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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 20)

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    KB93
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    #1204527473

    The Being the Ricardos trailer is doing Kidman such a disservice by barely showing her. It’s October and we lack clarity on what type of performance she will bring to the screen. You really need to build HEAVY buzz starting in October for a film released in December if you want to win. I was thinking Kidman was the alternative to Stewart and still do, but Stewart is miles ahead of everyone in the competition.

    You know who it’s making room for though right?

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    kallewickans
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    #1204527479

    The Oscars aren’t until March, if anything this is a good move for late breakers like Gaga and Kidman at getting on the board at least. Kristen has to maintain this momentum for like six months.

    .

    Believe me she will, between her film critic stans and her stans working around  the clock  with social media especially twitter.

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    crabbie
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    The Oscars aren’t until March, if anything this is a good move for late breakers like Gaga and Kidman at getting on the board at least. Kristen has to maintain this momentum for like six months.

    McDormand’s buzz started at Venice in September and ended with an Oscar in April. The Father was released at Sundance in January 2020 and Hopkins ended up with an Oscar in April of this year. Creating buzz at festivals is an essential tool to winning Oscars that latebreak contenders lack.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    crabbie
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    #1204527489

    You know who it’s making room for though right?

    Just remembered Lucille Ball was Blanchett’s passion project before she dropped out (probably because she found out Sorkin was involved let’s be real). Imagine if her fictional morally ambiguous character in Nightmare Alley gets in over Kidman…

    Also would love to see which Aussie will win at AACTA. Collette is coming for that Supporting Actress trophy there for sure.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Spencer
    Director: Jane Campion, Pablo Larraín
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Kristen Stewart
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rebecca Ferguson
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Spencer
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Last Night in Soho

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    kbc
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    #1204527494

    Just remembered Lucille Ball was Blanchett’s passion project before she dropped out (probably because she found out Sorkin was involved let’s be real).

    She knew what was up.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    #1204527496
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Rachel615
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    #1204527500

    Gaga stans think she lost for ASIB because her momentum started too early and peaked, but she was never winning. Her frontrunner status was just a pundit thing. Glenn had the biggest narrative, and Colman had the most acclaimed performance.

    Momentums don’t peak and die like that, and if they do, there’s always a specific reason behind (like backlash).

    Sometimes, like last year with Chadwick Boseman, momentum peaks simply because enough voters decide that someone else gave a stronger performance.

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    kbc
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    #1204527506

    McDormand’s buzz started at Venice in September and ended with an Oscar in April. The Father was released at Sundance in January 2020 and Hopkins ended up with an Oscar in April of this year. Creating buzz at festivals is an essential tool to winning Oscars that latebreak contenders lack.

    Yes, it’s why Penelope Cruz and even Renate Reinsve are in some ways much stronger bets than Blanchett, Gaga or Kidman at this point.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Babylonian
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    #1204527509

    So what is everyone seeing in the Being The Ricardos teaser that eludes me?

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    Rachel615
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    #1204527511

    That’s not a matter of peaking too early, it’s a matter of another performance having more passion and changing the release date wouldn’t change anything.

    It’s semantics, but I believe that had last year’s Oscar ceremony not been pushed back, and had Chadwick died months closer in time to when the awards were handed out, he would have won.

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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Rachel615
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    #1204527529

    Maybe, but you are talking about death here. It’s an unique and delicate situation, not comparable to oscar campaigns in general.

    I don’t think I am disagreeing with you; I was merely pointing out that momentum in an Oscar race can peak or stall for a variety of reasons. And unfortunately, while rare, it’s not unique for an actor to die during an Oscar season. It happened with Peter Finch and with Heath Ledger, but I’m unsure whether the timing of their deaths had a decisive impact on their awards.

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    Cosmia
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    #1204527533

    Nightmare Alley exists in this weird blind spot for me. Like, for a movie that’s near the top of the prediction boards the buzz has died way down, right?

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    GWalters
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    #1204527566

    People need to calm down about the Being the Ricardos teaser. It’s a teaser..The full trailer will be released next month, the film itself will come out in December and oscar nominations won’t even be announced until February next year, 4 months away..

    Considering the film only wrapped in July this year, it’s a miracle it actually made the deadline to be eligible for awards season and it’s why the film hasn’t had time to create buzz at any of the film festivals like the other films have. Imagine if everyone just based Kristen Stewart’s whole performance on nothing else but the initial teaser for Spencer which is basically what some are doing right now with Kidman.

     

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