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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 19)

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    loudtoilet
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    Feb 19th, 2020
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    #1204520186

    Stick a fork in Comer either as Lead or Supporting. TLD’s Thursday previews are abysmal 350K. Opening under 5M is done deal. Worse than Green Knight (almost 7M) lol and that was an arthouse with no stars.

    At least the movie ended up with strong reviews and Comer was raved so no one should feel bad for making it. Only the studio for dumping it which is what I was warning GD about for months and months and was called a hater. Well, toldja.

    Now MGM better NOT pull that s*** with Gucci. Marketing needs to pick up. They are done with promoting NTTD so Gucci should be their priority.

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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204520188

    Jessica Chastain at the premiere of The Eyes of Tammy Faye at the Rome Film Festival on October 14 (source: wireimage)

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520190

    Which means I have to say goodbye to Gaga or Colman.

    I can’t believe that had 100/1 odds on Jodie Comer and dropped her because of this forum’s ramblings after The Last Duel’s embargo was lifted lol (although thankfully I managed to get her again at 56/1 odds)

    I would drop Gaga. With how strong her performance is being received and Netflix firmly behind her I think (whilst not a lock) Colman is the closest thing to “safe” in this category after Stewart.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    loudtoilet
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    #1204520197

    Drop Chastain. Upcoming movies won’t do worse critically and boxoffice-wise than Tammy Faye so Gaga, Blanchett, Kidman have a shot. Netflix ladies too cause Netflix never reveal viewing numbers unless it’s some undeniable brag-worthy hit like Squid Game, etc.

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204520201

    Stick a fork in Comer either as Lead or Supporting. TLD’s Thursday previews are abysmal 350K. Opening under 5M is done deal. Worse than Green Knight (almost 7M) lol and that was an arthouse with no stars. At least the movie ended up with strong reviews and Comer was raved so no one should feel bad for making it. Only the studio for dumping it which is what I was warning GD about for months and months and was called a hater. Tell, toldja.

    None of the contenders this year are going to be big box office hits. You do realize that, right? The Eyes of Tammy Faye got average reviews and flopped hard at the box office, but a lot of people still have Chastain in their top 5 predictions for Best Actress.

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    wolfali
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    #1204520215

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye got average reviews and flopped hard at the box office, but a lot of people still have Chastain in their top 5 predictions for Best Actress.

    It’s interesting because The Eyes of Tammy Faye’s buzz literally ran out the second after it was released and the film tanked at the box office but apparently Chastain is a locked second.

    Yet Comer for some reason can’t make it in with strong reviews for a film improving in critical reception (that is a bigger contender overall) and only has just opened and has some buzz going for it.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204520226

    I do agree that box office probably won’t be an important factor. Even No Time to Die is having an underwhelming box office performance at US. Older audiences are not going back to the theaters. West Side Story will probably tank hard. Everything non-franchise related (but even Bond is having a hard time) will probably have a difficult time being a hit.

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    LA26
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    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204520228

    It’s interesting because The Eyes of Tammy Faye’s buzz literally ran out the second after it was released and the film tanked at the box office but apparently Chastain is a locked second. Yet Comer for some reason can’t make it in with strong reviews for a film improving in critical reception (that is a bigger contender overall) and only has just opened and has some buzz going for it.

    I think maybe it was because people were really skeptical about whether the subject matter would be handled in a sensitive manner, and also whether Ridley still “got it” if that makes sense. I’ll be honest: I kind of gave up hope of the critical reception improving after Venice but the recent resurgence and positivity makes me happy, specifically for Holofcener’s sake.

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204520232

    The Last Duel box office is going to be abysmal. It won’t even cross $5m this weekend. One could argue that box office isn’t very important these days, but this poor result is reflection of the lack of marketing by Disney. If they barely cared about the marketing, I doubt they’re going to spend a lot in an Oscar campaign.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204520240

    I think with both <i>The Last Duel</i> and The Eyes of Tammy Faye we’ll have to see how they perform with older voters once they hit Hulu after they wrap their 45 day theatrical runs.

    FYC:
    Picture: Passing, The Power of the Dog, Shiva Baby, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall, Pablo Larrain
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Winston Duke/James McAvoy
    Actress: Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart, Tessa Thompson
    S. Actor: Richard E. Grant, Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee
    S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
    O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
    A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204520258

    The Last Duel box office is going to be abysmal. It won’t even cross $5m this weekend. One could argue that box office isn’t very important these days, but this poor result is reflection of the lack of marketing by Disney. If they barely cared about the marketing, I doubt they’re going to spend a lot in an Oscar campaign.

    Similarly to my Tammy Fay screening, there was less than 5 people in my theater for both films. Perhaps the low turnout for The Last Duel for my theater was because it was on the Thursday screening? In any case, the number is really concerning.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204520276

    I think theaters are making more room for bigger films like No Time To Die, Venom 2 and Halloween Kills. I saw a tweet from someone in the UK yesterday who was angry that his local theater wasn’t offering enough screenings of The Last Duel and was making more room for Venom and Bond.

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    kallewickans
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204520294

    Being the Ricardos teaser coming NEXT WEEK!

     

    Queen Nicole is coming

     

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204520299

    Being the Ricardos teaser coming NEXT WEEK! Queen Nicole is coming

    Did Amazon officially confirm this?

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    Heptapod
    Joined:
    Sep 8th, 2021
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    #1204520325

    (Assuming McDormand goes supporting)

    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
    2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
    3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    5. Halle Berry, Bruised

    6. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    7. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
    8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
    9. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    10. Tessa Thompson, Passing
    11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    12. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
    13. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

    EMMYS FYC
    Dickinson – Hailee Steinfeld, Anna Baryshnikov
    Kevin Can F**k Himself – Mary Hollis Inboden
    Only Murders – James Caverley
    The Other Two – Drew Tarver, Heléne Yorke
    Physical – Rose Byrne
    Schmigadoon! – Ariana DeBose
    The White Lotus – Alexandra Daddario

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