself not being likeable.

    Sympathetic and likable do not go hand in hand all the time

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204441326

    Dorian kicks out no one when the competition is too fierce unless Belfast is a top 2 contender even then I would say he will still miss because you already have Best Picture nominated actors (Smith, DiCaprio, Cooper, Cumberbatch). Dorian will get John David Washington’d at the end.

    Haven’t seen the movie but of all Belfast cast that’s contending he seems like the easiest miss unless he goes Supporting after all.

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    crabbie
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    #1204441337

    Haven’t seen the movie but of all Belfast cast that’s contending he seems like the easiest miss unless he goes Supporting after all.

    Why is Jude Hill being ignored in the campaign? Isn’t he the lead of the film anyways even if he isn’t the heart of the film rests in his character…it’s stupid for Focus to sideline him like this.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204441344

    Why is Jude Hill being ignored in the campaign? Isn’t he the lead of the film anyways even if he isn’t the heart of the film rests in his character…it’s stupid for Focus to sideline him like this.

    Boy. Girls fare better in both Lead and Supporting for some reason. Jojo’s lead was sidelined too. THR thinks they could fraud him in Supporting which would be shameful. He’s the lead treat him like one.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204441352

    Why is Jude Hill being ignored in the campaign? Isn’t he the lead of the film anyways even if he isn’t the heart of the film rests in his character…it’s stupid for Focus to sideline him like this.

    Perhaps Focus is looking back on how Roman Griffin Davis missed despite campaigned by Searchlight? They also perhaps aware that male lead actor branch are reluctant towards kids that they decide to not campaign him anyway??

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    #1204441388
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    wolfali
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    #1204441484

    I can see Dornan kick out Cooper.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    crabbie
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    #1204441494

    Cooper is overdue an actor snub when DiCaprio has been experiencing that pre-Oscar (The Departed, Titanic) and don’t get me started on Phoenix’s snubs when he was snubbed for sublime work in Her, which was a Best Picture nominee and won Original Screenplay.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204441555

    I can see Dornan kick out Cooper.

    Imagine Razzie darlings Stewart, Dornan and Johnson Oscar nominated in the same year lmao

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204441559

    Imagine Razzie darlings Stewart, Dornan and Johnson Oscar nominated in the same year lmao

    I’m so here for this. Talke about rasberry on top.

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    Chitanda170
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