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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 2)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204372750

    No Jennifer Lawrence in their top 5?

    Listen, I understand basing predictions off of early cuts or drafts isn’t the best idea in the world, but the test screenings seemed to confirm my impression of JLaw’s character that I got from reading the script. And by that I mean JLaw’s character is underwritten and she doesn’t do anything with the character. I doubt she happens

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    kaziz
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    #1204372752

    No Jennifer Lawrence in their top 5?

    Someone posted about a test screening reaction on the BP thread & Streep, DiCaprio and Rylance were mentioned as most likely, but Lawrence has too little material to work with. It’s probably a co-lead role but if anyone recalls even that awful first script, she was kinda nothing in it. So I guess that hasn’t changed :/

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204372763

    You know, I honestly feel like it is an uncharacteristically small field this year, now that Kidman, de Armas are off the board, and I don’t see anyone who looks like a winner, with the possible exception of Jennifer Hudson.

    Last year around this time, I could see a case for a pretty big set of possibly-strong contenders like Davis, McDormand, Winslet, Loren, Pfeiffer, Mulligan, Jones, Adams, Moss, Buckley, Coon, Day and many who ended up pushed to this year.

    There’s obviously going to be indie film contenders, the Sidney Flanigans of the season, but it’s still a weak field. I honestly think The Lost Daughter should come out because if it does, Olivia Colman will win. Not just because it’s Colman, but because unlike Dune, The Power of the Dog, Passing, Macbeth, The Last DuelThe Lost Daughter is a fairly easy book to adapt in many ways. It’s very dialogue-heavy and Ferrante is very precise with a character’s inner world. It may not make a BP film but one would have to really fuck it up to not give Olivia Colman a winning performance from such a fantastic book.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    George Ehret
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    #1204372765

    You know, I honestly feel like it is an uncharacteristically small field this year, now that Kidman, de Armas are off the board, and I don’t see anyone who looks like a winner, with the possible exception of Jennifer Hudson.

    Stronger contenders will come up eventually. Maybe Dunst is Lead, maybe Chastain gives an astonishing performance, maybe Cruz is good enough, we don’t really know. I personally never thought either Buckley or Flanigan would get in, and I wasn’t too big on Pfeiffer either. A lot of people have a strong case. I don’t see this being much less competitive than last year unless some of these movies are outright terrible (and that is looking likely with some of them)

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Lucas
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    #1204372774

    1. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    2. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    3. Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    4. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of McBeth

    5. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    I only put Gaga first just based on how solid she seems to be. I don’t think she’s winning.

    Jennifer also seems solid to me, but if she doesn’t bring anything new to the table (narrative, transformation, undeniable performance) then I don’t see her as a threat for the win.

    Hopefully The Power… is the critically acclaimed prestige drama of the season that can give Kirsten her first nomination 🤞

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    Lucas
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    #1204372779

    Disappointed by the lack of news on A Mouthful of Air, the Amanda Seyfried vehicle. I was expecting it for the fall festivals…

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    Diamond Tier
    Joined:
    Aug 14th, 2020
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    #1204372791

    J.HUD’s sit down with Oprah gives great insight into how she approached portraying Aretha. I’d recommend ppl watch it.

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    kaziz
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    #1204372793

    Stronger contenders will come up eventually. Maybe Dunst is Lead, maybe Chastain gives an astonishing performance, maybe Cruz is good enough, we don’t really know. I personally never thought either Buckley or Flanigan would get in, and I wasn’t too big on Pfeiffer either. A lot of people have a strong case. I don’t see this being much less competitive than last year unless some of these movies are outright terrible (and that is looking likely with some of them)

    Oh I know, there were just many more “possibles” that I couldn’t rule out last year. This year it’s like a laundry list of “this will definitely not happen”. Because yeah like you said, many films look…bad. Dunno. Feels like a Zellweger in Judy year to me (there were plenty of good performances that year, they just weren’t competitive). Worst case scenario it’ll be like 2011 with a lot of incredible all-timer performances but none of them make it in lol. 2012 and 2020 were the weakest years for the category imo.

