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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 14)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204457311

    Part 14 is now open.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204457341

    Gaga

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    wolfali
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    #1204457364

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    veronikavoss
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    #1204457443

    Starting off the season strong: Stewart, Cruz, Colman

    Fighting for similar slots: Chastain, Hudson, Kidman

    Have a hunch about: Tessa Thompson

    If they decide to put McDormand here I think there’s a safe spot for her, where I think the likes of Balfe or Blanchett are best going Supporting (the latter especially reminds me of her lead campaign for Benjamin Button to make room for Supporting actresses like Henson/Swinton). Lawrence’s role also seems like less of a player than her past noms given the trailer, but she technically can’t be counted out.

    I guess I’m open to Gaga/Gucci’s reception surprising me and being a player here, but we’ll cross that bridge if we get there.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204457459

    I’m gonna repost what I wrote in the last thread since it’s about to close

    I suppose that if audiences respond positively to Tammy Faye and Chastain’s able to maintain her buzz she can benefit from a Renee Zellweger or Meryl Streep situation. She has strong reviews and pundits hyping her up because of her transformation, and Searchlight will probably campaign her, though not at the expense of Blanchett. And Chastain herself will campaign. But we have to consider the possible BAFTA snub, if the Globes happen this year and if they give her a boost, if SAG is willing to vote for her, etc. And if Kristen really is the Carey Mulligan of this year, then Chastain could just as easily be Viola Davis…

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    #1204457483

    part 14 wow

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    wolfali
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    #1204457496

    Kristen Stewart and Carey Mulligan aren’t comparable. One of them was in a socially topical crowdpleasing auteur driven indie revenge thriller the other is playing Princess Diana in a high brow period drama. Voters chose to award Promising Young Woman with the auteur behind it, Emerald Fennell. If voters choose to award Spencer it’s not going to be for Pablo Larrain or Steven Knight when Stewart is soaking in all the buzz for the film.

    To cut a long story short if Stewart loses it won’t be for the same reasons Mulligan lost.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    kaziz
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    #1204457501

    Mid-September predix:
    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer*
    2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter**
    3. Tessa Thompson, Passing***
    4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    5. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast☆☆

    6. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
    7. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    9. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    10. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

    * I don’t think Kristen is as strong a frontrunner as it seemed just a week ago, but she’s still a frontrunner. I am unsure of Spencer‘s chances in BP now, especially after it went unrewarded at Venice but it can still happen in BP.
    ** The Lost Daughter is arguably closest to BP. I think with 10 slots…it should be a lock right now. The Hand of God was also well-received but The Lost Daughter got a warmer reception at Telluride and still won a prize at Venice, so that’s pretty telling. THOG could still get in ofc.
    *** Poised to make a renewed splash at NYFF, London, Chicago, Mill Valley Film Festivals. Passing is playing EVERYWHERE after TIFF lol. With a re-edited version, it will get a whole new spate of reviews, which are already very very high. Potential BP player.
    ☆ Cruz seems oddly vulnerable to me but she’s probably in. She did win Volpi & she’s a powerhouse at the Oscars, but she’s missed before & she was the frontrunner for Volpi at the start because that was the only European award she hadn’t won before.
    ☆☆ BP nominee, but (ugh) Belfast doesn’t seem super strong to me with acting players, save for Hinds. Vulnerable but could be less vulnerable than Cruz if the film keeps getting stronger.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204457527

    I’m so sorry, but Jessica Chastain is absolutely getting nominated and could even win.

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    wattsgold
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    #1204457529

    Kristen Stewart and Carey Mulligan aren’t comparable. One of them was in a socially topical crowdpleasing auteur driven indie revenge thriller the other is playing Princess Diana in a high brow period drama. Voters chose to award Promising Young Woman with the auteur behind it, Emerald Fennell. If voters choose to award Spencer it’s not going to be for Pablo Larrain or Steven Knight when Stewart is soaking in all the buzz for the film. To cut a long story short if Stewart loses it won’t be for the same reasons Mulligan lost.

    They already started with the illogical analogies? Then, they’ll say it’s the “curse of the young blonde characters”

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    George Ehret
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    #1204457541

    The Carey Mulligan comparisons make me think Stewart is gonna give my favorite performance of the year lol

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    #1204457543

    I’m so sorry, but Jessica Chastain is absolutely getting nominated and could even win.

    in a weaker year yes. in a year like this not so possible but we will see

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204457545

    Kristen Stewart and Carey Mulligan aren’t comparable. One of them was in a socially topical crowdpleasing auteur driven indie revenge thriller the other is playing Princess Diana in a high brow period drama. Voters chose to award Promising Young Woman with the auteur behind it, Emerald Fennell. If voters choose to award Spencer it’s not going to be for Pablo Larrain or Steven Knight when Stewart is soaking in all the buzz for the film. To cut a long story short if Stewart loses it won’t be for the same reasons Mulligan lost.

    Promising Young Woman wasn’t a crowd pleaser. It flopped hard with audiences. I don’t care if there was covid-19 or not. Lol

    Lady Gaga's BIGGEST FAN

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    Opium
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    #1204457550

    Current state of race (imo):

    1. Stewart (still frontrunner, strong raves, beloved icon portrait, +80 MC movie);

    2.Penelope (Volpi cup winner, best career raves, +80 MC movie);

    3.Colman (+80 movie MC, raved performance);

    4.Cate Blanchett (veteran legendary actress with an intriguing role in a Guillermo del Toro movie, bomb combination, hardly a miss);

    5. Gaga|Kidman|Thompson (playing real existing character);

     

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