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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 5)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204487022

    Anything can happen, Steven Yeun was nominated for an indie movie too.

    Minari has an 89 on Metacritic and got nominated for 6 Oscars including BP and BD…

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    Edgar Pereira
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    #1204487326

    I still believe Jamie Dornan might catch the Best Actor train for BELFAST if the movie happens to become an awards darling

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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    kbc
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    #1204487728

    Clifton Collins Jr? Are we predicting the Oscars or the indie spirits?

     

    The Oscars. If Ann Dowd can be heavily predicted for a nom for a film from a weak awards-season distributor with no other likely nominations, Collins can be predicted for a film that, besides coming from a strong awards-season distributor, actually did win a Sundance award (unlike the shut-out Mass). Happen to think Jockey has a good shot at a cinematography nom, too.

    On a related note, niiiice:

    The first six films selected for the 2021 Chicago Critics Film Festival are:

    BERNSTEIN’S WALL (documentary; written and directed by Douglas Tirola)
    A complex look at one of the greatest figures in 20th century classical music, Leonard Bernstein, whose passion and creativity guided him well beyond the concert hall.
    JOCKEY (co-written and directed by Clint Bentley)
    An aging jockey (Clifton Collins, Jr.) aims for a final championship, when a rookie rider arrives claiming to be his son.
    THE LOST DAUGHTER (written and directed by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
    A woman’s beach vacation takes a dark turn when she begins to confront the troubles of her past.
    THE NOVICE (written and directed by Lauren Hardaway)
    Isabelle Fuhrman (Orphan) plays Alex Dall, a queer college freshman who joins her university’s rowing team and undertakes an obsessive physical and psychological journey to make it to the top varsity boat, no matter the cost.
    THE POWER OF THE DOG *presented in 4k* (written and directed by Jane Campion)
    Charismatic rancher Phil Burbank (Benedict Cumberbatch) inspires fear and awe in those around him. When his brother brings home a new wife and her son, Phil sets out to torment them—until he finds his own dominance threatened.
    RED ROCKET (co-written and directed by Sean Baker)
    Mikey Saber (Simon Rex) is a washed-up porn star who returns to his small Texas hometown, not that anyone really wants him back.

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    kaziz
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    #1204487733

    I still believe Jamie Dornan might catch the Best Actor train for BELFAST if the movie happens to become an awards darling

    I agree. If the film is that strong, it stands to reason Dornan and/or Balfe should get in. If it is not that strong, they won’t and that’s a really bad sign because of the high correlation between Actor & BP. I guess we’ll find out on nomination morning because Belfast is unlikely to show up in this upcoming phase of critics groups. I’ve slotted him in because if he doesn’t get in here I don’t think Belfast is our frontrunner :/ Same with Balfe, really — you need at least one of them (or Jude Hill) to be locking themselves in for this particular film to be win-competitive (needless to say, this is not Parasite)

    I’ve finally put Will Smith up for the win but honestly with TPOTD being at every festival globally, festivals I’ve never even heard of, and Cumberbatch showing up literally everywhere, he may be strengthening himself without us even knowing it. Right now Denzel is the man of the hour. Who’s going to have the attention in a few weeks? Probably the person everyone has seen the most.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204487755

    Some of y’all lean so hard into name clout and disregard anyone else and it’s honestly so annoying.

    I agree. If the film is that strong, it stands to reason Dornan and/or Balfe should get in. If it is not that strong, they won’t and that’s a really bad sign because of the high correlation between Actor & BP. I guess we’ll find out on nomination morning because Belfast is unlikely to show up in this upcoming phase of critics groups. I’ve slotted him in because if he doesn’t get in here I don’t think Belfast is our frontrunner :/ Same with Balfe, really — you need at least one of them (or Jude Hill) to be locking themselves in for this particular film to be win-competitive (needless to say, this is not Parasite) I’ve finally put Will Smith up for the win but honestly with TPOTD being at every festival globally, festivals I’ve never even heard of, and Cumberbatch showing up literally everywhere, he may be strengthening himself without us even knowing it. Right now Denzel is the man of the hour. Who’s going to have the attention in a few weeks? Probably the person everyone has seen the most.

