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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 2)

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    kaziz
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    #1204372536

    That trailer contained basically zero content so I do think it’s early to write it off completely. It was pure marketing.

    RE: camp, there is absolutely no way to tell this story without leaning all the way in to camp – these people did such outrageous shit to each other that some of it would seem ridiculous if played completely straight. That said, there is a lot of emotional substance to the story as well – how much of it the film gives us remains to be seen of course.

    Gaga’s role is very showy. Driver’s drives (no pun intended) the plot.

    Oh I don’t doubt that these people did crazy shit and there is stuff to be mined. But at the end of the day, a film needs to go beyond just its plot for its performances. It may be a great funny line to say “father, son, house of gucci” but if Gaga’s character is mostly just…cheeky and murderous, then we’ll sort of have to see. My point is: the Oscars do really like “earnest” as opposed to camp (even Mulligan in PYW was mostly earnest). Off the top of my head, Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona got away with a very campy role. Which is weird because otherwise it was kind of an earnest film. To do that in lead? Hmm. Let’s see. The Italian accent, good or bad, is an advantage I’d say. Even if it’s bad it doesn’t really matter if she reveals real depths to her character because that’s…CAMP, BABY! :😊

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204372550

    New clip from Respect.

    Damn. I like this. Of course she can sing soul really well, that’s in her wheelhouse, but I’m kind of admiring the restraint she’s bringing. It looks like maybe the point in the movie where Aretha performs Respect for the first time. She’s not overdoing this earworm we all know so well, so I’m paying more attention to her.

    She has a home advantage with playing a singer. JHud seems the safest for a nod than anyone I can think of.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    schmids
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    Oct 10th, 2020
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    #1204372559

    Oh I don’t doubt that these people did crazy shit and there is stuff to be mined. But at the end of the day, a film needs to go beyond just its plot for its performances.

    Well yes, that is the point I am making – the plot does have a lot of emotional resonance. But the trailer doesn’t contain enough actual content (presumably because the film isn’t finished, and also because they knew a shot of Lady Gaga dragging Adam Driver into a bath by his tie was getting more views than a shot of them arguing) for us to make a genuine call on how much of those arcs we will see.

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    fefface
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    Jan 14th, 2020
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    #1204372575

    New clip from Respect.

    This is JHud singing Respect, not Aretha at all.

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    kaziz
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    #1204372580

    Well yes, that is the point I am making – the plot does have a lot of emotional resonance. But the trailer doesn’t contain enough actual content (presumably because the film isn’t finished, and also because they knew a shot of Lady Gaga dragging Adam Driver into a bath by his tie was getting more views than a shot of them arguing) for us to make a genuine call on how much of those arcs we will see.

    Yeah I agree with you. I don’t know yet, the trailer is not made to give us any info on the things I would need to know to predict the performance. I was just sort of writing what I think a campy performance will need. I guess there’s a reason they win more often in supporting (Cruz, but I also just thought of Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, ugh, because for some reason queer and especially trans characters ALWAYS have to be campy, all the characters of American Hustle were pretty campy, Zeta-Jones & Zellweger in Chicago). I guess…Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine was kinda campy? Yeah that’s a pretty great example of camp I think, because we see that over-the-top persona deconstructed by the end.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    JGibson
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    Jul 8th, 2012
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    #1204372632

    the reaching

    its called a joke

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    Vicki Leekx
    Joined:
    Aug 3rd, 2019
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    #1204372683

    This is JHud singing Respect, not Aretha at all.

    She won an acting Oscar for singing at the top of her uterus before, it could happen again…

    FYC:

    Virginie Efira, Charlotte Rampling, Lambert Wilson Benedetta (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Noomi Rapace Lamb (Actress)
    Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall Spencer (Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Penelope Cruz, Israel Elejalde, Milena Smit, Julieta Serrano, Rossy de Palma Madres Paralelas (Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress)
    Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren The Duke (Actor/Supporting Actress)

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204372688

    Gaga always seems hammy to me. I always cringe at the scene of ASIB where she just screams in the bathroom alone.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204372721

    To be fair to Gaga, everyone in that trailer was pretty sus

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Lucas
    Joined:
    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204372727

    Gaga always seems hammy to me. I always cringe at the scene of ASIB where she just screams in the bathroom alone.

    The writing of that film failed her a lot imo

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    kallewickans
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204372731

    Predictions Friday – Venice, Telluride, Toronto and the Festival Bounce

     

    Actress
    Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth
    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

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    LA26
    Joined:
    Apr 3rd, 2021
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    #1204372734

    https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/07/30/predictions-friday-venice-telluride-toronto-and-the-festival-bounce/ Actress Jennifer Hudson, Respect Frances McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth Lady Gaga, House of Gucci Jodie Comer, The Last Duel Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    No Jennifer Lawrence in their top 5?

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    ReginaIsKing
    Joined:
    Jul 3rd, 2020
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    #1204372739

    No Jennifer Lawrence in their top 5?

    And with Zegler instead. Wbk they are in delusion sis.

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    kallewickans
    Joined:
    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204372745

    Sadly no and Kirsten Stewart.

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    kaziz
    Joined:
    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204372748

    If she has a Supporting role with a Supporting amount of screen time, she will almost certainly not win the Volpi. I know you’ve read it and say based on the book she’s borderline, but there must be something in it if the studio are saying Supporting (and at such an early stage before we really know where her better chance is).

    Again, the reliable source said the studio are “probably” planning on pushing her in supporting, which is also probably why she hasn’t been shifted to supporting in the predictions center (once Netflix tells Gold Derby that’s the placement, they’ll move her). I really don’t even know what else to say without spoiling it—but she’s a co-lead. She will have the screen time (for that matter, technically even Plemons will have the screen time for a co-lead but that’s not what makes a lead obviously). I think she will probably BE frauded, because I think Cruz is taking the Volpi, but if she does, then Netflix would probably prefer to have the other ladies waiting in the wings (Conroy especially, but McKenzie has plenty of screentime too as the housemaid). We just don’t know yet. All I can say is that people are putting way too much stock in the synopsis telling them ALL the possible roles but it has a bigger ensemble than it may seem (Cumberbatch, Dunst, Plemons, Smit-McPhee, Conroy, McKenzie, and Adam Beach all have substantial parts, and this is after the total removal of other characters).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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