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Well, KR being nominated coupled with GG and SAG wins for Smith, that is my argument. If Smith doesn’t take both GG and SAG, what’s the point of predicting him? He could miss Bafta as long as he has those, I’ll keep him #1. Clooney and Keaton both had their films nominated for BP, but they lost SAG (US based) to non Americans.
So could Will, if we’re being honest.
Will Smith may be winning if this was the 2000’s, but nobody cares about Smith as they did in the 2000’s. Cumberbatch is in a Best Picture frontrunner and is one of the most respected British actors of his generation. He’s spayed with film, television, and theatre in the past decade. Why do you think critics have been rewarding him so much? Everyone has been waiting for Cumberbatch’s film award breakthrough. This is his time and if you think AMPAS won’t go for him now then you have a rough storm coming.
That happened like 5y ago when he smashed with The Imitation Game lol, but nice try
Smith… has like one of the biggest box office ever by any male star and not the superhero-like kind of box office. He’s huge and has made lot of Oscar voters rich over the years.
While it can help an actor’s Oscar chances if the film for which that actor is nominated does well at the box office, I’m not convinced that being “one of the biggest box office [attractions] ever” helps all that much in an Oscar campaign. If being a big box office star was dispositive, Tom Cruise, Harrison Ford, Robert Downey, Jr., Scarlett Johansson and Samuel L. Jackson would all have Oscars.
So could Will, if we’re being honest.
Probably yes, the others had no reason to lose at SAG but then again I don’t see Smith losing to Cumberbatch, not for that kind of performance anyway.
While it can help an actor’s Oscar chances if the film for which that actor is nominated does well at the box office, I’m not convinced that being “one of the biggest box office [attractions] ever” helps all that much in an Oscar campaign. If being a big box office star was dispositive, Tom Cruise, Harrison Ford, Robert Downey, Jr., Scarlett Johansson and Samuel L. Jackson would all have Oscars.
Um, whatever reality fits you.
Critics awards aren’t a be all and end all but let’s not like they’re nothing either. After all Chadwick Boseman had a bigger impact with critics than Viola Davis and was stronger in the best actor race than Davis was in the best actress one, Promising Young Woman ended up being the closest thing to a consensus runner up to Nomadland amongst critics and got nominated for best picture at every televised ceremony and Yuh-jung Youn dominated with critics groups and then the industry awards even though she was up against Amanda Seyfried and Olivia Colman. And that was all when everything was still being done on zoom.
Sure there are times when an actor is a lone passion pick for a film (Hawke in First Reformed, Collette in Hereditary) but no one in this race aside from maybe Nicholas Cage is remotely comparable to either of them.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
It also doesn’t make sense to think a film with low audience ratings like PoTD is going to win 3 above the line Oscars. It is factually not very much liked not even on Letterboxd lol, but I guess it doesn’t matter because that’s what everyone on this board is stanning, so they don’t want to see that part.
Carrie?! You mean Carey. And btw, Frances also did extremely well. Both of them were literally flip flopping with critics. You need a better argument.
The point is plenty of critic darlings lose and some are even snubbed completely (i.e. Ethan Hawke) so calm down.
The point is plenty of critic darlings lose and some are even snubbed completely (i.e. Ethan Hawke) so calm down.
Ethan Hawke was in an A24 movie that came out in like May and had a terrible campaign. You used Carey has an example of a critics darling that lost the Oscar, but she literally lost to the other critics darling in the BP winner.
Why can’t Cumberbatch win for that type of performance? Is it because he played a villain? Ironically, Will lost twice to actors playing villains.
I thought Cumberbatch was very good, but Will Smith’s performance seems more Oscar winning to me. I simply think its his time.
I am working on being patient with this category – waiting to see who wins GG, CC, SAG-Afrtra, and BAFTA. It’s way too soon to call it but I do believe it is Cumberbatch vs Smith and I doubt that will change – I would love for Leo to sneak in and win it but it’s hard to see the guy battling for the fifth slot winding up as the winner… I won’t be locking in my winner until after BAFTA.
The acting like critics are irrelevant when 3/4 of last years winners were critic picks is sending (We all know why it’s not 4/4 before some of y’all try it). And with recent winners: Oldman did better overall than Chalamet, Hawke swept against Malek sure but he was a non-starter with a very small film and even Phoenix won some of them against Driver and/or Banderas when critics weren’t that high on Joker. C’mon people.
I just love when people use winners like Phoenix, Oldman or even Malek. We’re very much in a different situation here, as a sweep is likely not happening. How is someone who swept relevant to determine the winner in a split race lmao
The last four Oscar winners didn’t win the three most important critic awards, i think critics are irrelevant. Yeah sometimes they can have a similar taste with the industry but at the end it’s the Academy that have the last word.
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