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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 3)

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    Lucas
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    #1204442384

    C’mon C’mon posters. Trailer tomorrow.

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    wolfali
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    #1204442390

    Am I the only person who thinks Oscar Isaac will get in finally with The Card Counter? He has solid reviews and he has been pretty buzzy lately.

    Depends how much Focus campaigns for it. If they put all their cards on Belfast then probably not but if they run individual campaigns for their other titles (e.g. Actor for Card Counter, crafts for Soho) I can see him having a chance.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204442536

    If Washington or Macbeth overall underperforms (or his performance is considered too cryptic or inward), i could see two free spots for newcomers to be fought for between Isaac, Dinklage, and Dornan (if he goes Lead).

    If it comes to this than The Dink gets in. Cyrano should play well with internationals and he’s beloved in the industry. I mean, we won the last Emmy for barely doing anything in S8 until he gave the infamous “the king should have the best story and who has a better story than Bran the Broken?” meme, er, speech in the finale (yes that speech happened stop pinching yourselves).  Moreover, everyone who had a movie at Venice or Telluride got “best performance of his/her career” type of reviews so that doesn’t mean much when literally everyone’s got them. Which is why KStew stands out. Her reviews surpass “best of her opus” type of praise and cross into GOAT.

    Oh and that ex porn star is not gonna happen even if critics throw him a heap of bones. AMPAS wants to embrace those actros like they wanted to embrace Tommy Wiseau. Means no.

     

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442554

    Depends how much Focus campaigns for it. If they put all their cards on Belfast then probably not but if they run individual campaigns for their other titles (e.g. Actor for Card Counter, crafts for Soho) I can see him having a chance.

    Obviously I can’t say what or how Focus will prioritize at all, but I really feel that if they go all in* on Belfast it’s going to backfire for them. For all the work some pundits are doing to hype it the reviews are not that strong.

    *Do not intend to keep making poker puns

    Oh and that ex porn star is not gonna happen even if critics throw him a heap of bones. AMPAS wants to embrace those actros like they wanted to embrace Tommy Wiseau. Means no.

    Is it happening? No. But much like Nic Cage with Pig for so long, I refuse to take him out of the longer considerations for now because the idea rules.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442561

    C’mon C’mon posters. Trailer tomorrow.

    God bless the return of hot Joaquin.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204442588

    Critics are one thing, AMPAS is another. The first question one should ask is is AMPAS going to watch a movie? Because they will watch what is considered a priority viewing and also movies whose concept appeals to them. That does not have to, and often doesn’t, overlap with critics tastes. Next question is whether they are going to like what they see cause they might not. Next question is if they liked what they saw how does it rank among movies/performances they liked? Not everything resonates the same way. You can like 10 performances but not all 10 will resonate equally.

    Point being, critical praise doesn’t hurt but they praise many movies and performances that don’t resonate with AMPAS for different reasons. Sometimes it’s the style. Sometimes it’s the genre. Sometimes it’s the character not performance but the character as a whole. Sometimes it’s the story. Etc. So among critically accliamed performances and movies, there are ones that you just know are not the AMPAS thing for reason X or Y or Z. King Richard is the AMPAS thing. The Power of the Dog is the AMPAS thing. etc. They are movies and performances that are praised but they are also something that AMPAS will watch and at least admire if not outright like. Unlike praised performances such as Driver in Annette and Patel in TGN (including movie praise) or from previous years The Lighthouse and Herreditary that AMPAS is neither gonna watch nor would like if they did. So where Belfast, Cyrano, Card Counter, etc fall decides the likely outcome.

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    kaziz
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    #1204442624

    Oh and that ex porn star is not gonna happen even if critics throw him a heap of bones. AMPAS wants to embrace those actros like they wanted to embrace Tommy Wiseau. Means no.

    Way harsh. There’s an article on Variety “It’s Okay Academy: You Can Nominate Simon Rex for Best Actor for Red Rocket.”

    Stranger things have happened. It feels a little like Bria Vinaite from The Florida Project or Daniela Vega from A Fantastic Woman. Both could have actually gotten in, IF the critics groups had embraced them, but they didn’t. Especially with A Fantastic Woman winning International Feature, it felt like such a missed opportunity to nominate the first trans actress 🙁 She got the reviews but not the critics groups, and both Vinaite and Vega were amazing. Truly brilliant.

    However, A24 is REALLY pushing Red Rocket! They may be able to push him just enough for critics groups. Again, probably not, and Oscar Isaac & Joaquin Phoenix seem much much better obviously. These two can definitely happen if the stars align. Isaac for sure could take 5 or 6 out of 30 critics awards and still make it, Phoenix perhaps less so because they may go with Screenplay instead and therefore less of an incentive to reward Phoenix.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204442648

    Again, enough with critics. They couldn’t get Hawke in cause First Reformed didn’t connect outside of critics circles. They couldn’t get Lupita in cause Us didn’t transcend the genre and therefore didn’t play well with the crowd that got Get Out in. Red Rocket can win all critics awards if it likes but Rex is not getting in because he’s an ex porn star. AMPAS is not that inclusive. They would nominate a respectable actor playing a porn star if the movie was accessible enough (Julianne Moore, Burt Reynolds in Boogie Nights) but a real porn star playing himself so to speak is pushing it. It’s just how they roll.

