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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 4)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204464902

    People keep using Best Picture as to predict a category (and I get that, I sometimes do its myself) but at the end of the day the only reason the trend has been in place for so long is because being in a picture nominee gives you the most visibility.

    Even without the Picture snub (Ma Rainey was probably 10th though) lots of academy members saw Boseman’s film, they just liked Hopkins’ performance more even though he had less of a narrative.

    Visibility is one factor for sure but the other factor is that people to tend to like performances in movies they love more. You can love a performance in a mediocre movie but it won’t stay with you the same as a performance you love in a movie you also love.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204464908

    The Nightmare Alley trailer looked amazing but it didn’t really give me vibes for a Cooper nomination. Just me?

    It’s just a teaser so I won’t get carried away but I agree with you. The movie feels pretty genre and Cooper looks very stoic in it. I was sure all this while that he would get nominated because I assumed the movie would be top 5 but I can see him getting the De Niro in Irishman treatment. But let’s see how it shakes out…

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    NevadaR
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    #1204464931

    People keep using Best Picture as to predict a category (and I get that, I sometimes do its myself) but at the end of the day the only reason the trend has been in place for so long is because being in a picture nominee gives you the most visibility. Even without the Picture snub (Ma Rainey was probably 10th though) lots of academy members saw Boseman’s film, they just liked Hopkins’ performance more even though he had less of a narrative.

    I agree. Even with a BP nom for Ma Rainey Boseman would have still lost. They liked Hopkin’s performance more and that’s all there is to it.

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    kbc
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    #1204464964

    Perhaps if it’s not picked up for this year (considering the heavy battle in best actor), it will be for 2022.

    Prize-worthy performances did not feature highly this year. Perhaps the most likely candidate will be Ben Foster’s outstanding work in Barry Levinson’s middling Holocaust film The Survivor. Based on a jaw-dropping true story, it concerns Harry Haft, a Polish Jew interned in Auschwitz who was recruited as a bare-knuckle boxer by the Nazis and forced to fight his fellow inmates to the death.

    Toronto Film Festival — Thai tale to the rescue –Documentaries and the dramatisation of a real-life cave drama perform best in a mixed bag lacking the heavy hitters of Venice

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    Gwen
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    #1204465011

    Oooh weee the ones that say Will Smith is a slam dunk! I get it. I really do, but that whole Narrative thing… don’t mean a thang when you’ve watched TPOTD and seen what Cumberbatch can do. Like I said before, Will Smith will have to be brilliant to make this his. Brilliant honey, Cumberbatch set the mark.

    I mean… That’s the thing for me, what Cumberbatch does here, in specific scenes (when he is alone… I know who’ve seen the movie will understand what I’m referring to)… is outstanding. I like Will but it’s hard for me to imagine that he can do better than BC in TPOTD. That said, I’m curious to see King Richard as well and we all are aware that the best performance doesn’t always win!

    2022 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Picture: TITANE, L'EVENEMENT
    Best Director: JULIA DUCOURNAU
    Best Actress: JODIE COMER
    Best Actor: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH
    Best Supporting Actress: ANN DOWD, TONI COLLETTE
    Best Supporting Actor: WILLEM DAFOE, RICHARD JENKINS

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    Ava96
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    #1204465040

    People who think that the narrative wins over an undeniable performance, need to remember what happened last year.

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    kbc
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    #1204465064

    People who think that the narrative wins over an undeniable performance, need to remember what happened last year.

    And what if the narrative is aligned with an undeniable performance, as we could see this year with Will Smith?

    And what if both performances are undeniable… other intangibles come into play, most likely.

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    Ava96
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    #1204465075

    And what if the narrative is aligned with an undeniable performance, as we could see this year with Will Smith?

    And what if both performances are undeniable… other intangibles come into play, most likely.

    You can easily compare the reviews and raves that both of these actors are receiving from critics.

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    kbc
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    #1204465080

    You can easily compare the reviews and raves that both of these actors are receiving from critics.

    Not that critics vote on Oscars….

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    JV
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    #1204465083

    People keep using Best Picture as to predict a category (and I get that, I sometimes do its myself) but at the end of the day the only reason the trend has been in place for so long is because being in a picture nominee gives you the most visibility. Even without the Picture snub (Ma Rainey was probably 10th though) lots of academy members saw Boseman’s film, they just liked Hopkins’ performance more even though he had less of a narrative.

     

    Remember that Gary Oldman pushed Darkest Hour to a Best Picture nomination.

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    JV
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    #1204465087

    New Rolling Stone article about Cumberbatch and TPOTD arguing he is the unequivocal frontrunner. Say what you want but he has the better campaign. Smith has none to speak of (which will probably change but these early moves do actually make a difference).

    September and people are already arguing about who has the better campaign ? Lol

    No, he doesn’t. I don’t think Will Smith is a shoe in like everyone is saying, but that’s not true. They didn’t even begin the campaign yet.

    Speaking about studios, Warner Bros is a better campaigner than Netflix, who failed to get a Boseman win, and failed to get Boseman a Supporting Actor nomination. Meanwhile, Jared Leto had Oscar buzz for a movie like Little Things, thanks to Warner Bros campaign.

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    dee mura
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    #1204465328

    Stat is meant to be broken

    Also in Chadwick’s case, was it really Netflix’ failure or Anthony Hopkins was just better?

    Narrative sure means something (or not), but we can only predict for now. We still have six months after all, that’s why saying one has a better campaign or one surely sweeps doesn’t make any sense.

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204465398

    September and people are already arguing about who has the better campaign ? Lol No, he doesn’t. I don’t think Will Smith is a shoe in like everyone is saying, but that’s not true. They didn’t even begin the campaign yet. Speaking about studios, Warner Bros is a better campaigner than Netflix, who failed to get a Boseman win, and failed to get Boseman a Supporting Actor nomination. Meanwhile, Jared Leto had Oscar buzz for a movie like Little Things, thanks to Warner Bros campaign.

    What could have Netflix done more? He simply didn’t have the performance to win over Hopkins.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204465428

    Hopkins won because The Father had a late rise as it got seen by more people. It was #2 or #3 in Best Picture when it was all said and done, it got a surprise Production Design nomination, arguably a surprise Editing nomination, and overtook Nomadland in Adapted Screenplay at the last minute. This is more of an opinion on my part, but I think Zeller was probably #6 in Director over Aaron Sorkin. And yeah, there are a lot of people who thought Hopkins was better, myself included. That’s pretty much how it happened. If The Father didn’t have that surge, Chadwick would’ve won.

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204465443

       Just last year we saw Chadwick Boseman lose with one of the biggest narratives in Oscar history having won at SAG, Critics Choice and the Globes even though his film was quite widely seen and was nominated for 5 Oscars. Why? Because Hopkins’ performance ultimately had too much passion to overcome and his film had more recency. 

    Hopkins had more passion among people that mattered aka voters.

    Globes – were too scared not to vote for Boseman considering they were the target of constant #sowhite backlash. They don’t vote for the Oscars.

    Critics Choice – like critics before them, who would have supported Hopkins otherwise since that’ the kind of performance they love, they fell for death + BLM optics and didn’t risk possible controversy if they picked someone else. They don’t vote for the oscars.

    SAG – you bet that influencers and DJs didn’t see Hopkins but anyway that’s the kind of SAG voters that are turning SAG into much less accurate predictor than it used to be. The AFTRA hacks. Not all of SAG overlaps with AMPAS actor’s branch, thank goodness in this case.

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