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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor

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    kaziz
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    #1204361816

    It definitely looks like the Cumberbatch vs Washington showdown this award season. Leaning towards Washington winning since Lord Macbeth is a role juicy as it gets. Showy and powerful. Bradley Cooper may be a dark hose but his role in Nightmare Alley doesn’t seem to be the ticket for his Oscar.

    Juicy, yes, and an actor’s showcase but it’s also very stale material that has been done a bazillion times before, and most adaptations had “a new take”. Denzel is king, I wanted him to get his 3rd like 4 years ago, but I can’t say with confidence that his role will be as emotionally resonant as he was (for me) in Fences (yes, I know people thought he was overwrought, I thought he was awesome).

    Yeah maybe Denzel’s narrative wins out but I think Cumberbatch will have greater passion for his role, which is challenging in a way he hasn’t done before. We’ve never seen him even close to this setting or character before, so it’ll be a whole new thing after people seeing him as British biopic-guy/Dr. Strange.

    Lol because I don’t think both Cumberbatch and Dunst will win, I want him to lose and her to win, but just looking at from the book, unfortunately I think it’s his to lose.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    #1204361828

    Juicy, yes, and an actor’s showcase but it’s also very stale material that has been done a bazillion times before, and most adaptations had “a new take”

    Yeah this is his biggest hurdle; definitely the over-saturation of Macbeth adaptations. Which makes me even more curious to see Coel’s Macbeth adaptation so badly. I currently have The Power of the Dog and Tragedy of Macbeth in my top 2 Best Picture winner predictions and I am inclined to think at least one actor/actress from either film will win.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204361834

    Yeah this is his biggest hurdle; definitely the over-saturation of Macbeth adaptations. Which makes me even more curious to see Coel’s Macbeth adaptation so badly. I currently have The Power of the Dog and Tragedy of Macbeth in my top 2 Best Picture winner predictions and I am inclined to think at least one actor/actress from either film will win.

    Reasonable. I don’t see McDormand winning though, so following your inclination, it’ll more likely be Denzel & Dunst lol. I don’t know. Actor is probably Washington v. Cumberbatch. I think McDormand’s getting nominated but I’m inclined to think it’s Dunst v. [somebody else who has loads of passion]

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    fefface
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    #1204361842

    Yeah this is his biggest hurdle; definitely the over-saturation of Macbeth adaptations. Which makes me even more curious to see Coel’s Macbeth adaptation so badly. I currently have The Power of the Dog and Tragedy of Macbeth in my top 2 Best Picture winner predictions and I am inclined to think at least one actor/actress from either film will win.

    Agree re: Washington which is why I’m predicting him for the nom but not the win. I don’t think the narrative to give him a third is that strong and it’s been decades since someone won for Shakespeare.

    This is also a problem for Driver/Annette – not just is the film weird, but also it’s been literally 60 years since a male actor won for a musical – and even longer for an original one.

    Cumberbatch looks best on paper at the moment but he needs the film to land as I can’t see him being a sole nominee for it.

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    crabbie
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    #1204361854

    This is also a problem for Driver/Annette – not just is the film weird, but also it’s been literally 60 years since a male actor won for a musical – and even longer for an original one.

    Yeah not only that but winners in this category have been plagued with physical transformations and traditional biopic fare. Sure there have been exceptions like Hopkins (The Father) and Casey Affleck but their roles on paper were traditional and reflected the common man. Driver in Annette is simply “too weird”. Driver honestly has a better chance playing Maurizio Gucci in House of Gucci.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204361860

    Driver in Annette is simply “too weird”. Driver honestly has a better chance playing Maurizio Gucci in House of Gucci.

    I dunno about that. The reviews for Driver in Annette have all mostly been “best of his career”, how can HoG top that?

    I get that it’s a weird film & it’s been ages since an actor won for a musical, but Driver’s famous, buzzy, and acclaimed enough to get in for Annette without the film getting anything else. Unless HoG is a player across the board (which I’m not predicting), I don’t see why Driver can’t get in for Annette. Anyway. He’ll get in for one or the other I guess

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    fefface
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    #1204361870

    I dunno about that. The reviews for Driver in Annette have all mostly been “best of his career”, how can HoG top that? I get that it’s a weird film & it’s been ages since an actor won for a musical, but Driver’s famous, buzzy, and acclaimed enough to get in for Annette without the film getting anything else. Unless HoG is a player across the board (which I’m not predicting), I don’t see why Driver can’t get in for Annette. Anyway. He’ll get in for one or the other I guess

    He is, for sure, but the film has to be seen by voters to get nominated and it simply won’t appeal to a lot of them (I don’t think so anyway but I’d be happy to be wrong). Because it’s not only a bit odd but it’s pretty long, so you have to commit to watching.

