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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 9)

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    wolfali
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    #1204679664

    I think Rachel Weisz won at BAFTA for one reason and that was because the British bloc rallied more behind her. Not because she was British but because this was her awards comeback and she had a lot of goodwill that year because of Disobedience. Not to mention The Favourite was also a massive hit with BAFTA having netted a total of 7(!) wins. She probably would have won there regardless of whether King had been nominated and regardless of whether Stone or Adams ended up winning the Oscar.

    At the Oscars that was different because the rest of The Favourite’s voters didn’t go out of their way to award Weisz, vote-splitting with Stone was a bigger issue and King was able to sustain momentum due to the race being wide open (Adams was a weak contender for Vice, Blunt won at SAG in spite of not getting the Oscar nomination) and her being the initial frontrunner and having the most consensus.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Donda
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    #1204679667

    Cumberbatch’s pedigree being quite strong as ever being a previous Academy Award nominee in 2015 and being an Emmy winner. He’s also had plenty of commercial hits playing Doct Strange and with Spider-Man No Way Home especially this year. The British body will completely rally behind Cumberbatch (as they did with Colman) and he will collect a strong portion of American voters. I don’t know why people can’t accept Smith is vulnerable and not this undeniable lock.

    Smith has been in the industry for as long as I can even remember, he’s a two time best actor nominee, clearly not a random panned Hollywood star like McConaughey/Bullock was, and has like one of the biggest box office ever by any male star and not the superhero-like kind of box office. He’s huge and has made lot of Oscar voters rich over the years. All this coupled with a GG and SAG win should be enough, especially if his film does get nominated for BP, I don’t know why some of you can’t accept that.

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    Milk Money
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    #1204679674

    Newcomers in Best Actress and Supporting Actress are more likely to win than the male counterpart categories for reasons involving ingenue status and sexism. Plus Lupita’s biggest competition was J-Law who already won the previous year and was dis-campaigning for herself to boost Lupita.

    Yes, but I still say Chiwetel wasn’t too far behind for literally being the face of a film that won BP. We’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

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    Donda
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    #1204679682

    I think Rachel Weisz won at BAFTA for one reason and that was because the British bloc rallied more behind her. Not because she was British but because this was her awards comeback and she had a lot of goodwill that year because of Disobedience. Not to mention The Favourite was also a massive hit with BAFTA having netted a total of 7(!) wins. She probably would have won there regardless of whether King had been nominated and regardless of whether Stone or Adams ended up winning the Oscar. At the Oscars that was different because the rest of The Favourite’s voters didn’t go out of their way to award Weisz, vote-splitting with Stone was a bigger issue and King was able to sustain momentum due to the race being wide open (Adams was a weak contender for Vice, Blunt won at SAG in spite of not getting the Oscar nomination) and her being the initial frontrunner and having the most consensus.

    It does absolutely make no sense that bafta voters backed her up there but not at the Oscar. The truth is British bloc isn’t enough and that is why Lion bombed hard at the Oscars after it swept AACTA and did well at the Bafta.

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    wolfali
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    #1204679684

    the British bloc had that much power Moonlight would not have won either, it performed badly at BAFTA

    Yes getting four above the line BAFTA nominations for Best Film, S. Actor, S. Actress and Original Screenplay is the same as performing badly.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Donda
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    #1204679691

    Yes getting four above the line BAFTA nominations for Best Film, S. Actor, S. Actress and Original Screenplay is the same as performing badly.

    We are talking about wins, and Moonlight went home empty handed from Bafta.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204679699

    So, this brings me back to this question:

    What makes Will a “lock” to win?

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    Rachel615
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    #1204679705

    Yes, but I still say Chiwetel wasn’t too far behind for literally being the face of a film that won BP.

    I think that Twelve Years was one of those films, like PYW the past year, and perhaps TLD this year, where the Director, rather than the lead actor giving a great performance, became “the face of the film.”

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    Donda
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    #1204679715

    I think that Twelve Years was one of those films, like PYW the past year, and perhaps TLD this year, where the Director, rather than the lead actor giving a great performance, became “the face of the film.”

    And the Power of The Dog wouldn’t be that? lol you can’t make this up 😂

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    Rachel615
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    #1204679722

    So, this brings me back to this question:

    What makes Will a “lock” to win?

    Every time I read that ANYBODY is a “lock” to win, especially before all of the precursors have been handed out, I think of two words— Chadwick Boseman.

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    Baroque
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    #1204679749

    If Cage or Nishijima were the third actor in real contention, I’d 100% agree that this benefits Smith. The block of voters who are most TPOTD-friendly (likely to focus on critical acclaim versus broad appeal, etc.) would be neatly split.

    I am much less convinced that having a new face in the conversation coming from a distinctly American story in a crowd-pleaser film with scores in the mid-70s benefits Smith.

    FYC: 🐕 & 🐖

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    Rachel615
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    #1204679757

    And the Power of The Dog wouldn’t be that? lol you can’t make this up 😂

    I agree that Campion is the face of TPOTD and Cumberbatch is my current pick for best actor. My sole point was that I disagreed with the comment that Chiwetel Ejiofor “was the face of” Twelve Years, and for that reason was likely second in the voting that year.

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    Donda
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    #1204679770

    I agree that Campion is the face of TPOTD and Cumberbatch is my current pick for best actor. My sole point was that I disagreed with the comment that Chiwetel Ejiofor “was the face of” Twelve Years, and therefore was likely second in the voting that year.

    Well Chiwetel Ejiofor was the lead actor of the BP winner. If winning Bafta + being in the BP frontrunner was the requirement that leads to an upset, he should’ve easily won. That’s the point we’re trying to make.

    …and no he wasn’t some random unknown actor like it has been said above by that Crabbie user.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204679786

    Chiwetel Ejifor wasn’t “unknown,” but he was also not a household name.

    Comparatively, Benedict Cumberbatch is an Emmy winner. Not a household name, but a very well-known one in the States.

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    crabbie
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    #1204679795

    …and no he wasn’t some random unknown actor like it has been said above by that Crabbie user.

    Chiwetel Ejiofor is RELATIVELY (key word is relatively) unknown to McConaughey who had strong visibility that year thanks to The Wolf of Wall Street and True Detective that year. People seem to forget how strong the “McConaughey renaissance” narrative was that year. Cumberbatch does not have a similar pedigree to Ejiofor and is more known to the public and American bloc of voters. No Way Home will increase his visibility too. Cumberbatch is more like McConaughey and is likely to bring Smit-McPhee to a win too as McConaughey did for Leto, so I don’t really understand how bringing up McConaughey is suppose to strengthen Smith’s case.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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