    I haven’t seen it and you have, but from everything I’ve seen isn’t Dornan indisputably supporting? I don’t understand why they would even try to campaign him here when supporting is wide open.

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    kaziz
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    #1204487760

    I haven’t seen it and you have, but from everything I’ve seen isn’t Dornan indisputably supporting? I don’t understand why they would even try to campaign him here when supporting is wide open.

    Well….yeah he is, not indisputably but yes he is. Still—it’s fairly common in films where a kid is the lead to use the two prominent adults (Dornan, Balfe) as leads. It’s mostly a problem of strategy honestly—if they put Dornan and Balfe in supporting along with Hinds and Dench, it really nixes the latter two’s chances honestly. I genuinely doubt both Balfe & Dench can get into supporting, the latter is far too small in impact, but Balfe is great. Dornan and Balfe have…….enough screen time to justify this, ya ofc it’s fraud but so was the Steven Yeun/Yeri Han situation of Minari, in a sense (less so than here, but still—Alan Kim was the lead of Minari for me). I think they have enough of a presence to go lead & that’s probably the better strategy if they want all 4 to get nominated (I think Balfe & Hinds are the best, but Dornan can get in, Dench is obviously the most famous so…)

    If Dornan and Balfe are put in supporting, they’ll both get nominations but they’ll basically have to sacrifice Hinds and Dench to do that, so……I’m coming from a place of “this is what I think they will do”.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204487768

    I haven’t seen it and you have, but from everything I’ve seen isn’t Dornan indisputably supporting? I don’t understand why they would even try to campaign him here when supporting is wide open.

    Yeah it is wide open but both Dornan and Hinds from Belfast getting into supporting? I highly doubt it. I don’t really like the film, but I do think the actors are charming and do far more than is asked of them, so I’m A-OK with Dornan and Balfe going lead tbh.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204487799

    There’s no reason for Balfe not to go Lead since she’s the most praised of the cast. Also, they are not going to sacrifice Dench lol don’t even think about it. You can take Balfe Lead (and nominated) and Dench supporting to the bank. I know that messes up with some wishful thinking nominations but that’s what it is.

    Actor/Supporting is more tricky for them re: Dornan who I feel is in a weaker position than Balfe. However, in Lead category, Focus has only him and Oscar Isaac whose movie bombed already, and needs unanimous critical backing to keep him in everyone’s memory. Dornan is in a much more visible and accessible movie so he could coattail his nom in a category that’s now shaping up to be an all-star (past winners and nominees w/o first-timers).

    That would leave Supporting to Hinds. The kid’s not happening. Jojo kid, who was actually great, didn’t happen either (though it would have been impossible to fraud that one in supporting but still).

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204487808

    I keep putting Jamie Dornan back in my predictions – I have a strong feeling he’s going to be nominated. But then I find plausible cases for other actors to be nominated too. There are 10 actors vying for those 5 slots, which means 5 of them aren’t going to make it. Which five is the tricky part but I suspect we are in for at least one huge surprise on February 8th.

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    JV
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    #1204487859

    I keep going back and forth with Balfe/Jamie Dornan, but the right thing to do is trying to campaign them both in Supporting and trying to run an Alam Kim type of campaign to get Jude Hill in Lead. Dench and Hinds have nothing roles and it would be dumb for Focus to focus on them instead of the most praised cast members. Balfe could even win in Supporting.