    I agree with all the people who are saying its his best work but yeah. One thing that could be an interesting wrinkle re: the length of time since someone won for a musical is that this is the first year in a while that we could have multiple musical contenders (though Annette is not in any sense a traditional musical).

    Yeah not only that but winners in this category have been plagued with physical transformations and traditional biopic fare. Sure there have been exceptions like Hopkins (The Father) and Casey Affleck but their roles on paper were traditional and reflected the common man. Driver in Annette is simply “too weird”. Driver honestly has a better chance playing Maurizio Gucci in House of Gucci.

    Having seen it I wouldn’t say that it is a transformative role. But I also wouldn’t say that it isn’t…

    I’m kinda of surprised by the early reactions from US critics I’m seeing online but I hold to what I’ve been saying since I saw the film – that it’s an all-timer of a performance but it is not a crowd-pleaser and he’ll miss (for this film anyway).

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    LA26
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    #1204361880

    Driver in Annette is simply “too weird”. Driver honestly has a better chance playing Maurizio Gucci in House of Gucci.

    What if Driver doesn’t get nominated for any of his films at all this season and only Gaga, makeup, costume, and production design get nominations? I’m personally holding off on a BP nomination for House of Gucci until reactions are out.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204361962

    It definitely looks like the Cumberbatch vs Washington showdown this award season. Leaning towards Washington winning since Lord Macbeth is a role juicy as it gets. Showy and powerful. Bradley Cooper may be a dark hose but his role in Nightmare Alley doesn’t seem to be the ticket for his Oscar.

    I think those are the three that have win potential out of the front-runners so far… But I think Andrew Garfield and Will Smith also might have outside chances at winning, if their films do well. Even then, though, at the present moment, I think Cumberbatch has a good a chance of getting in as Garfield or Smith, given Campion’s track record…

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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    mateil
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    #1204362009

    What if Driver doesn’t get nominated for any of his films at all this season and only Gaga, makeup, costume, and production design get nominations? I’m personally holding off on a BP nomination for House of Gucci until reactions are out.

    Unpopular opinions maybe but:
    1. I think Driver’s best shot out his three roles is actually getting in Supporting for The Last Duel(even though I don’t think the film is not going to get in for Picture.)
    2. I think there is a chance, albeit not a big one, that even if HoG is a Picture contender, Gaga still misses.

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    mateil
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    #1204362015

    It definitely looks like the Cumberbatch vs Washington showdown this award season. Leaning towards Washington winning since Lord Macbeth is a role juicy as it gets. Showy and powerful. Bradley Cooper may be a dark hose but his role in Nightmare Alley doesn’t seem to be the ticket for his Oscar.

    So far, I find it hard to see who can win beat Washington. He’s exactly the type of actor who’s overdue for a third win, not to mention overdue for a BAFTA nomination and win. He’s playing also playing one of the greatest roles an actor could play. He smells like Hopkins to me.

    Also since we no longer have GG, the only precursors left are CC, SAG and BAFTA. Maybe he misses CC, but I don’t see how he misses SAG and BAFTA with jury chosen nominees.

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    Gwen
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    #1204362021

    I’d love if Cumberbatch wins, he’s been giving strong and great performances like in Patrick Melrose, The Imitation Game, Hamlet, The Courier Third Star… and I think it would be a big boost to his career – I’m also tired to see him in Marvel things, he has a talent not to be wasted.

    2022 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: JODIE COMER
    Best Actor: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH
    Best Supporting Actress: ANN DOWD, TONI COLLETTE
    Best Supporting Actor: WILLEM DAFOE, RICHARD JENKINS

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    fefface
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    #1204362120

    So far, I find it hard to see who can win beat Washington. He’s exactly the type of actor who’s overdue for a third win, not to mention overdue for a BAFTA nomination and win. He’s playing also playing one of the greatest roles an actor could play. He smells like Hopkins to me. Also since we no longer have GG, the only precursors left are CC, SAG and BAFTA. Maybe he misses CC, but I don’t see how he misses SAG and BAFTA with jury chosen nominees.

    See (and this is probably a personal thing) I don’t consider anyone to ever really be overdue for a third Oscar. Plus Denzel hasn’t had too many Oscar-worthy performances since Training Day. But he did manage to get nominated for Roman J Israel so he’s clearly getting in regardless.

    Cumberbatch has been coasting these last few years so it’s great he’s challenging himself again. Interested to see how it goes.

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    Stank83
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    #1204362153

    I don’t buy Bradley Cooper getting a nomination for Nightmare Alley (i can see though Blanchett getting in regardless of the movie’s chances in Picture and Directing).

    It seems more like a straight man type of role, and especially this year  it seems that the competition in Actor will be incredibly packed with more interesting roles /performances.

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    mateil
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    #1204362198

     Plus Denzel hasn’t had too many Oscar-worthy performances since Training Day.

     

    Fences, Flight, American Gangster.

    But also you can really say the same thing about Zellweger.

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