    FWIW—I think Cruz is likely to be pretty darn good? She’s always great in Almodovar films, especially the two where she was lead (Volver & Broken Embraces). We just don’t know if she’ll “happen”.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    crabbie
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    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204372799

    Predicting a retread of the 2020 Best Actress lineup.

    Frances McDormand (Tragedy of Macbeth) – Saoirse Ronan

    -Academy friendly role that honors a great literary work

    Jennifer Hudson (Respect) – Reneé Zellweger

    -Previous Oscar winner getting their Oscar comeback playing a beloved pop culture icon

    Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) – Scarlett Johansson

    -Overdue first Oscar nomination thespian that is heavily pushed by Netflix in this category

    Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) – Charlize Theron

    -Transformative role entailing heavy makeup and alterations to their voice that leads to their second Oscar nomination in Best Actress.

    No Cynthia Erivo this year unless Kristen Stewart (Spencer) possibly gets in who also plays an prominent historical figure?

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Elsa Korr
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    Oct 16th, 2020
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    #1204372806

    Few personal takes on actress race this year:

    To be honest. Im anticipating Penelope Cruz to be that good. If thats the case, she’ll be in contention.

    No One is really safe (except Hudson). Stewart has Larrain and Knight but all the Anne Boleyn thing doesnt sound like an Oscar thing.

    Gaga may be safe, but she could suffers from Ridley Scott inconsitencies and if the movie ended up below 50% on Rotten tomatoes/50 Metascore. Could be Amy Adams and Hillbily Elegy of this season (except for different subject matters.) Both Ron Howard and Ridley Scott are respected filmmakers who has been Shaky (especially Howard since Rush).

    I might be the minority but Jodie Comer is safer than Gaga. While both directed by Ridley Scott, Comer has Holofcener+Damon+Affleck Script, which is presumably Stronger than Gucci’s which was written by a first timer.

    Jessica Chastain in Tammy Faye screams Kate Winslet in Ammonite/Amy Adams in Hillbily Elegy.

    Olivia Colman could be the Vanessa Kirby of this season.

    Venice rejection could signs a lot of things for Macbeth, the movie being not that good could be one of them. Besides, will they nominate McDormand back to back especially for Mediocre movie??

    And not to mention some dark horses like Tessa Thompson, Emilia Jones could entered the mix especially if “presumed” frontrunners are flopping with their movies

     

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    kaziz
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    #1204372809

    Olivia Colman could be the Vanessa Kirby of this season.

    In that she gives the best performance? Jk jk.

    But no really, I feel really strongly about this: if The Lost Daughter is coming out this year then Olivia Colman will either be too good to pass up or she’ll be the one everyone thought should have won.

    We all know Colman will win her 2nd Oscar very soon. It could be this time.

    Strong suspicion: JHud will be much better than she was in Dreamgirls.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    ReddWhite
    Joined:
    Mar 20th, 2021
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    #1204372818

    End of July predictions now that half of the contenders have been pushed back or given trailers:

    *- might go supporting

    1. Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    2. Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    3. Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

    4. Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth*

    5. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    6. Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    7. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    8. Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    9. Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    10. Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air

    Emmys FYC: Jean Smart.

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    ESS
    Joined:
    Oct 28th, 2019
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    #1204372825

    Dunst Nation. If Gaga steals another award from her, I will lose it.

    I don’t know. I got Razzies vibe when I watched House of Gucci trailer. Specially for Gaga (who along with Yalitza) robbed Collete’s spot in Best Actress Lineup of 2018…

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204372830

    Everyone in this forum seems confident in Hudson, but I have a bad feeling about that film. I know Andra Day got in for Billie Holiday, but if it were a more competitive year (who else was getting in that 5, Amy Adams 💀) she could’ve been snubbed. There’s just certain factors about that film and how competitive this race is that smells like she could be a snub. I can’t really explain why

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Aint2Proud2Beg
    Joined:
    Jan 15th, 2017
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    #1204372836

    OMG!!! Gaga is killing it, she’s a strong contender. She embodies that Russian character completely and her Russian accent is top notch.

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