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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 5)

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    veronikavoss
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    #1204545501

    Kind of tired of these comparisons to Hopkins though. No one will inspire the same level of passion. I think Hopkins would have won over anyone in any year with that performance. He was a beast.

    I’m not the one who started with the Hopkins comparisons, that’s the example being invoked to show why Benedict could win with the BAFTA. But they’re completely different types of performances, and Smith’s movie will likely go into the night stronger than Ma Rainey did last year.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204545719

    Really? I’m such a huge Cumberbatch skeptic, I’ve never really loved in much except Sherlock maybe, but damn did he blow my socks off. I do think he lacked moments for emotional catharsis and sometimes that makes the difference. Hopkins had many such moments, in TPOTD, Dunst had such moments, but Cumberbatch didn’t but I do think it’s a stronger performance than 8/10 winners from 2010-2019 (won’t say who, don’t want stan wars lol)

    I was gonna have a moan about this, but looking back you have a point… Firth isn’t really that special in The King’s Speech. Not bad, just not great.

    Day-Lewis is a very odd win, as I feel like it was more about him resembling Lincoln. In hindsight, Denzel in Flight is a better performance, easily – better film, too. And Joaquin Phoenix in The Master is often regarded as one of the best performances of the decade. Day-Lewis isn’t bad, but, to me, he didn’t quite bring the A-Game that he has in films like In The Name Of The Father, Phantom Thread and – of course – There Will Be Blood. It doesn’t really feel like an Oscar-winning role, even if it is definitely a very solid performance. Looking at it, though, I think the reason he won might have been to do with neither Bradley Cooper or Hugh Jackman (the only other two in Best Picture nominees) having quite so strong an overall career as Day-Lewis. And, also, I don’t think either is playing as interesting a character as Day-Lewis, even if I probably prefer Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook.

    McConaughey’s win does feel much more deserved and it’s a phenomenally well-done film. It’s something I thought would be really dull when I read about it, but it’s kinda the opposite. A bizarrely watchable film. All the same, Chiwetel Ejoifer is brilliant in 12 Years A Slave and that’s definitely the better overall film. And the un-nominated Oscar Isaac is brilliant in Inside Llewyn – a slightly better film than Dallas Buyers Club and a film that critics, nowadays, hold in higher repute. But I think the main criticism of McConaughey’s win comes from DiCaprio not winning for what has become regarded, in recent years, as probably his magnum-opus.

    Not seen The Theory Of Everything, but it feels strange that Carell (a strong supporting performance that it’s very hard, for me, to quantify as a lead) and Bradley Cooper (a very fine portrayal in a very fine film) were nominated over Jake Gyllenhaal and Ralph Fiennes – in easily two of the decade’s best performance in films that the Academy clearly liked, to some extent. It’s also odd that Redmayne wins over Cumberbatch – who was in the more well-regarded sorta-period-piece British film about a Math Magician. And it’s even more odd that he won over Michael Keaton in a film which he is the best part of (which, also, won Best Picture)…

    DiCaprio’s win for The Revenant was inevitable, but I find it similar to Day-Lewis in Lincoln in that the film and performance are not all that great. Revenant and Lincoln are both very solid films, but they can hardly be held in the same regard as their directors’ and lead performers’ other works. That said, 2015 is a v. weak year in Best Actor (all the great male performances ended up being pushed in Supporting Actor – Michael B. Jordan and Michael Fassbender are the exceptions), so it’s hard to complain that much.

    Casey Affleck deserved to win, even though he’s not a great guy. This is probably the objective best winner of the decade, up until this point.

    Like Day-Lewis and DiCaprio, Oldman’s win is inevitable. But it’s a much weaker film than Day-Lewis and DiCaprio’s I feel. Doesn’t help that 2017 had a good star-making turn from Timothee Chalamet, a great star-making turn from Daniel Kaluuya, an un-nominated career-saving performance from Robert Pattinson and Daniel Day-Lewis’ final tour-de-force. Gary Oldman’s somewhat silly performance doesn’t hold up, comparatively, esp. given he is much better in Tinker Tailor and Mank.

    Rami Malek is good in Bohemian Rhapsody. But he didn’t deserve an Oscar, I feel. Christian Bale is better in Vice, but it doesn’t feel like he should have won. Viggo Mortensen is superb in Green Book, but Mahershala Ali is slightly better than him, so it would be weird for him to win. Not seen At Eternity’s Gate, but, from all reports, it’s a decent film with a great Defoe turn, which doesn’t really make me think he deserved to win… Out of the nominees, Bradley Cooper was easily the most deserving. However, the un-nominated Ethan Hawke gave the best performance of the year.

