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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 13)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204455938

    Kristen Stewart
    Olivia Colman
    Penelope Cruz
    Jessica Chastain
    Caitriona Balfe

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    kaziz
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    #1204455946

    Because it’s the most TRANSFORMATIVE performance of the year.

    Best actress is also much less tied to BP than best actor.

    Sure—it’s increasingly more tied to BP than historically where we would have almost full lineups without BP films.

    More importantly: it feels like the other cases I can think of, either the film needs to do a bit better than that (Viola Davis, Ma Rainey), or becomes an obvious frontrunner because of a weak year (Renee Zellweger, Judy, or even not a weak year like Charlize Theron in Monster), and/or breaks out late & surprises (Andra Day, Billie Holliday).

    I’m just thinking out loud! Not passing judgment. Maybe? Trying to see the path

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    crabbie
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    #1204455948

    Worth mentioning I think the TIFF tribute goes a long way for Chastain’s chances. We’ve seen the tribute do wonders for nominations for Phoenix and Hopkins in the past 2 years.

    Sure the TIFF tribute for actress has gone wrong for Winslet and Streep but nobody really considers The Laundromat or snoozing Ammonite to be the best career performances from those actresses. While for Chastain, the reviews are pointing to an enthusiastic unanimous praise for her performance even by the film’s naysayers. Eventually the TIFF tribute actress should get in actress. Chastain is likely to break the curse. I would say Chastain’s TIFF tribute overcomes Balfe’s buzz at TIFF and Chastain gets in over Balfe if a nomination spot is between the two of them. Of course both can get in.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    #1204455950
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    crabbie
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    #1204455958

    How was I, Tonya mixed when it had a 77 on Metacritic?

    For some reason I thought the film had a 73 reception but House of Gucci would kill for a 77 reception right about now.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204455961

    How was I, Tonya mixed when it had a 77 on Metacritic?

    She/he’s talking about the Subject matter I suppose. I, Tonya divide public opinion because of the way it “Victimize” Tonya Harding when it shouldn’t be.

     

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    wolfali
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    #1204455967

    Something that’s worth mentioning is how this is another extended season. The eligibility hasn’t been extended but ultimately December releases like <i>Being the Ricardos </i>and Nightmare Alley are going to be given more breathing room than they have in normal years and that can aid their leads if they deliver.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kaziz
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    #1204455974

    Hmm okay so since this is clearly going to go off the rails any minute now, I guess I’ll just say that it seems like the film’s release date is Chastain’s worst enemy.

    But yeah maybe. Dunno.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    #1204455989
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204455991

    Nah stop your bullshit. You’ve been hating on this film and Chastain for a minute, don’t try to spin some bullshit narrative now. You don’t want to see it, you’ve made it known, why even post about it?

    She just root for Blanchett. Its simple

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    George Ehret
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    #1204455999

    This movie has a 3.4 on Letterboxd right now do we expect it to go up, down, or stay the same

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204456007

    Sure—it’s increasingly more tied to BP than historically where we would have almost full lineups without BP films.

    Well you asked what separates Chastain and Isaac and I answered. Neither of them will be in a BP movie but that will hurt Isaac more than Chastain because history says so…

    But let us try this another way… when was the last time a female performance as raved and as transformative as Chastain’s missed a nomination? I am sure it happened but I am just trying to get a sense of how rare it is.

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    #1204456018
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    Tick Tock
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    #1204456041

    I think the concerns about Chastain are valid… early release date, mixed reviews, strong year… but being the most transformative performance of the year goes a long long way. I think she could miss but I am definitely predicting her for now…

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1204456056

    Sure the TIFF tribute for actress has gone wrong for Winslet and Streep but nobody really considers The Laundromat or snoozing Ammonite to be the best career performances from those actresses. While for Chastain, the reviews are pointing to an enthusiastic unanimous praise for her performance even by the film’s naysayers. Eventually the TIFF tribute actress should get in actress. Chastain is likely to break the curse. I would say Chastain’s TIFF tribute overcomes Balfe’s buzz at TIFF and Chastain gets in over Balfe if a nomination spot is between the two of them. Of course both can get in.

    But she quite literally got career best reviews that ended up being replaced by MoE?

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