    “Academy doesn’t like boys”. There’s no proof for that. Jacob Tremblay missed because voters didn’t know in which category he was and the campaign didn’t make it easy. There was not even an attempt to campaign Roman Griffin Davis for what I remember. Alan Kim was probably 6th last year.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204487881

    Dornan is a question mark cause people are rightfully hesitant to cut a big name from the line-up to put him in Top 5.  Big names are going to get big campaigns. So that makes it harder for small names with big campaigns, not impossible as we know every year, but tricky for predictions. So to have Dornan in, one of Smith/Cumby/Leo/Denzel/Cooper needs to bow out. But who?

    Also, “nothing of a role” was never an obstacle to nominations especially coattail ones.

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    dee mura
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    #1204487883

     Cumberbatch showing up literally everywhere

     

    He only showed up yesterday at The Academy after his last appearance at TIFF though

     

     

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204487905

    Eh no shame in campaigning a lot. If they want it let them campaign. let them be everywhere. It isn’t like they ban everyone else to doing the same. Besides, OTT campaigning is fun. Redcarpet and Tom O’Neil. Classic. Melissa Leo and Consider This. Classic. Hilary Swank and her trailer trash confession. Classic. Jamie Foxx and his late grandma. Classic. If you want it, flaunt it. Non-campaigners are boring.

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    Stefania
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    #1204487911

    Well….yeah he is, not indisputably but yes he is. Still—it’s fairly common in films where a kid is the lead to use the two prominent adults (Dornan, Balfe) as leads. It’s mostly a problem of strategy honestly—if they put Dornan and Balfe in supporting along with Hinds and Dench, it really nixes the latter two’s chances honestly. I genuinely doubt both Balfe & Dench can get into supporting, the latter is far too small in impact, but Balfe is great. Dornan and Balfe have…….enough screen time to justify this, ya ofc it’s fraud but so was the Steven Yeun/Yeri Han situation of Minari, in a sense (less so than here, but still—Alan Kim was the lead of Minari for me). I think they have enough of a presence to go lead & that’s probably the better strategy if they want all 4 to get nominated (I think Balfe & Hinds are the best, but Dornan can get in, Dench is obviously the most famous so…) If Dornan and Balfe are put in supporting, they’ll both get nominations but they’ll basically have to sacrifice Hinds and Dench to do that, so……I’m coming from a place of “this is what I think they will do”.

    If you only think in terms of nominations, yes, but if you think in terms of wins then Balfe and Dornan should go supporting. They might sacrifice one or two nominations, but trade it for a potential winner! Unless you think than Balfe/Dench or Dornan/Hinds are canceling each other out.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204487936

    I keep going back and forth with Balfe/Jamie Dornan, but the right thing to do is trying to campaign them both in Supporting and trying to run an Alam Kim type of campaign to get Jude Hill in Lead. Dench and Hinds have nothing roles and it would be dumb for Focus to focus on them instead of the most praised cast members. Balfe could even win in Supporting.

    “Academy doesn’t like boys”. There’s no proof for that. Jacob Tremblay missed because voters didn’t know in which category he was and the campaign didn’t make it easy. There was not even an attempt to campaign Roman Griffin Davis for what I remember. Alan Kim was probably 6th last year.

    I am getting tired of this repeated mantra that Judi Dench and Ciaran Hinds have “nothing roles”. This is NOT true at all! They both have roles that could potentially get them an Oscar nomination and in Judi Dench’s case a second Oscar. They are true supporting roles in the best sense.

    Balfe and Dornan will most likely stay in the lead category and I think that is where they belong. I keep thinking of Sons and Lovers, where Trevor Howard got a Best Actor nomination – his role wasn’t huge and Dean Stockwell was the lead in the movie but he still got a Best Actor nomination. It will depend on how much the academy voters love Belfast.

    I believe there is an interesting split going on in the academy membership. Older members vs younger newer members. When a race is close these two factions battle it out and if one faction can coalesce around one nominee that nominee wins in a close race. Of course there is overlap, it’s not monolithic, but I do believe there is a case to be made for this happening ever since they brought in new younger more diverse members. There are still more older members than younger ones.

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