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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 23)

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    wolfali
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    #1204553497

    I am certain the final 5 will be an assortment of these 7 contenders. Incredible how likely it is 4 of the nominees will be past Oscar winners, but even more difficult to narrow down the final five since each contender seem so competitive with a strong pedigree + performance.

    I think all 10 of them will make a precursor (Chastain could get in at SAG, Comer at the BAFTAs and CC) but I only think the top 8 are competitive for the nomination.

    It’s going to be difficult to predict. I do however feel somewhat confident in my top 3. Stewart is not missing for playing Princess Diana with these raves and at worst Colman is feeling like this year’s Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? type contender (a well received performance in a top screenplay contender and film placing 8th to 12th in Picture). I was shaky on Cruz but she did win the Volpi and Sony Pictures Classics are said to be pushing a Father style campaign for Parallel Mothers so…

    There seem to be two groups when it comes down to the last two slots with leads from Picture contenders (McDormand, Thompson, Blanchett) and biopic/performances of real life figures (Gaga, Kidman etc). If House of Gucci ends up being a contender for a Picture nomination I will move Gaga up to my top 3.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    wolfali
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    #1204553509

    Gaga is coming for the Twilight girl me thinks

    Like when she came for Olivia Colman in 2019?

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    TrumpBiden
    Joined:
    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1204553517
    1. Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
    2. Kristen Stewart – Spencer
    3. Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza (big shock, nobody is predicting her. She’s going to surprise.)
    4. Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughters
    5. Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    – I honestly want to predict Comer, but does The Last Duel have that much support and this is such a staked field

    – I see a world in which Chastaine misses. The movie just doesn’t have energy behind it

    – Jennifer Hudson could be the,”oh f%$ Academy why did you pick her,” nominee of this year,

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    kallewickans
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204553519

    1. Kristen

    2. Gaga

    3.Olivia

    4. Penelope

    5.???

    The  the last will be between Nicole, Cate, Tessa, Comer, Jhud and Halle. Hopefully 1 spot for the woc. It will be tragic if the Ampas can’t even at least nominate 1.

     

     

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    crabbie
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    #1204553527

    I think all 10 of them will make a precursor (Chastain could get in at SAG, Comer at the BAFTAs and CC) but I only think the top 8 are competitive for the nomination. It’s going to be difficult to predict. I do however feel somewhat confident in my top 3. Stewart is not missing for playing Princess Diana with these raves and at worst Colman is feeling like this year’s Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me? type contender (a well received performance in a top screenplay contender and film placing 8th to 12th in Picture). I was shaky on Cruz but she did win the Volpi and Sony Pictures Classics are said to be pushing a Father style campaign for Parallel Mothers so… There seem to be two groups when it comes down to the last two slots with leads from Picture contenders (McDormand, Thompson, Blanchett) and biopic/performances of real life figures (Gaga, Kidman etc). If House of Gucci ends up being a contender for a Picture nomination I will move Gaga up to my top 3.

    We have the same line-up except I had replaced Cruz with McDormand. It’s very dangerous to bet against Cruz considering she won the Volpi Cup and her film has been making waves at Venice, NYFF, and will appear in AFI. That’s a great festival showing to help sustain Cruz’s buzz.

    At the same time I think it’s concerning Spain neglected to submit Parallel Mothers. I know Marion Cotillard won with France not even submitting La Vie En Rose, but I still see red flags in Cruz’s award trajectory.

    There seem to be two groups when it comes down to the last two slots with leads from Picture contenders (McDormand, Thompson, Blanchett) and biopic/performances of real life figures (Gaga, Kidman etc). If House of Gucci ends up being a contender for a Picture nomination I will move Gaga up to my top 3.

