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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 13)

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    kallewickans
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204455819

    slam-dunk and I’m not seeing it. On the day that Belfast (ugh) is getting such great responses, I feel like Balfe is pulling one over her even on the day of the premiere? That can’t be good right? FYC:

    CuriousHedgehog wrote:
    God, why is this category impossible every single year. However, remember. We have: Chastain, Hudson, Stewart, and Kidman doing biopic performances and 100% not all 4 are getting in. Who misses?

    Tbh Stewart is the only one of those four I have getting in.

    me too only stewart will get in

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204455821

    Ive heard it is. In fact, Rooney Mara originally had a bigger role in the original/source material. Blanchett’s role got revamped

    It’s in the film’s logline that the film is about the relationship between Cooper and Blanchett’s characters.

    Plus del Toro has said the book is too big to adapt so he’s adapting a smaller part of it. I presume that’s why Blanchett would be lead: depending on where the adaptation starts and ends the book, she can easily be the predominant character. So yeah, lead I’m pretty sure.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204455841

    Okay how are the reviews now again??

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    crabbie
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    #1204455843

    I don’t think Gaga and Chastain can both make it in since both of their films are campy biopics. It’s an arbitrary reason but the acting branch typically has variety in their categories. I’m predicting Chastain to overcome Gaga only because Chastain’s raves are intense. Gaga would have to match her spirit of raves, but also Chastain’s role is baitier with the prosthetics.

    These are the biopic actresses I have in: Chastain and Stewart. I think Kidman will fall. The Hudson ship has long sailed.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kaziz
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    #1204455866

    Purely, entirely curious: Can someone give me one solid reason to think Chastain will be able to get in even though her film is out in 4 days? If the highly-received Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter is getting lost because it’s out in theaters right now, why would Chastain in Tammy Faye fare any better?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204455885

    BUT on the other hand: – Chastain is highly visible in other ways (HBO show). – Could it possibly be a People’s Choice runner-up? – Ofc…..we don’t know yet what the MC will look like. If it cracks 70……why not, throw her into the mix

    If this movie is a runner-up for the Audience Award at TIFF, then we are fucked this year lmao. What are audiences thinking of Tammy Faye?

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204455890

    Purely, entirely curious: Can someone give me one solid reason to think Chastain will be able to get in even though her film is out in 4 days? If the highly-received Oscar Isaac in The Card Counter is getting lost because it’s out in theaters right now, why would Chastain in Tammy Faye fare any better?

    Because it’s the most TRANSFORMATIVE performance of the year.

    Best actress is also much less tied to BP than best actor.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204455893

    I would easily have called Chastain a safe bet even though her film has very mixed reviews last year. Same with the year before. But this year is just SO competitive. Sure she has rave reviews but unless the film places for the people’s choice at TIFF it’s not going to be a contender. And in a year as competitive as this one that can hurt her:

    – Catriona Balfe: Raved performance in a likely top tier Picture contender.

    – Penelope Cruz: Volpi cup winner in a film that could win international feature.

    – Olivia Colman: Career best raves in a Venice winning film that’s being distributed by Netflix.

    – Kristen Stewart: Raved performance playing Princess Diana.

    – Tessa Thompson: Industry rising star with an acclaimed performance in an acclaimed Sundance directorial debut and Netflix film.

    And those are only the four performances we know about/have been seen. We also have:

    – Cate Blanchett: Beloved 2x winner in a potential Picture contender from an Oscar winning director.

    – Nicole Kidman: Playing Lucille Ball (a much more beloved icon) in an Aaron Sorkin film.

    Now of course Charlize Theron, Cynthia Erivo and Renee Zellweger all got in for weak films (albeit in a weaker year) but The Eyes of Tammy Faye isn’t Judy. Renee Zellweger had a career renaissance narrative and hardly anyone was going to pass down the opportunity to see a film where she’s playing a beloved icon like Garland. It had a premise with wide appeal which helped it in visibility. <i>The Eyes of Tammy Faye</i> is a very American film, appeals to a very certain demographic and is being released in September.

    These reviews cement her as a contender but with this competitive looking a field a nomination isn’t a certainty.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204455895

    I don’t think Gaga and Chastain can both make it in since both of their films are campy biopics. It’s an arbitrary reason but the acting branch typically has variety in their categories. I’m predicting Chastain to overcome Gaga only because Chastain’s raves are intense. Gaga would have to match her spirit of raves, but also Chastain’s role is baitier with the prosthetics. These are the biopic actresses I have in: Chastain and Stewart. I think Kidman will fall. The Hudson ship has long sailed.

    Gaga needs that crowdpleasing power and even more powerful raves to get in. and since we already had two biopic performances in… I dont know.

    .Searchlight has its magic when it comes to getting their performers in (Colman n McCarthy, McDormand and Hawkins) and under current circumtances I think its possible for them to at least replicate Focus’ actor run in 2018 (Im aware of DDL narrative tho) when they got DDL and Oldman in despite Phantom Thread skipped festival. Im not sure if MGM has the same appeal as Searchlight or Focus

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204455908

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye debuts at 61 MC with 9 reviews

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204455915

    Okay how are the reviews now again??

    61 on Metacritic (5 green, 3 yellow, 1 red).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204455922

    I do wonder if Gaga could overcome Chastain if House of Gucci receives a similar reception as I Tonya (fun camp that is mixed but most people enjoy it) and Gucci makes a lot of money. I don’t know..I’m predicting Gucci to be one giant mess and I don’t want to change my mind on that. Blehhh this category’s lineup is so difficult to predict and it’s twisting my mind.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Jan 1st, 1970
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    #1204455924
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204455931

    I do wonder if Gaga could overcome Chastain if House of Gucci receives a similar reception as I Tonya (fun camp that is mixed but most people enjoy it) and Gucci makes a lot of money. I don’t know..I’m predicting Gucci to be one giant mess and I don’t want to change my mind on that. Blehhh this category’s lineup is so difficult to predict and it’s twisting my mind.

    .

    I Tonya has festivals run, something that Gucci is lacking. Also its a Physical role for Margot Robbie, cant say the same thing about Gaga.

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204455936

    I do wonder if Gaga could overcome Chastain if House of Gucci receives a similar reception as I Tonya (fun camp that is mixed but most people enjoy it) and Gucci makes a lot of money. I don’t know..I’m predicting Gucci to be one giant mess and I don’t want to change my mind on that. Blehhh this category’s lineup is so difficult to predict and it’s twisting my mind.

    How was I, Tonya mixed when it had a 77 on Metacritic?

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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