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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 5)

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    diego
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    Dec 10th, 2019
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    #1204514617

    we talking winners now? Did nobody learn from last year when not one of the favorites pre award season won the awards?

    To be fair, Hopkins was the preseason favorite.

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    NevadaR
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1204514631

    To be fair, Hopkins was the preseason favorite.

    Just because we assumed Boseman was Supporting. Once he was put in Lead Hopkins stopped being the favorite.

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    Donda
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    Jul 25th, 2021
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    #1204514638

    . If I remember correctly cuz I asked the same exact question two years ago and I forgot who it was that explained why but the gist of it was Bafta cuz it has been the most accurate the past years

    In split races :
    Bafta : Affleck (Washington 2 time winner) , Hopkins (Boseman)
    SAG : McConnaughey (Ejiofor), Bridges (First), Penn (Rourke)
    Benedict is not beating a huge American and INTERNATIONAL star like Will Smith

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204514659

    This is a really sticky situation. King Richard literally only played Telluride and is releasing Nov 19th which is a TERRIBLE date for a non-franchise festival film to release no matter how much of “crowd pleaser” it supposedly is unless it is looking for that critics groups boost which doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the film.

    People will be flocking to Eternals, Matrix, not to mention the late contenders… Will Smith cannot win on narrative alone (we just made that mistake with Chadwick Boseman), so… I really need to see more indicators of passion honestly!

    All that will be good news for Cumberbatch who has by far the most passion that I can tell, so… why is Will Smith at the top again?

    King Richard is also playing Mill Valley , an important legacy fest in California, and of course is the closing night film at the high-profile AFI festival.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Stefania
    Joined:
    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204514713

    This is a really sticky situation. King Richard literally only played Telluride and is releasing Nov 19th which is a TERRIBLE date for a non-franchise festival film to release no matter how much of “crowd pleaser” it supposedly is unless it is looking for that critics groups boost which doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the film. People will be flocking to Eternals, Matrix, not to mention the late contenders… Will Smith cannot win on narrative alone (we just made that mistake with Chadwick Boseman), so… I really need to see more indicators of passion honestly! All that will be good news for Cumberbatch who has by far the most passion that I can tell, so… why is Will Smith at the top again?

    I don’t know why I was convinced it was releasing in December. Anyway, “King Richard” will not be a critics darling and it has skipped an opportunity to be seen at festivals so far. If the box office is also disappointing, as you suggest, then Will Smith has to start campaigning more, like actually showing up at events, not publishing memoirs and releasing specials on Netflix only.

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204514723

    Why is no one talking about DiCaprio? Not for the win, but the nomination seems prettyyyy likely. He was nominated for his last three movies and he’s getting nominated for KotFM too, so it seems like this will connect them and continue the streak.

    Personally I don’t know what to make of DLU. I found the script horrible for the most part and the clip cringeworthy. I don’t want to underestimate the fact that McKay is in the Academy’s wheelhouse and that voters care about climate change, so I have DLU and Leo in my predictions, but I’m not particularly looking forward to this movie. It’ll be a huge hit on Netflix, probably funny in parts (like the script) and Leo is someone who ALWAYS delivers, but it won’t win any awards in my opinion. It will be more divisive than anything else.

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    Stank83
    Joined:
    Mar 8th, 2020
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    #1204514729

    Golden Globe (Just because something is not broadcast on TV does not mean it does not exist)

    No one will give a fuck about the Globes this year.
    They won’t have any type of influence on the Oscar race.

    It’s just the HFPA’s pathetic and desperate attempt to try to stay relevant.

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    Gwen
    Joined:
    May 15th, 2019
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    #1204514887

    Yeah, seems like Cumberbatch is going to win easily that Bafta.

