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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 13)

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    gofyb
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    Sep 12th, 2021
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    #1204457281

    Oh poor Kristen…if film twitter is rooting for you, you are 100% doomed. She’ll be the Carey Dulligan of this season indeed. It’s not like she had a chance to win in the first place (as we saw by the venice ignoring her and the movie), but still…

    and who has a chance then? Gaga?

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    James Gibson
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    Jul 8th, 2012
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    #1204457283

    I don’t get why we had previous convos about Gaga needed to have at least +70 score and the box office in order to make it, which is true, but Chanstain with a 60 movie is being locked, sure in a weak year she could have made it with this performance, but with three contenders having already +80 movies and much stronger raves, I don’t see Chanstain making it this year.

    The movie is very likely to bomb at the box office as well.

    Turns out projecting your personal feelings when predicting a contender doesn’t make their chances vary at all. People here discredit Gaga cause they don’t her to happen, but there’s nothing to back she’s behind most of the other names.

    FYC: Memoria and House of Gucci for Best Picture

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    Entela
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    #1204457285

    I don’t get why we had previous convos about Gaga needed to have at least +70 score and the box office in order to make it, which is true, but Chanstain with a 60 movie is being locked

    It’s really great the standards Gaga is held by her obsessed haters. The whole forum has deemed the movie as a panned flop already and her acting mediocre, even though the same pundits/critics they use for their faves have Gaga at #2 in their prediction atm…

    I say keep hating on Gaga cause as we saw so far, everything the clueless “movie experts” in here predict, ends up being wrong.

    Hudson was lock…reality, OUT!

    Kristen was lock for Volpi…reality, OUT!

     

     

     

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    Mar 16th, 2021
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    #1204457291

    Turns out projecting your personal feelings when predicting a contender doesn’t make their chances vary at all. People here discredit Gaga cause they don’t her to happen, but there’s nothing to back she’s behind most of the other names.

    tbh if i discredited her i did it because i truly don’t think she has a chance if her film tanks which seems like it will.

    i mean tld is lowkey a flop and it had a way better and promising trailer than hog

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    Entela
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    #1204457339

    Chastain is not gonna happen.

    She looks like a caricature in that role…on top of that, her being a lower B-list doesn’t help her either to get in, since she lacks name importance for the members to namecheck her during voting process.

    Also there’s zero necessity to reward her ala Glenn Close with a bad movie (HillBilly) since hasn’t done anything deserving of an Oscar in a long time.

     

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    sadins
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    Aug 6th, 2021
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    #1204457343

    So here are four ladies, who are likely getting in:

     

    Stewart (The buzz is undeniable)

    Cruz (Volpi and comeback narrative)

    Colman (Support from British voters, and overall very respected)

    Thompson (Your WOC nominee, to stop #OscarsSoWhite trending)

     

     

    Actress in mixed received movie released in Sept is not going to take the last spot. Its just not realistic

     

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    veronikavoss
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    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204457406

    The movie is very likely to bomb at the box office as well.

    Are there many contenders expected to light up the box office this year, though? I feel like this is just not going to be that relevant of a factor for most contenders given everyone’s expectations are understandably much lower than in a normal year, they can still get watched by voters who’ll make up their own minds.

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    kallewickans
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204457415

    Source? 🙂

    Awards watch

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    wattsgold
    Joined:
    Oct 6th, 2018
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    #1204457429

    Another day, another chance to say this: “Gaga is not winning Best Actress.” She will struggle to even get a nomination with more reputable (and yes, well-liked) actresses in contention. Stans hopedicting saying it’s hate has got to be the most ironic rhetoric in this site.
    And no fucks given, basic trolls are already on ignore.

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204457439

    I suppose that if audiences respond positively to Tammy Faye and Chastain’s able to maintain her buzz she can benefit from a Renee Zellweger or Meryl Streep situation. She has strong reviews and pundits hyping her up because of her transformation, and Searchlight will probably campaign her, though not at the expense of Blanchett. And Chastain herself will campaign. But we have to consider the possible BAFTA snub, if the Globes happen this year and if they give her a boost, if SAG is willing to vote for her, etc. And if Kristen really is the Carey Mulligan of this year, then Chastain could just as easily be Viola Davis…

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204457441

    Are there many contenders expected to light up the box office this year, though? I feel like this is just not going to be that relevant of a factor for most contenders given everyone’s expectations are understandably much lower than in a normal year, they can still get watched by voters who’ll make up their own minds.

    I agree with that actually.

    But I guess to answer your question: I think people hope that the following contenders’ films are at least sufficiently seen, with others being clearly big commercial plays: Gaga, Blanchett, Kidman, Lawrence, Zegler. To be fair, most festival films will also be seen in December but since they played festivals they ideally should lock in earlier because that’s the whole point lol

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
    Joined:
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    #1204457454

    Thompson (Your WOC nominee, to stop #OscarsSoWhite trending)

    Not gonna deny that having a WOC contender is a big factor & yes it is a major reason I think Thompson is a big contender — but she also has amazing reviews in a highly-praised movie with at least one other nod (Ruth Negga). So…maybe you could put a comma and add that accomplishment when listing as well 🙂 (this is not sarcasm, just earnestness).

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    wattsgold
    Joined:
    Oct 6th, 2018
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    #1204457457

    This year we can also have 2 WOC as nominees, that’s also incredibly exciting given that I’m dying to see Thompson and Queen Halle.

    …they’re still losing to Camila, but everyone already knows that.

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    veronikavoss
    Joined:
    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204457462

    I agree with that actually.

    But I guess to answer your question: I think people hope that the following contenders’ films are at least sufficiently seen, with others being clearly big commercial plays: Gaga, Blanchett, Kidman, Lawrence, Zegler. To be fair, most festival films will also be seen in December but since they played festivals they ideally should lock in earlier because that’s the whole point lol

    I personally don’t think Tammy Faye will have much trouble being seen.

    The few times I’ve been in a theater with other people seeing this trailer play, it seems to go over pretty well, and I think people who’ve never heard of Tammy Faye here are way overstating how “unknown” she is IMO. And tbh it might be a blind spot for their predictions if they don’t know how people who lived through the scandal and remember her being an icon culturally, amongst gays, etc. throughout the decades would react to the movie.

    It also looks like a light, breezy watch that wouldn’t be too emotionally taxing for most voters to catch up with at least eventually.

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