    Yeah, Joker’s controversial. But I think we’re lying if we don’t admit, on some level, that Joaquin Phoenix is giving some kind of tour-de-force in it. And it’s easily the winner from this decade that will be talked about the most decades from now… It’s certainly the most iconic performance from an Actor who’s won in this category since Silence Of The Lambs, if not before then. If not ever, to be honest. Yes, I get some people really don’t like Joker. But it’s a film and a performance that people will talk about decades from now in a way that won’t with, say, Colin Firth in The King’s Speech. (All things considered, though, this was a pretty great year for the category and I have no complaints if Sandler, DiCaprio or Driver had won).

    So, basically, I only have a huge amount of praise for three of them – which is pretty disappointing, as I literally agree with most of the wins in Supporting Actor over the last ten years.

    This year I feel like Will Smith will win, but it will be a performance of the ilk of Oldman, Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and DiCaprio… in that, it’s a good performance, but not one for the ages, if you like.

    In ten years time, someone will write a similar post to this and say that Cumberbatch probably deserved to win more than Will Smith.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204545732

    Kind of tired of these comparisons to Hopkins though. No one will inspire the same level of passion. I think Hopkins would have won over anyone in any year with that performance. He was a beast. Cumberbatch just needs the voters to consider him better than Smith. He has more critical acclaim but will it matter? Maybe. Maybe not. People should be allowed to root for him and consider him a threat. No one is 100% safe until they hold that Oscar.

    I think it’s, also, hard to compare Smith to Boseman.

    Boseman’s film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. Smith’s film probably will be.

    Chadwick Boseman was dead and was universally-loved. Will Smith is alive and might not be so universally loved, if this Anti-Vaxx thing is true.

    I get the impression the performances are a different style, too. Both dominate their films, I get that impression – but Smith is a domineering father figure. Boseman was a vain and monstrously insecure young upstart.

    Cumberbatch and Hopkins are, also, playing extremely different characters… For one, I get the impression Cumberbatch is significantly more dislikeable than Hopkins. And, even though they are both British, Cumberbatch is playing a character with an American accent.

    All the same, I agree that Cumberbatch will get more votes than Will Smith at BAFTA – I just don’t see a stereotypical crowd-pleaser like King Richard being the BAFTAs thing nowadays. Funnily enough, I see Denzel Washington winning here, maybe. Shakespeare’s the kind of thing the BAFTAs go in for and it’s an artsy film that they now seem to like… Also, Denzel is 100% overdue at BAFTAs, so he has a good narrative for them to vote for him.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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    Sab227
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    #1204545861

    I can see Benedict Cumberbatch getting snubbed by BAFTA considering the small jury they use for voting for the nominees. Last year we saw Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis and more frontrunners snubbed so I can wouldn’t be surprised if we get some more shocking misses this year.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204545872

    In hindsight, Denzel in Flight is a better performance, easily

    This, 100% I watched Lincoln and Flight and Flight was definitely a better movie, Lincoln was a borefest, Daniel Day Lewis was the only good thing about that movie, Denzel played so well the role of an alcoholic, my dad was an alcoholic and he was impressed with Denzel performance, the portrayal of an alcoholic is not easy, I love Daniel Day Lewis but I think he was the third best that year, behind Joaquin and Denzel.

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    TrumpBiden
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    #1204545887

    I can see Benedict Cumberbatch getting snubbed by BAFTA considering the small jury they use for voting for the nominees. Last year we saw Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis and more frontrunners snubbed so I can wouldn’t be surprised if we get some more shocking misses this year.

    And if that happens, K.O.

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    wolfali
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    #1204545979

    I can see Benedict Cumberbatch getting snubbed by BAFTA considering the small jury they use for voting for the nominees. Last year we saw Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis and more frontrunners snubbed so I can wouldn’t be surprised if we get some more shocking misses this year.

    They actually changed the rules this year. The two performances that receive the highest amount of membership votes in each category will automatically make it through to the nominations round whilst the remaining four slots are decided upon by the jury.

