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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 14)

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    kaziz
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    #1204462629

    https://twitter.com/filmcriss/status/1438336315737710599?s=21

    Now it’s Jessica turn

    I appreciate the commitment, I really do. Good for her. It’s a bit too much for me but obviously I have confirmation bias: I just don’t feel like I’d like the film or performance, so my opinion basically means nothing. Weirdly, I don’t actually love the KStew clip either: again, I appreciate the commitment, just like Chastain she’s clearly transforming, but I need to see the full package (and I think I’ll love Spencer, so it’s strange I didn’t love this lol)

    What I will say is: as transformative as the role is, we’re still extrapolating from an Academy that we don’t really know anymore. It is changing and every year feels more surprising (sometimes in a terrible way, like Green Book lol). I don’t know to what degree the standard assumptions of “they always love this” apply because that sure didn’t help Viola or Andra—and yeah I know I know, it’s a bad comparison, but everything will be a bad comparison. Zellweger in Judy feels like a giant Green Book-sized outlier now tbh. Most “transformative” over-the-top performances that got nominated did lose. Theron (Bombshell), Robbie, Portman, Streep (Florence, August: Osage County) and others. Of course, since 2010 at least two (3?) very “transformational” performances won (I’m counting Streep, Zellweger but does Portman for Black Swan count? Dunno.)

    I think more often the list of winners reflects something else: there’s a fine line between transformational and playing-against-type. I feel like I see more of the latter than the former in the last decade. Mostly, they’re performances that careen back and forth from extreme emotions in the space of one film, whereas before that—hoooo boy, being unrecognizable was THE STANDARD. Now? I……don’t think so. If that were the case, Kidman may well have won an Oscar every darn year lol, she does “transformational” a LOT. Adams did it in Vice, Bening in The Kids Are All Right (maybe that’s against-type though) Also I actually think Emma Stone was very good at doing the part in Battle of the Sexes, I appreciated her commitment even though I didn’t value it as some awesome performance like she gave in The Favourite the next year. I appreciated her trying because I could tell she was trying to expand her range as much as possible. Like Stewart was obviously doing with Seberg.

    TL;DR: I don’t know anything, and based on all of you guys’ certainty I’m guessing Chastain is in and can indeed pull off a Malek/Zellweger. But I have a strong suspicion that if she wins, there’s much more to it than “transformational”. That feels…simplistic. In the same way that it can be simplistic to say Roma lost because it’s a foreign film. Maybe partially yeah lol, but it also probably lost because……..many found it boring? But things changed enough that they rewarded Nomadland two years later?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
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    #1204462631

    Chastain is going to “Rami Malek” the competition….Stewart who??

    Tammy Faye ain’t getting nommed for Picture tho

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    kaziz
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    #1204462636

    I sure did not see this coming, that a hype train for a 180-transformational camp performance that starts looking almost inevitable would be given by Jessica Chastain, not Lady Gaga LOL.

    If Chastain rides this “transformational” wave, Gaga’s going to be scrutinized against Stewart & Chastain quite a bit, which can’t be good can it?

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Drive My Car
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley, Martha Plimpton
    Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    nkb325
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    #1204462662

    Just here to say that Tammy Faye Bakker is NOWHERE NEAR the level of icon that Winston Churchill, Judy Garland, Margaret Thatcher, hell even Edith Piaf are. I had never even heard of her before the movie was announced.

    Honestly the whole “transforming into an iconic figure” applies much more to Stewart and that’s what’s so interesting. If the person playing Princess Diana was in a more accessible movie, she would already have the award on lock. Meanwhile if the movie about Tammy Faye Bakker was more artsy and experimentable, whoever was playing her probably wouldn’t even have a shot for a nomination. Realistically the platonic ideal of this would be someone like Jennifer Hudson in Respect, a movie who’s reviews really aren’t any worse than Judy’s, but for many reasons (not all of which, but definitely some of which involve race) she seems more like a lucky to be nominated at this point than a frontrunner.

