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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204371612

    In what way is The Shape of Water relevant? And no it isn’t an Oscar bait movie, it won a bunch of stuff but it’s definitely not traditional bait. Cooper embarrassed himself with ASIB and made his thirst obvious. Driver making a weird small film with Leos Carax is not ‘thirst’ lol, even if he gets in for it. Your argument of ‘this non-Oscar bait movie that ended up winning means that other non-Oscar bait movies are in fact bait’ makes no sense.

    What i was trying to said is that the Academy is unpredictable, Parasite was a small indie movie and ended up winning 4 Oscars, With the right campaign like it could end up being a big player at the Oscars

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    schmids
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    #1204371626

    What i was trying to said is that the Academy is unpredictable, Parasite was a small indie movie and ended up winning 4 Oscars, With the right campaign like it could end up being a big player at the Oscars

    Yes, but a film getting in unpredictably is not the same as it being bait. Shape of Water wasn’t bait. Annette isn’t bait.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204371862

    I often clash with Driver stans but calling Annette a bait is beyond ridiculous. Carax doesn’t make movies for Oscars and actors who make movies with him don’t expect oscars and/or boxoffice. Same goes for Jarmush and some other directors. Like, does anyone think Johansson worked with Glazer because she wanted the Oscar? LOL.

    Also, TLD is a Medieval movie and this genre is very low on awards. Last medieval movie as in historical epic set in those times that won the Oscar was Braveheart. it got ZERO acting nominations. After that, Medieval themed but otherwise fantasy genre LOTR got noms and finally a win. That was it. Scott’s Kingdom of Heaven and Robin Hood got zip and weren’t even well reviewed. So tough to call TLD a bait when awards didn’t have interest in medieval times for over 20 years.

    HoG comes the closest to a bait since AMPAS loves quirky takes on historical events lately (WOWS, I Tonya). But it isn’t a bait in a way that something like The Power of the Dog is. HoG is still more of a commercial play essentially.

    But anyway, whether Driver gets nominated for something or not, doesn’t change the fact that he’s having a great year with a weirdo indie, a weirdo commercial, a feminist epic and a camp classic. All that adding to his due narrative.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204372317

    At the moment I only feel any degree of confidence in Benedict Cumberbatch (assuming <i>The Power of the Dog</i> doesn’t flop). I can see any of the other four I am predicting to get in end up missing or flopping.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "FLEE" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design

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    crabbie
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    #1204372341

    After taking out Adam Driver out of my nominations I’ve been looking for a 0 time nominated newcomer to replace him and have predicted Michael B. Jordan to get in for Journal of Jordan. I think the December release really helps him in time for Oscar voting and could be one of Sony Pictures biggest push in award season. That being said we know nothing about this movie so far so it’s pretty much a no guts no glory prediction. But surely a newcomer will have to be nominated next year?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204372382

    After taking out Adam Driver out of my nominations I’ve been looking for a 0 time nominated newcomer to replace him

    May I suggest Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter?

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    crabbie
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    #1204372607

    May I suggest Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter?

    I desperate want a Oscar Isaac first nomination but I don’t know if a Schrader vehicle will be able to push him especially since Schrader is aiming to tank his film’s chances every time he speaks.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204372618

    After taking out Adam Driver out of my nominations I’ve been looking for a 0 time nominated newcomer to replace him and have predicted Michael B. Jordan to get in for Journal of Jordan. I think the December release really helps him in time for Oscar voting and could be one of Sony Pictures biggest push in award season. That being said we know nothing about this movie so far so it’s pretty much a no guts no glory prediction. But surely a newcomer will have to be nominated next year?

    A Journal for Jordan sounds AWFUL.

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    crabbie
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    #1204372620

    A Journal for Jordan sounds AWFUL.

    I agree. But which newcomer will break through?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    fefface
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    #1204372622

    I agree. But which newcomer will break through?

    I’m not taking Driver out yet. Not enough to go on from the trailer.

    Also he should be winning for Annette but won’t so I’m keeping him in for this one until I see more of it.

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204372639

    Potential newcomer nominees…

    Michael B. Jordan
    Peter Dinklage
    Clifton Collins Jr.
    Oscar Isaac
    Caleb Landry Jones
    Simon Rex
    Jamie Dornan
    Cooper Hoffman

    I do think that we’ll likely have one newcomer in this category, but it’s really hard to see who can make it in from that lineup. I think Michael B. Jordan has the best chance among them because it feels like his time, but I have such doubts.

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    crabbie
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    #1204372641

    I think Michael B. Jordan has the best chance among them because it feels like his time, but I have such doubts.

    Precisely the only reason I have Jordan in my predictions but I have such high doubts the film will not land with AMPAS. Next in line I would predict Dinklage but Joe Wright has been such a flop director with that atrocious Woman in the Window release. Cooper Hoffman could get in if Soggy Bottom does well with the Academy too.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204372657

    Potential newcomer nominees… Michael B. Jordan Peter Dinklage Clifton Collins Jr. Oscar Isaac Caleb Landry Jones Simon Rex Jamie Dornan Cooper Hoffman I do think that we’ll likely have one newcomer in this category, but it’s really hard to see who can make it in from that lineup. I think Michael B. Jordan has the best chance among them because it feels like his time, but I have such doubts.

    Isaac is supposedly the standout from Dune, I could see him having a chance of getting in for that if the movie is a hit, Ian McKellen style.

    Edit: for supporting though.

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    Vicki Leekx
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    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204372691

    I’m sad The Duke has been pushed back to next year (despite excellent reviews), the pandemic has really affected this movie I guess…Jim Broadbent could have really had an awards comeback of sorts with this role!

    FYC:

    Virginie Efira, Charlotte Rampling, Lambert Wilson Benedetta (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Noomi Rapace Lamb (Actress)
    Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall Spencer (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Penelope Cruz, Israel Elejalde, Milena Smit, Julieta Serrano, Rossy de Palma Madres Paralelas (Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress)
    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren The Duke (Actor/Supporting Actress)

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204372717

    1- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
    2- Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of MacBeth
    3- Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
    4- Andrew Garfield – Tick Tick Boom
    5- Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon

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