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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 21)

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    kallewickans
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    For me it is: (Safe for nom) Stewart Colman and then in no order: Kidman Blanchett Thompson Chastain Berry and maybe Cruz fighting for the 3 left spots

     

    For me the safest bets are the 3 Festival Darlings.

    1. Stewart

    2. Colman

    3. Cruz

    4. Berry

    5. Kidman

    If Halle and Nicole movies flops the last 2 spots are open for Jessica, Thompson, Hudson. Gaga , Comer, Blanchett and Frances.

    Third day of SAG screenings, Neon is doing multiple screenings at once.

    Oh ok thanks dear,how many SAG screenings are films alloweded? (sorry for the dumb question)

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    carla11
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    Eh, there have been other BA nominees in ‘mediocre’ films. Halle has the advantage of directing her film, and her role being physically demanding as well.

    She not only has the most compelling narrative this year (which I still believe matters, narratives that is) but one of the most compelling in years. So long as the film is not totally panned, if the direction is solid and Halle’s performance really good, I’m still bullish on her nomination chances.

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    Rilke
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    I’m a Gaga stan but I’m quite sure these few people are pretending to be her fans just to get others riled up and try to bring her down. Either that or they’re beyond delusional when it comes to certain topics, holy fuck.

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    Doshi
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    Kristen Stewart is scheduled for another SAG Q&A Oct 27th in Los Angeles 👑✨ Kristen is working her magic. Is this her 3rd SAG Q&A?

    neon is not playing around!!! Let’s see if it plays out in their favor at the end..

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    kallewickans
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    Eh, there have been other BA nominees in ‘mediocre’ films. Halle has the advantage of directing her film, and her role being physically demanding as well. She not only has the most compelling narrative this year (which I still believe matters, narratives that is) but one of the most compelling in years. So long as the film is not totally panned, if the direction is solid and Halle’s performance really good, I’m still bullish on her nomination chances.

     

    Im glad that there are a lot of people rooting for Halle than people hating on her , I think part of it is that she’s the only Oscar caliber  in her movie unlike other actresses, but they aren’t looking at the bigger picture like as you say the narrative is that she hasn’t been nominated for 20 years and her directing herself back to Oscar nomination is a huge deal. Her movie role sort of mirrors her real life struggles. Her narrative is any pr dream.

     

    If they can praise to high heaven every Creed film in existence without calling out the mandatory cliches of an “underdog in sports” script, they can go easy on Bruised, too. People seems to question is she really in the conversation or just wishful thinking. Oscar pundits are not putting her on their prediction top 10 it’s because she’s directing herself. Hopefully it changes once they see bruised at the AFI  Filmfest The AMPAS seems to love comeback.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Cosmia
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    Questioning whether Halle Berry gets nominated for what appears to be a middling sports drama is not “hating” on her.

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    Ash
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    Halle looks like she giving a really good performance in bruised im waiting to see if she gets raves and a nice amount of hype when the movie premiere at AFI. If that’s goes well with how baity her role is a mom will become very realistic. It’s so many contenders right now that if you don’t have both hype and raves and a good campaign going a nom is unrealistic in a bloodbath year like this.

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    Lil Tony
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    Y’all Gaga haters can cry all you want. All I know is that Jodie Comer isn’t happening in best actress. They have to take her down to supporting if they want her to happen.

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

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    Lil Tony
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    Im glad that there are a lot of people rooting for Halle than people hating on her , I think part of it is that she’s the only Oscar caliber in her movie unlike other actresses, but they aren’t looking at the bigger picture like as you say the narrative is that she hasn’t been nominated for 20 years and her directing herself back to Oscar nomination is a huge deal. Her movie role sort of mirrors her real life struggles. Her narrative is any pr dream. If they can praise to high heaven every Creed film in existence without calling out the mandatory cliches of an “underdog in sports” script, they can go easy on Bruised, too. People seems to question is she really in the conversation or just wishful thinking. Oscar pundits are not putting her on their prediction top 10 it’s because she’s directing herself. Hopefully it changes once they see bruised at the AFI Filmfest The AMPAS seems to love comeback.

    I wasn’t hating on Halle. In fact, I’ve been rooting for her and that’s why I included her on my personal list. It’s just that the film doesn’t look like it’ll be an award player, but I might be wrong. Like I said earlier, she’s long overdue for a comeback. It’s painful that her historic win did not bring her the opportunities she deserves despite being regarded as an “IT” girl back in the day

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

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    Lil Tony
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    Winning on your first nomination is hard, especially if your performance is tied to an ”artsy” Pablo Larrain movie (that could very easily miss out on a best picture nom). But I’m totally down for Kristen Stewart winning this year. Someone said Gaga would be the most interesting win – hard disagree. Kristen Stewart win would literally break the internet.

