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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor (Part 9)

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    Donda
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    #1204679802

    Chiwetel Ejifor wasn’t “unknown,” but he was also not a household name. Comparatively, Benedict Cumberbatch is an Emmy winner with a slew of other awards under his belt. Not a household name, but a very well-known one.

    Jesus! he was appointed  OBE by Elizabeth II in 2008, and had a prestigious résumé but sure in 2014 he was still a random unknown.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204679805

    Chiwetel Ejiofor is RELATIVELY (key word is relatively) unknown to McConaughey who had strong visibility that year thanks to The Wolf of Wall Street and True Detective that year. People seem to forget how strong the “McConaughey renaissance” narrative was that year. Cumberbatch does not have a similar pedigree to Ejiofor and is more known to the public and American bloc of voters. No Way Home will increase his visibility too. Cumberbatch is more like McConaughey and is likely to bring Smit-McPhee to a win too as McConaughey did for Leto, so I don’t really understand how bringing up McConaughey is suppose to strengthen Smith’s case.

    He seems to think that Smith will be the Bullock/McConaughey of the year.

    McConaughey also had a ton of mentions for Magic Mike, funnily enough.

    What else does Will Smith have going for him besides a “feel-good movie” that didn’t do well at the box office? Being the first black actor to win since 2007 would probably be a good narrative, but we know voters do not care.

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    Donda
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    #1204679807

    Chiwetel Ejiofor is RELATIVELY (key word is relatively) unknown to McConaughey who had strong visibility that year thanks to The Wolf of Wall Street and True Detective that year. People seem to forget how strong the “McConaughey renaissance” narrative was that year. Cumberbatch does not have a similar pedigree to Ejiofor and is more known to the public and American bloc of voters. No Way Home will increase his visibility too. Cumberbatch is more like McConaughey and is likely to bring Smit-McPhee to a win too as McConaughey did for Leto, so I don’t really understand how bringing up McConaughey is suppose to strengthen Smith’s case.

    True Detective premiered after McConaughey already won lol… and he was like in Wall Street for one second. Not with me I remember every bit of that race.
    McConaughey did not absolutely bring Leto to a win, he was even a bigger force with critics than Matthew. Get your facts straight, he had his own goodwill and faced absolutely zero competition.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204679809

    Jesus! he was appointed OBE by Elizabeth II in 2008, and had a prestigious résumé but sure in 2014 he was still a random unknown.

    I’m convinced you don’t read very well.

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    crabbie
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    #1204679812

    True Detective premiered after McConaughey already won lol… and he was like in Wall Street for one second. Not with me I remember every bit of that race.

    86th Academy Awards – March 2 2014

    True Detective premiere – January 12 2014

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Donda
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    #1204679820

    86th Academy Awards – March 2 2014 True Detective premiere – January 12 2014

    Point still stand? I’m not saying McConaughey was not strong, I’m saying Ejiofor would’ve beat him if Bafta win + being the lead of the best picture frontrunner was the requirement to an upset that’s the point I’m trying to make. I’m not by any mean downplaying Matthew whom I’m comparing to Smith either way. Huge American/international star SAG+GG+BP nominated film.

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    Milk Money
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    #1204679825

    I think that Twelve Years was one of those films, like PYW the past year, and perhaps TLD this year, where the Director, rather than the lead actor giving a great performance, became “the face of the film.”

    But if that were true in 12YO’s case, Steve McQueen would have won Director.

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    Donda
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    #1204679831

    Anyway y’all will switch when Smith takes the GG as you often do.

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1204679836

    I can’t believe I’m saying this because I am no Leo fan but I prefer him in Don’t Look Up to Smith and Cumberbatch.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204679851

    I mean, there are a bunch of folks saying that Will Smith will win the GG, but he could still lose the Oscar. Like…

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    Rachel615
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    #1204679853

    But if that were true in 12YO’s case, Steve McQueen would have won Director.

    Not necessarily. The year before, Ben Affleck was the face of Best Picture winner Argo, but he did not win the Oscar for Best Director.

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    Donda
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    #1204679859

    Not necessarily. The year before, Ben Affleck was the face of Best Picture winner, Argo, but he did not win the Oscar for Best Director.

    Because he was not nominated, he would’ve easily won.

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    estrelas
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    #1204679865

    Anyway y’all will switch when Smith takes the GG as you often do.

    No? I’m predicting Will to win the GG but Cumberbatch for the Oscar. One doesn’t have to correlate with the other.

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    kamila
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    #1204679872

    Cumberbatch isn’t a household name but he’s known enough for people to know his TPOTD performance is playing against type. That’s all he needs.

    Will isn’t a lock because even though KR had more buzz than TPOTD after the summer (to the point that some were saying it would be Smith vs. Garfield), more people started seeing KR and realized Will’s command of the movie was a little overstated. Will didn’t have to lead critic wins/noms to stay the frontrunner but he’s performed so, so poorly that I can’t see how anyone can say that’s good for his campaign. He’s even been losing the populist narrative to Andrew.

    He has enough cache to guarantee him the GG and make the SAG likely, but guaranteeing anything else at this point is pretending we’re still back in the summer when KR premiered.

     

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    Donda
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    #1204679874

    I mean, there are a bunch of folks saying that Will Smith will win the GG, but he could still lose the Oscar. Like…

    King Richard is going to be a BP nominee, meaning Smith, let’s suppose he wins GG and SAG, will have all the support both Close and Boseman lacked.

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