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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 19)

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204509074

    BAFTA Jury better NOT rob Kristen of her nomination with their BS.

    I have no confidence that SAG-AFTRA clowns will vote for a sophisticated performance after last year’s cringefest but BAFTA could assuming she made the cut.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204509123

    I think Chastain is this season’s Allison Janney.

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204509132

    How so? Janney movie was nominated for Picture and she was in easier to win category (Supporting).

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    crabbie
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    #1204509136

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>

    I think Chastain is this season’s Allison Janney.

    I Tonya wasn’t panned and was an audience hit placing second at TIFF People Choice. Janney was more overdue than Chastain as well. There is no path for Chastain to win and it’s fruitless to entertain this idea. It’s better to look at Nicole Kidman as a possible alternative to Stewart.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    crabbie
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    #1204509144

    How so? Janney movie was nominated for Picture and she was in easier to win category (Supporting).

    Correction: I Tonya was 10th in picture but made it in PGA.

    Additonally, I Tonya received international support from BAFTA with an original screenplay, costume, and make-up nominations. So Janney received a huge chunk of international support. BAFTA isn’t touching The Eyes of Tammy Faye at all.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    Bassett
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    #1204509156

    Janney was already an Emmy/SAG legend and industry giant before she won her Oscar and it doesn’t look like Jess is anywhere near that status yet. Not comparable

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis

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    LA26
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    #1204509177

    This isn’t meant as shade or hate towards Chastain,  but I don’t think the industry believes she’s overdue the way many believe Margot Robbie or Amy Adams are overdue.

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    VedanthM
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    #1204509224

    This isn’t meant as shade or hate towards Chastain, but I don’t think the industry believes she’s overdue the way many believe Margot Robbie or Amy Adams are overdue.

    Robbie? Don’t think so.

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    BigJay2012
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    #1204509230

    This isn’t meant as shade or hate towards Chastain, but I don’t think the industry believes she’s overdue the way many believe Margot Robbie or Amy Adams are overdue.

    How is Margo Robbie overdue in any way?

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    rollins
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    #1204509248

    This isn’t meant as shade or hate towards Chastain, but I don’t think the industry believes she’s overdue the way many believe Margot Robbie or Amy Adams are overdue.

    Robbie is nowhere near overdue and Amy Adams can’t even win an Emmy.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204509266

    Janney was already an Emmy/SAG legend and industry giant before she won her Oscar and it doesn’t look like Jess is anywhere near that status yet. Not comparable

    Chastain is a two-time previous Oscar nominee. Which actually helps more than recognition elsewhere outside the medium. Janney was a participate in many Oscar recognized movies. I know supporting actress is looser than best but I see her path to victory will look a lot like Janney’s when everyone thought Metcalf had it in the bag for an eventually upset.

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    LA26
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    #1204509274

    Robbie? Don’t think so.

    You don’t have to like her but she’s a beloved and respected figure in the industry. She’s worked with Scorsese, Tarantino and is currently filming a movie being directed by Damien Chazelle and will also be in Wes Anderson’s new movie. Her character Harley Quinn is a pop culture icon and her iteration of the character has been a popular Halloween costume since 2016. Robbie also seems popular at BAFTA (she got nominated for MQOS and got double nominations for Bombshell and OUATIH) and SAG (got nominated for MQOS). She’s also a successful producer in her own right and produced films that won Oscars (I, Tonya and Promising Young Woman). Robbie also produced the Netflix show Maid, starring Margaret Qualley, her OUATIH co-star.

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    crabbie
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    #1204509279

    Chastain is a two-time previous Oscar nominee. Which actually helps more than recognition elsewhere outside the medium.

    Regina King first time Oscar nominee defeated six-time nominated Amy Adams. Regina King had 2 Emmys at the time and it’s already difficult to win 1 Emmy as it is. Winning 2 Emmys cemented her as an acting veteran who needed the right film to be an Oscar vehicle for her to win. The fact that she won 2 additional Emmys after her Oscar is legendary.

     

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    M: The Original
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    #1204509292

    Regina King first time Oscar nominee defeated six-time nominated Amy Adams. Regina King had 2 Emmys at the time and it’s already difficult to win 2 Emmys as it is so yeah it cemented her as an acting veteran who needed the right film to be an Oscar vehicle for her to win. 2 Emmys > 2 Oscar nominations.

    Supporting Actress wins usually go to first time nominees. I don’t know exactly how to identify the hesitation of Oscar voters with Amy Adams? Taken for granted like previous multi-nominees who never won competitively.

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    Bassett
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    #1204509296

    You don’t have to like her but she’s a beloved and respected figure in the industry. She’s worked with Scorsese, Tarantino and is currently filming a movie being directed by Damien Chazelle and will also be in Wes Anderson’s new movie. Her character Harley Quinn is a pop culture icon and her iteration of the character has been a popular Halloween costume since 2016. Robbie also seems popular at BAFTA (she got nominated for MQOS and got double nominations for Bombshell and OUATIH) and SAG (got nominated for MQOS). She’s also a successful producer in her own right and produced films that won Oscars (I, Tonya and Promising Young Woman). Robbie also produced the Netflix show Maid, starring Margaret Qualley, her OUATIH co-star.

    That doesn’t make her overdue, that just makes her an it girl

    It’s beyond obvious that she’ll easily win an Oscar due to the amount of prestige roles thrown her way but she’s been relevant for less than a decade and her first nom was 4 years ago, she’s not overdue

    FYC

    Best Actress - Pénélope Cruz, Olivia Colman

    Best Actor - Denzel Washington

    Best Supporting Actress - Aunjanue Ellis

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