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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actor

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    Chocoesq
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    #1204331775

    I have said before that I think Annette is Adam’s best shot to oscars. Gucci has major flop risk and his character in TLD is too horrific to see it take him to a win (unless they reward Jodie as well). He’s surely the front runner for Cannes best actor (and given divisive nature of Carax the win there seems more likely than for the film or directing). And that could be the Antonio Banderas Pain and Glory path to a best actor Oscar nom. Potentially also the GG musical/comedy win.

    If Annette is Driver’s best shot, then he is not getting nominated. It will be forgotten after this week.

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    fefface
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    #1204331778

    If Annette is Driver’s best shot, then he is not getting nominated. It will be forgotten after this week.

    I doubt that given that it doesn’t come out Stateside until next month.

    And yeah Jonathan Glazer, with Darius Khondji as DP.

    That is insane.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204331781

    Annette reaction is pretty much what I expected. Based on the very divisive response, it seems very unlikely to be in for any mainstream awards. That Vox Lux tweet was telling.

    Again, I don’t see Driver pushing this for the nomination despite the praise. Not with it likely not being a contender for any other awards. I think an acting nom almost has to be supported by at least another above the line nomination or two, and that’s not happening. Unless both TLD and Gucci flop — which is a very real risk to be fair — he’ll drop this to campaign that performance.

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    wolfali
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    #1204331783

    I think an acting nom almost has to be supported by at least another above the line nomination.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    fefface
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    #1204331788

     I think an acting nom almost has to be supported by at least another above the line nomination or two, and that’s not happening.  

    There are multiple recent examples of this not being the case. There were two sole nominees in Actress this year alone.

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    Chocoesq
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    #1204331791

    There are multiple recent examples of this not being the case. There were two sole nominees in Actress this year alone.

    You’re right. Driver would have a better chance getting a nom for Annette in a year no movies were released to theaters.

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    Watcher
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    #1204331793

    I mean I think it’s fair to hedge any campaigning until reviews for Gucci and TLD are out, but I think it will be the Annette performance that sticks for critics based on the US reviews I’ve seen

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204331797

    There are multiple recent examples of this not being the case. There were two sole nominees in Actress this year alone.

    Fair enough. But what I’m saying is that if one of the other two has traction and the films are possible multiple-nominees, that’s the bet Driver goes with. Every recent example I can think of who made it in without their film getting other recognition didn’t have another film to campaign, and didn’t have to make that choice. It’s like dropping The Report for BlackKKKlansman. I think he goes where there’s momentum. It depends on how TLD and Gucci do.

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    sarahvsmovies
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    #1204331801

    I mean I think it’s fair to hedge any campaigning until reviews for Gucci and TLD are out, but I think it will be the Annette performance that sticks for critics based on the US reviews I’ve seen

    But it’s also July and this is the sort of return-to-cinema/first award contender release. There’s a lot of time and a lot of movies to come out. It will be a completely different landscape in October.

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    fefface
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    #1204331810

    You’re right. Driver would have a better chance getting a nom for Annette in a year no movies were released to theaters.

    That was just one example. There are plenty of other examples of actors and actresses being sole nominees. The year before there were also two – Tom Hanks and Renee Zellweger.

    Of course I’m not saying he’s getting in. Just saying that the comment that acting noms have to be supported by other noms isn’t always the case.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204331979

    That was just one example. There are plenty of other examples of actors and actresses being sole nominees. The year before there were also two – Tom Hanks and Renee Zellweger. Of course I’m not saying he’s getting in. Just saying that the comment that acting noms have to be supported by other noms isn’t always the case.

    Maybe but if you want to win the Oscar, specially in The Best Actor category your movie needs to be nominated, look what happened this year with Boseman, many were convinced he was going to win, his movie wasn’t nominated and some people started to seen red flags, and they were right.

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    LA26
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    #1204331981

    Anne Thompson’s review of Annette on Twitter: Leos Carax’s daring full-throated musical Annette (Amazon) drove away some opening night Cannesgoers. The actors are fearless in this heightened Lars von Trier operatic melodrama, especially Adam Driver, launching himself off a high dive. It’s not accessible enough for Oscars.

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    Sir Pierce
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    #1204331996

    Driver’s not winning Best Actor for this film. I can say that for a fact. And I doubt he’s winning for House Of Gucci.

    If he wins Best Actor prize at Cannes AND if House Of Gucci is underwhelming, then he could potentially get a nomination the same way as Banderas in 2019, Defoe in 2018, Washington in 2017 and Mortensen in 2016.

    That’s far from certain, though. And the film’s early release isn’t helpful to it’s cause. I think he could get nominated here, but there’s pretty much no chance of him getting a win for Annette. And I don’t feel as if his character in House Of Gucci is going to be the one which wins Best Actor. Like Bale and DiCaprio, there’s a solid chance of him getting nominated in this category, but little to no chance of him winning.

    A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204332052

    I wonder if we’re gonna have a 2006 Leo DiCaprio with Driver, with him getting in Lead for the less-acclaimed movie in which he has a baitier role (Blood Diamond/Annette) and being frauded into supporting for the actual BP contender (The Departed/House of Gucci or The Last Duel)

    Impossachievable

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    schmids
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    #1204332105

    I wonder if we’re gonna have a 2006 Leo DiCaprio with Driver, with him getting in Lead for the less-acclaimed movie in which he has a baitier role (Blood Diamond/Annette) and being frauded into supporting for the actual BP contender (The Departed/House of Gucci or The Last Duel)

    He is Supporting in TLD. There is no way they can fraud him into Supporting for Gucci. Even if they campaigned him there I think voters would correct it.

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