    So Benedict is probably getting in at BAFTA considering how respected he is in the British film industry and how big a player The Power of the Dog will be.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    veronikavoss
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    #1204547060

    I think it’s, also, hard to compare Smith to Boseman.

    Boseman’s film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. Smith’s film probably will be.

    Chadwick Boseman was dead and was universally-loved. Will Smith is alive and might not be so universally loved, if this Anti-Vaxx thing is true.

    I get the impression the performances are a different style, too. Both dominate their films, I get that impression – but Smith is a domineering father figure. Boseman was a vain and monstrously insecure young upstart.

    Cumberbatch and Hopkins are, also, playing extremely different characters… For one, I get the impression Cumberbatch is significantly more dislikeable than Hopkins. And, even though they are both British, Cumberbatch is playing a character with an American accent.

    All the same, I agree that Cumberbatch will get more votes than Will Smith at BAFTA – I just don’t see a stereotypical crowd-pleaser like King Richard being the BAFTAs thing nowadays. Funnily enough, I see Denzel Washington winning here, maybe. Shakespeare’s the kind of thing the BAFTAs go in for and it’s an artsy film that they now seem to like… Also, Denzel is 100% overdue at BAFTAs, so he has a good narrative for them to vote for him.

    umberbatch and Hopkins are, also, playing extremely different characters… For one, I get the impression Cumberbatch is significantly more dislikeable than Hopkins. And, even though they are both British, Cumberbatch is playing a character with an American accent.

    Thank you. The comparisons with Boseman are so reductive, not to mention racist (but white and people who want to be white here get mad when that’s pointed out).

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    diego
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    #1204547073

    Like I previously said, Hopkins and Cumberbatch are not comparable. Like, at all. The only thing they have in common is that both of them are British which would be the same thing as comparing two American actors.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204547122

    Smith and Boseman are not comparable either. Lets start with absolutely ridiculous attempt to rewrite history and build a narrative for Boseman that he had Smith-Washington-Freeman stature before his death. The trio is legendary for being who they are not for being that guy who played that superhero character.

    Smith movie is getting frontrunner buzz. Even if it doesn’t win, it’s getting nominated. So much stronger case than Boseman’s movie that missed. It’s an unwritten rule for at least last decade or so that Actor needs Picture to win. Hopkins had Picture so acto with Picture vs actor w/o Picture = Actor with Picture wins. Smith may go against another actor with Picture which wouldn’t be the repeat of Oscars 2021.

    Smith movie will be a hit. Ma Rainey was a flop for Netflix.

    Smith is a 2-time nomiee. if Bosmeman didn’t die a nom would be questionable cause he definitely didn’t have a winner buzz but only maybe nom before his departure.

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    Lexa
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    #1204547142

    Cumberbatch and Hopkins are, also, playing extremely different characters… For one, I get the impression Cumberbatch is significantly more dislikeable than Hopkins. And, even though they are both British, Cumberbatch is playing a character with an American accent.

    Honestly, any other character would be more dislikeable than Hopkins.  He’s playing an 80 year old with dementia.

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    Lexa
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    #1204547146

    I can see Benedict Cumberbatch getting snubbed by BAFTA considering the small jury they use for voting for the nominees. Last year we saw Carey Mulligan, Viola Davis and more frontrunners snubbed so I can wouldn’t be surprised if we get some more shocking misses this year.

    Lmao at some of you hoping for him to not get nominated.

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    crabbie
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    #1204547158

    The meltdowns if Cumerbatch wins…

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    lorelei lor
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    #1204547162

    Smith and Boseman are not comparable either. Lets start with absolutely ridiculous attempt to rewrite history and build a narrative for Boseman that he had Smith-Washington-Freeman stature before his death. The trio is legendary for being who they are not for being that guy who played that superhero character. Smith movie is getting frontrunner buzz. Even if it doesn’t win, it’s getting nominated. So much stronger case than Boseman’s movie that missed. It’s an unwritten rule for at least last decade or so that Actor needs Picture to win. Hopkins had Picture so acto with Picture vs actor w/o Picture = Actor with Picture wins. Smith may go against another actor with Picture which wouldn’t be the repeat of Oscars 2021. Smith movie will be a hit. Ma Rainey was a flop for Netflix. Smith is a 2-time nomiee. if Bosmeman didn’t die a nom would be questionable cause he definitely didn’t have a winner buzz but only maybe nom before his departure.

    Sorry I don’t consider Smith to have the same stature as Washington or Freeman.

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