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    kenny818051
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    #1204462683

    I have a serious question. Who here is actually familiar with Tammy Faye? As a 35 year old gay man, I am VERY familiar with her. Growing up in Texas she was a household name. Jessica nails this from what I have seen. Everyone keeps describing her performance as clownish and camp. THAT WAS TAMMY FAYE! I am not a Jessica Chastain fan, I have seen like 2 or 3 of her films, the clips that I have seen are an embodiment of Tammy Faye. I haven’t seen enough of Stewart as Diana to say if she was better or not. I just feel like in general Pablo Larrian films are loved by critics, but don’t connect as much with folks outside of that. My other concern is that Diana is so beloved and so engrained in most of our minds that the slightest misstep will put people off.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204462720

    My gut feeling is that neither Chastain or Stewart will win Best Actress. We have yet to see the likes of Kidman whom very well can ride the transformation narrative to greater heights than those two as Being the Ricardos could very likely be a strong player. Cate Blanchett too shouldn’t be disregarded as she is playing a showy, villainous role that could just blow people away. Also Colman can’t be eliminated as well as she has the career best raves too, which should tell us alot about the quality of her performance. At this point I’m leaning towards Kidman as it checks the most boxes.

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    Chitanda170
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    #1204462722

    Tammy Faye ain’t getting nommed for Picture tho

    They nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, anything can happen

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    crabbie
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    #1204462726

    They nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, anything can happen

    Bohemian Rhapsody grossed $216.4 million in the United States and Canada, and $687.3 million in other territories, for a total worldwide gross of $903.7 million, against a production budget of about $52 million.[7]

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Manav
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    #1204462728

    We have yet to see the likes of Kidman whom very well can ride the transformation narrative to greater heights than those two as Being the Ricardos could very likely be a strong player.

    Having watched The Eyes Of Tammy Faye, I can’t imagine in the slightest that any perfomance can be as transformative as Chastain’s. She does things with this character which are like-Wow! I find it implausible that she won’t win (without any exaggeration, I’m telling this. It’s a very warm Performance). You’ll understand what I’m talking about when you see the movie. 🙂

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    FilmRoyalty
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    #1204462730

    Come on Halle!!!

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    Crackleking
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    #1204462732

    Having watched The Eyes Of Tammy Faye, I can’t imagine in the slightest that any perfomance can be as transformative as Chastain’s. She does things with this character which are like-Wow! I find it implausible that she won’t win (without any exaggeration, I’m telling this. It’s a very warm Performance). You’ll understand what I’m talking about when you see the movie. 🙂

    I’ve seen the movie which is mediocre by the way and Chastain gives a great performance, but my biggest problem with her winning is that she isn’t playing a well known or beloved figure, actually she is a slimy con artist. I see voters being impressed with her performance from a technical standpoint but not exactly moved by it in a way that would make her undeniable for a win. Kidman can steal her thunder as she plays a massively beloved figure that is dear to voter’s hearts and as such could give her a leg up when having to choose between the two performances. There is just no way that you can think that Chastain is the only plausible winner when her competition is right there.

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    Manav
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    #1204462745

    There is just no way that you can think that Chastain is the only plausible winner when her competition is right there.

    I prefer to believe Stewart, Colman and Cruz as her current competitors and won’t be too optimistic of any perfomance (Kidman or Blanchett or Gaga) that hasn’t premiered.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204462760

    Worth nothing that every single person in the world know who Freddie Mercury is hence it made huge amount of money, while Tammy Faye is arguably only familiar in USA.

    On another note, will British bloc of the Academy rally behind KStew/against KStew??

    FYC:
    Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
    Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
    Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
    Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

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    Crackleking
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    #1204462762

    Worth nothing that every single person in the world know who Freddie Mercury is hence it made huge amount of money, while Tammy Faye is arguably only familiar in USA.

    On another note, will British bloc of the Academy rally behind KStew/against KStew??

    I’m not entirely convinced the British bloc will rally behind Stewart as she paints an unorthodox version of Diana which may allienate and offend them. I can see someone like Colman thus taking BAFTA and having that British bloc support.

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