    Agreed with you Colman and Stewart are locks. I believe Gaga and Kidman are also safe provided their films are not critically panned. Gaga benefits from incredible buzz and Gucci being a box office player. Kidman is playing Lucille Ball, enough said. I have McDormand in by virtue of an afterglow nomination and also if the acting branch nominates, it would make sense for them to nominate Lady Macbeth herself. I have her in 5th place though since it’s possible voters could be cold to Tragedy of Macbeth. It’s difficult to omit Blanchett from any line-up, but I really need to see how Searchlight campaigns her and if Nightmare Alley isn’t some disaster with how post-production still has yet to be completed.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Picture: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, C'mon C'mon
    Director: Jane Campion, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Pablo Larraín, Paul Thomas Anderson,
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix. Hidetoshi Nishijima
    Actress: Kristen Stewart, Alana Haim
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Cate Blanchett, Ariana DeBose
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee
    Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza, C'mon C'mon,

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    kallewickans
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    #1204553529

    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer 2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter 3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers 4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci 5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos 6. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley 7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth 8. Tessa Thompson, Passing 9. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel 10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

     

    We have identical but i’m leaving the last spot open anyone can get in.Even a panned movie can get in and the performances can elevate a bad movie.

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    nevkm
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    #1204553535

     

    Like when she came for Olivia Colman in 2019?

    The fact that the craziness of that season might repeat now. The Best Actress thread was literally possessed.

     

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    kbc
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    Sep 16th, 2021
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    #1204553560

    Ugh, and there he goes

    FYC
    Best Picture: Jockey
    Director: Clint Bentley
    Actor: Clifton Collins Jr.
    Supporting Actress: Molly Parker
    Supporting Actor: Moises Arias
    Original Screenplay: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Cinematography: Adolpho Veloso
    Film Editing: Parker Laramie
    Music Score: Aaron & Bryce Dessner

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    Babylonian
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    #1204553576

    I’m hoping Gaga and Kristen do a THR round table together this season.

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    kallewickans
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    #1204553578

    https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2021/11/q45dkohc72w575jv9nerfhsa2wb95s

     

    Stewart’s Diana is portrayed as a total lunatic. She feels stuck and victimized, but is part of the most white-privileged of circumstances. You have no sympathy for her whatsoever. You just wish she could go see a therapist or get proper medication. The troubling behaviour she displays doesn’t necessarily come with consolation — you don’t feel pity for her plight, but just annoyance.

    The inner demons Diana must have felt are rendered here in such skittish ways that there is absolutely no room for nuance. Claire Mathon’s beautiful photography does enhance the cinematic aspect of the whole thing, but Larrain, who fared much better in “Jackie,” delivers an empty statement with elusiveness in its contours. [C]

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    BigJay2012
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    #1204553580

    I fear Tessa Thompson won’t get in….just like Taraji P. Henson didn’t get in for Hidden Figures…despite her co star getting a nomination….and I think Ruth Negga is getting in just like Octavia Spencer got in. Taraji was in at least a BP nominee…and SAG winner. Tessa is 7th/8th right now I believe.

    Halle’s film needs to be really good, even if her performance is fantastic. The film needs to be great

    1. Kristen Stewart
    2. Olivia Colman
    3. Nicole Kidman
    4. Penelope Cruz
    5. Gaga
    6. Jessica Chastain
    7. Jennifer Hudson
    8. Tessa Thompson
    9. Frances McDormand
    10. Halle Berry

    I don’t think AMPAS will have a problem not nominating a woman of color this year.

    If Penelope is in Olivia is in. The fact that people are saying this performance is BETTER than her Oscar winning performance…and the fact that she is the buzziest British Actress right now. You better believe she is in, honey.

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    wolfali
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    #1204553582

    At the same time I think it’s concerning Spain neglected to submit Parallel Mothers.

    Fair enough. Although I think it’s worth mentioning that Talk to Her also wasn’t submitted by Spain and it went to WIN original screenplay. And the academy has become more internationalist since then.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    kallewickans
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    #1204553589

    I fear Tessa Thompson won’t get in….just like Taraji P. Henson didn’t get in…despite her co star getting a nomination….and I think Ruth Negga is getting in just like Octavia Spencer got in. Taraji was in at least a BP nominee…and SAG winner. Halle’s film needs to be really good, even if her performance is fantastic. The film needs to be great

    We will know soon enough next week at AFI film fest.

     

     

     

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    wolfali
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    #1204553593

    The fact that the craziness of that season might repeat now. The Best Actress thread was literally possessed.

    I didn’t visit the best actress threads that year but I remember going to the BAFTA one briefly and the fights over Colman vs Close and Bale vs Malek…

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    BigJay2012
    Joined:
    Nov 30th, 2011
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    #1204553600

    We will know soon enough next week at AFI film fest.

    k

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