    Well, Stewart is in a straight up biopic of a beloved and sympathetic famous royalty. It’s the type that usually wins. Gaga on the other hand is playing a convicted murderer a lot of people don’t know of in a campy buzzy film. Nothing can be more interesting than Patrizia Reggiani winning. Stewart is the most popular contender after Gaga, so she’d made headlines and trends for sure, but Gucci itself would break the internet. The line “father, son, and house of Gucci” is already iconic and the costumes has set a fashion standard for many people on the Internet. Just give it to Gaga and get it over with. I’ll still be happy if Stewart wins because she’s suffered so much scrutiny. I remember many people here condemning her when the project was announced

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

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    Cosmia
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    As a film gay who likes Lady Gaga, camp and fashion, you might be overstating things a tad.

    Also, Spencer is decidedly not a straight-up biopic.

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    kbc
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    I really don’t understand the gleeful hard-on some commenters on the site have for tearing down Anne Dowd and Mass and her chances at a nomination. One awards body has announced its 2021 nominees, and the “fait accompli” chorus is amplified.

    She may not get a nomination. Or she may. Same can be said for Plimpton, Dunst, Dench, Negga, etc. Deep breaths. Part 5 on this topic, and nominations are months away.

    Just as an fyi, I have nothing “against” anyone involved in the production of Mass. It’s the external forces that came into play around the film and its awards potential that raised my hackles.

    I’ll not rehash my take on why Ann Dowd stans’ & impulsive “pundits'” ridiculously early/overwhelming “endorsement” of Dowd–which was in part facilitated by the flawed initial GD odds-making process and perhaps contributed to undermining Bleecker Street’s campaign strategy–damaged the IRL (not GD) odds of the Academy’s recognizing her work, the (imo) superior performance of co-star Martha Plimpton, and the film in general.

    Instead, I offer a couple of illustrative excerpts from Oscar-race coverage posted on Friday. You could call it…

    Beyond the Shadow of a Dowd

    From Vanity Fair’s latest take on the race:

    Of supporting plays, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Mass, which has four extremely compelling performances, especially from Ann Dowd, who’s working the circuit hard for that (deserved) first nom.

    “Especially” because of the GD odds site that pundits of the lazy variety lean on, perhaps? 🙃 If you want to cite Dowd and her hitting the campaign trail, go ahead – but to let Martha Plimpton, who is also in line for a “(deserved)” first nom, go unnamed as many pundits have done before him? Poor form; it leads one to ask if he even saw this film.

    And this piece was published after the release of the Gotham nominations (which are mentioned elsewhere in the article) that singled out neither Dowd nor Plimpton, but supporting-actor contender Reed Birney, who also goes unnamed by the VF writers. Selectively ignoring those nominations appears to be fueling still another example of the punditry being unable to to permit any disruption of that cannot-be-questioned “Dowd-is-in” narrative–built as it is, though, upon a faulty and distorted foundation. (Of course, had Dowd been nominated by the Gothams, he’d be crowing about it here… in neon lights.)

    But, unsurprisingly, wishy-washy fodder like this is simply space-filling for now. Even the VF piece points to that with a “to be sure”-style statement (itself doing some filling of space) that any of us could write, if we had less shame.

    So what have we learned here? I’d say there are definitely front-runners in most of the races at this point, but there’s still plenty of time for things to be shaken up and plenty of unseen films to do that shaking. I do wonder if, when we sit down to do this sort of article in December, things will look very different. But that’s the fun of all this!

    “The Oscar season is definitely a race with prizes, many of which are important, and many people that are involved with numerous movies. They include multitudes of performances and a great amount of cinematography and editing….” 🤣

    Now, here’s NY Mag/Vulture’s latest take in its weekly “Oscar Futures” fixture:

    The pundit says he believes that in the supporting-actress race the chances that Dune‘s Rebecca Ferguson and The Lost Daughter‘s Jessie Buckley will be nominated are on the rise (even citing Buckley’s Gothams nom as evidence of her improving odds). But the pundit’s predictions read as follows (and yes, the guy misspells Caitríona Balfe’s first name, which he also did last week).

    Catriona [sic] Balfe, Belfast; Judi Dench, Belfast; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard; Ruth Negga, Passing

    And here are his predix from a week earlier.

    Catriona [sic] Balfe, Belfast; Judi Dench, Belfast; Ann Dowd, Mass; Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    One of these things is not like the other.

    One could rightly assume it has to be lot easier for him to drop Dowd quietly (“maybe nobody will notice”) than it would be to explain why she’s been knocked out in favor of Ruth Negga, who like the spotlighted Buckley received a Gothams nom, but also has not suddenly surged in buzz just from that. In fact, as we know she has been a longtime fixture of many GD message board contributors’ predix.

    So, of course, there’s Dowd’s Gothams snub that the Vulture pundit could point to for dropping her, but citing that would raise questions about why he initially included her (over, say, Martha Plimpton or even Negga), to which the honest response would likely be something along the lines of “Well, she’s been leading the odds on GD” (prime evidence of cheap, shallow pundit groupthink at its worst) or simply his own distorted stanning (“OMG, Aunt Lydia is coming!”), either of which would be just a bit humiliating … and revealing … in a professional outlet’s piece that should be offering analysis going somewhat beyond that.

    NB: I’ll try to dig a bit deeper (though that may be a challenge) into these two pieces in the main BP/BD forum.

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    FilmRoyalty
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    I can see how some may not be sold on Halle.

    I’m just hopeful.

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