    I’m hesitant to predict that, thought I’d be over the moon if it happens, because Cumberbatch was nominated for the Bafta seven times (since 2005!) before winning his first in 2019 (Patrick Melrose). He didn’t win even for the iconic Sherlock! Would they award him again in such a short time? If he’s undeniable… And imho he is!, but for them? Will see…

    2022 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Picture: TITANE, L'EVENEMENT
    Best Director: JULIA DUCOURNAU
    Best Actress: JODIE COMER
    Best Actor: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH
    Best Supporting Actress: ANN DOWD, TONI COLLETTE
    Best Supporting Actor: WILLEM DAFOE, RICHARD JENKINS

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    deemura
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1204515119

    I’m manifesting Benedict to win that golden dildo even harder now just to see the meltdown

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204515137

    I’m manifesting Benedict to win that golden dildo even harder now just to see the meltdown

    The Globes is irrelevant this year. It’s highly likely Cumerbatch will take CC + BAFTA which will be enough to get that Oscar. Will Smith’s narrative is unequivocally strong and he is seen as overdue, but Cumberbatch’s industry prestige in the past decade has crafted a narrative of his own. The industry adores Cumberbatch and TPOTD could very well be his time with the physical capabilities and method acting procedures he was involved in.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204515156

    People keep bringing up Will Smith’s narrative as a reason why he’s supposedly “locked” for the win and I do think his narrative can drive him to a win but was that not the case with Glenn Close and Chadwick Boseman?

    With how the academy has become more and more international with the influx of new members with each passing year you can no longer win based solely on narrative in a leading category unless the passion for your performance outweighs the rest of your competition. Renee Zellweger and Joaquin Phoenix had stronger narratives but they had a lot more things going for them in critical and industry passion for their performances (Lupita was quite literally the only person with more critics wins than Zellweger in 2019) that helped them to be strong enough to overcome the Marriage Story duo.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    Oscirus Jones
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    Mar 8th, 2021
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    #1204515166

    it would be one thing if will smith was in perpetual oscar bait and losing but he’s legit been in trash  these past 20 years I dont imagine theres as big of a narrative as people think. I also think that bafta has to be salivating at the mouth to award denzel, if anybody this season has a legit overdue narrative, its denzel at the baftas.

    That being said, the race to the oscars will be quite exciting this year. Critic awards will probs tell us more than they usually do this year.

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204515172

    Narrative shmarrative. Doesn’t matter without the right role and movie.

    Zellweger comeback wouldn’t mean s*** if she didn’t impress as Judy and was deemed the best performance among candidates.

    Boseman narrative was build around a mediocre movie that missed Picture which was a death knell. Narrative pushers ignored that red flag thinking that he would overcome it, and also ignored competing performance where at least 2 (Hopkins and Ahmed) were stronger and in nominated movies. The rest is history but not the one that those who were blinde dby (self-created) narrative expected.

    Phoenix played an iconic character in a historical boxoffice smash (first R rated movie to make over 1 billion). Too big to ignore. The other actor who won for the same character was in a 1 billion smash. So when it comes to populist characters, boxoffice matters. Too big to ignore doesn’t get ignored.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204515196

    With how the academy has become more and more international with the influx of new members with each passing year you can no longer win based solely on narrative in a leading category unless the passion for your performance outweighs the rest of your competition.

    Very much agree with this. Narratives are becoming weaker and weaker each year and cannot offset the lack of passion for a performance. The international body, but also younger members becoming more predominant in the Academy has developed an affinity to voting for performances they are passionate about over narrative. That’s not to say narrative is futile, which is a bit reductive. Yuh-Jung Youn won who had quite the historical narrative, but also passion based on her slaughter of critics awards and Minari nominations. So for me to envision Smith as the Oscar winner I would have to see King Richard make a similar box office revenue to The Blind Side or see King Richard be nominated for Original Screenplay (not just picture), which would indicate possible across the board votes for Smith.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    loudtoilet
    Joined:
    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204515226

    Very much agree with this. Narratives are becoming weaker and weaker each year and cannot offset the lack of passion for a performance. The international body, but also younger members becoming more predominant in the Academy has developed an affinity to voting for performances they are passionate about over narrative. That’s not to say narrative is futile, which is a bit reductive. Yuh-Jung Youn won who had quite the historical narrative, but also passion based on her slaughter of critics awards and Minari nominations. So for me to envision Smith as the Oscar winner I would have to see King Richard make a similar box office revenue to The Blind Side or see King Richard be nominated for Original Screenplay (not just picture), which would indicate possible across the board votes for Smith.

    Yes, international body would be passionate about that historical narrative and Zhao’s, not so much about some other historical or personal narratives that were popular around here but flopped.

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