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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 14)

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204463148

    You know what actually is a huge percentage – 75%.

    It’s a huge percentage but they are not unanimous. 75% doesn’t vote for the same thing. neither do 25% but they are still more monolith when they rally up behind something than 75%. especially Brit Block out of that 25%.

    This isn’t 75% vs 25%, it’s 25% adding to part of 75% that voted for X. Part of 75% voted for Hopkins + 25% that voted for him = Hopkins wins. Not saying all of 25% voted for Hopkins but he still got more votes from 25% than Boseman got from 75%.

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    #1204463158

    this isn’t the same academy it was a decade ago when Jennifer Lawrence was able to overcome Emmanuelle Riva

    this still hurts…

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204463170

    Jennifer Lawrence was able to overcome Emmanuelle Riva and Sandra Bullock was able to overcome Carey Mulligan

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204463177

    Jennifer Lawrence winning over Emmanuelle Riva,Jessica Chastain and the non-nominated Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) etc is one of Academy’s biggest shams.

    I can’t comprehend that Jennifer Lawrence has the same number of Oscars as Joan Crawford, Sissy Spacek, Audrey Hepburn, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, Viola Davis and many more and the fact she has more Oscars than Glenn Close, Amy Adams, Annette Bening and Judy Davis.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204463179

    Let me just say in this conversation about international voters that when Green Book won Best Picture, there was apparently a buttload of international voters backing it in direct competition with a non-English language film made by people of color and a British period drama with 12 BAFTA nominations. Sometimes foreign voters don’t care enough about the international contenders and are moved by American stories even if they are largely unknown to them.

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    Posts:
    #1204463184

    Jennifer Lawrence winning over Emmanuelle Riva,Jessica Chastain and the non-nominated Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) etc is one of Academy’s biggest shams. I can’t comprehend that Jennifer Lawrence has the same number of Oscars as Joan Crawford, Sissy Spacek, Audrey Hepburn, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, Viola Davis and many more.

    Sandra winning over Carey and Gabourey is also a complete fucking joke

    FYC
    Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
    Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
    The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
    Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
    The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

    Profile picture
    Manav
    Joined:
    Dec 21st, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204463186

    Sandra winning over Carey and Gabourey is also a complete fucking joke

    Oh yes, absolutely! The Academy went straight from Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard and Kate Winslet to Sandra Bullock. What a drop!!

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    Crackleking
    Joined:
    Jan 12th, 2017
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    #1204463196

    Let me just say in this conversation about international voters that when Green Book won Best Picture, there was apparently a buttload of international voters backing it in direct competition with a non-English language film made by people of color and a British period drama with 12 BAFTA nominations. Sometimes foreign voters don’t care enough about the international contenders and are moved by American stories even if they are largely unknown to them.

    Yes, which is why the British always vote British assumption is wrong. We made this assumption too much last year with Carey Mulligan when we thought the British/International bloc would back her up and give her the Oscar win when in fact they backed Frances. This should be a forewarning for Stewart next year. Just because she’s playing Lady Di doesn’t mean British voters will automatically vote for her. They may very well think Colman gave a better performance and vote for her instead for example.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204463205

    Green Book made 236.6M overseas so it resonated internationally. It was a surprise hit in China where it made 71M which is unheard of for a Hollywood movie w/o explosions. It had terrific legs – from 17M opening weekend to 71M total, that’s 4.17 multiplier.

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    kallewickans
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    #1204463212

    aWe shall

    Oh yes, absolutely! The Academy went straight from Helen Mirren, Marion Cotillard and Kate Winslet to Sandra Bullock. What a drop!!

     

    At least we agree on Sandra Bullock being the worst Oscar winner ever  but i How about Gwyneth Paltrow though winning over Queen Cate Blanchtte? We don’t know what kind of performance the academy will reward next year is it the subtle performance or the showy performance ? is it the ingenue or the veteran? Hoping Kristen wins though.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204463223

    Yes, which is why the British always vote British assumption is wrong. We made this assumption too much last year with Carey Mulligan when we thought the British/International bloc would back her up and give her the Oscar win when in fact they backed Frances. This should be a forewarning for Stewart next year. Just because she’s playing Lady Di doesn’t mean British voters will automatically vote for her. They may very well think Colman gave a better performance and vote for her instead for example.

    Same with American voting American. Sure 75% of voters are American but that doesn’t mean they’ll all vote for one contender as implied earlier in the thread.

    With 5 nominees it’s almost impossible to receive that high a vote tally no matter what type of performance, narrative, bloc support etc. Zellweger probably had one of the largest win majorities in recent times and it’s unlikely she even received 75% of the vote considering actors also took to Little Women, <i>Bombshell </i>and Marriage Story.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    veronikavoss
    Joined:
    Jul 28th, 2011
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    #1204463225

    Same with American voting American. Sure 75% of voters are American but that doesn’t mean they’ll all vote for one contender as implied earlier in the thread.

    With 5 nominees it’s almost impossible to receive that high a vote tally no matter what type of performance, narrative, bloc support etc. Zellweger probably had one of the largest win majorities in recent times and it’s unlikely she even received 75% of the vote considering actors also took to Little Women, <i>Bombshell </i>and Marriage Story.

    I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise!

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204463233

    Sandra winning over Carey and Gabourey is also a complete fucking joke

    Not at all. Sandra was a superstar who had her “she can carry a drama?” moment with an insane boxoffice hit that wasn’t in her comfort zone (romcom, comedy). I cannot stress enough how big 256M domestic gross was in 2009, before 3D, for a movie without special effects and/or action. Stars lined up. And she is a winning personality so you bet campaigning was an easy part.

    Sidibe was a total newcomer and overshadowed by Mo’nique. She was great but everyone knew that Mo’nique was going to win for THAT performance. Nomination was Sidibe’s award as is the case when supporting actor gets more attention than the lead one.

    Mulligan was another newcomer in a small movie.

    You may like those performances more, but they were not going to beat a boxoffice and charisma juggernaut and there’s also nothing wrong with Bullock’s performance. You just hate the white savior character but that doesn’t mean that performance was crap which it wasn’t. Veyr few actresses could be that charismatic. Mulligan certianly not. She’s highly revered by moviebuffs and awards watchers but general public doesn’t know who she is cause she’s bland on and off the screen. Good actress but unmemorable presence.

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    Ash
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    Jan 31st, 2017
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    #1204463246

    I love Ms Olivia Colman but i don’t think she’s getting nominated either which is ok she’s has a lead actress oscar at her house right now she’ll be ok if this is true.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204463254

    I don’t think anyone is arguing otherwise!

    Glad we’re on the same page then haha! These forums are very prone for miscommunication.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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