    So my point is that if it gets down to Cyrano, belfast and Card Counter actors, they are more likely to watch and like Cyrano and Belfast than Card Counter which is described as companion piece to First Reform, a movie they didn’t care about. And this is from someone who thought that Isaac could make 2 categories. But Dune is absolutely not happening for any actor cause reviews simply aren’t there (they are all solid in underdeveloped roles in a movie where the star is the spectacle and tech not people) and while CC got better reviews than expectd (relative to lackluster trailer), so did some other movies and performances in particular King Richard that produced the frontrunner not just a nomination hopeful.

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    kaziz
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    #1204442666

    Point being, critical praise doesn’t hurt but they praise many movies and performances that don’t resonate with AMPAS for different reasons. Sometimes it’s the style. Sometimes it’s the genre. Sometimes it’s the character not performance but the character as a whole. Sometimes it’s the story. Etc.

    I see your point but I think you also might be missing that, after festivals, the power shifts to critics in a very major way. There’ll be a torrent of critics groups who will be voting & every year, they do shape who will get nominated.

    Yes, genre is one thing that leaves people out in the cold. Collette in Hereditary swept, N’yongo in Us swept, but neither made it. Dunst in Melancholia was everrrrrywhere, but they’d already decided to punish Lars Von Trier lol. But these are still mostly exceptions. Some directors have a problem getting in with AMPAS. Gus Van Sant, David Lynch, Sean Baker, Kelly Reichardt, Lynne Ramsay etc. But at some point or another an overdue director gets in and then it’s smooth sailing. Most directors who were snubbed a bajillion times have gotten in now (Chloe Zhao is a great example actually).

    But mostly, critics groups faves do get in!

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    vinny
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    May 20th, 2011
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    #1204442671

    Never thought I would read Simon Rex and Oscar in same sentence but seeing a lot of people saying it lol

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442674

    Way harsh. There’s an article on Variety “It’s Okay Academy: You Can Nominate Simon Rex for Best Actor for Red Rocket.” Stranger things have happened. It feels a little like Bria Vinaite from The Florida Project or Daniela Vega from A Fantastic Woman. Both could have actually gotten in, IF the critics groups had embraced them, but they didn’t. Especially with A Fantastic Woman winning International Feature, it felt like such a missed opportunity to nominate the first trans actress 🙁 She got the reviews but not the critics groups, and both Vinaite and Vega were amazing. Truly brilliant. However, A24 is REALLY pushing Red Rocket! They may be able to push him just enough for critics groups. Again, probably not, and Oscar Isaac & Joaquin Phoenix seem much much better obviously. These two can definitely happen if the stars align. Isaac for sure could take 5 or 6 out of 30 critics awards and still make it, Phoenix perhaps less so because they may go with Screenplay instead and therefore less of an incentive to reward Phoenix.

    I hate doing the “blank is the blank of this year” thing. But I’m seeing a lot of parallels for Rex this year with Adam Sandler. Great performance and a potential unorthodox nomination that has enthusiasm but I think will ultimately miss, sadly. Maybe I’m also just feeling the parallels because of this, haha.

    I’m also just skeptical of A24’s campaign strength if they’re also going to push C’mon C’mon. They’ve gotten a lot better at campaigning! But they’re still not…great. They do seem to be making a real push for Red Rocket at the moment, though.

    Anyway, the point of this post I guess is that Adam Sandler should have been in for Uncut Gems and I’m still mad about it.

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    kaziz
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    #1204442683

    I hate doing the “blank is the blank of this year” thing.

    Lol yeah I feel you on that because comparisons assume two things are similar enough and literally no two things are ever similar enough. I meant it terms of how subversively great it would be, Rex feels similarly subversive to me as Vinaite or Vega would have, but his film & context & studio = all different. I’ll withhold judgment on A24 till a little later in the year, some years they really whiff it, some years it works.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442724

    So my point is that if it gets down to Cyrano, belfast and Card Counter actors, they are more likely to watch and like Cyrano and Belfast than Card Counter which is described as companion piece to First Reform, a movie they didn’t care about. .

    To be fair, First Reformed got a screenplay nom and I really don’t think Ethan Hawke missed by very much. And there is the factor that A24 did really miss with the campaign for that one, also. (I am mad to this day about the Hawke snub.) So I don’t think they just entirely didn’t care about it and critics rallying for it did have a pull.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204442765

      I’ll withhold judgment on A24 till a little later in the year, some years they really whiff it, some years it works.

    I think I have a grudge against A24 because there have been so many movies I’ve loved and wanted rewarded that they flopped on, haha. They’ve admittedly gotten better I’m just still scorned several times over.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204442985

    A reminder that Benedict Cumberbatch despite being good in the role, should have never been nominated for an Oscar for The Imitation Game when superior and more memorable performances such as Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler (maybe Gyllenhaal’s greatest performance ever until now), David Oyelowo in Selma, and Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel were all completely snubbed and left out of the conversation.

    Eh… Idk, the Cumberbatch nom that year was pretty fair. It’s not like there’s a huge gulf between Cumberbatch’s turns and Oyelowo’s, for instance. Nightcrawler wasn’t that acclaimed by the Academy, so it’s no surprise it wasn’t nominated. Even Bradley Cooper who no one predicted for a nomination, would have been regarded as a snub if he wasn’t nominated, due to him being the best part of his film (which, unreasonably, got in in a ton of categories). I think people forget how tough some of these Best Actor contests are.

    That being said, I would agree that Carell should have taken a Supporting Actor placement (instead of a Leading Actor one) over Robert Duvall’s filler nomination for The Judge.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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