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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 24)

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    musterd
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    I think Thompson hasn’t updated her BA category since 26 Oct. May need to wait for her next update

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    LA26
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    I think Thompson hasn’t updated her BA category since 26 Oct. May need to wait for her next update

    She updated nearly all of her other predictions about 5-6 hours ago though.

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    James Gibson
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    I think Thompson hasn’t updated her BA category since 26 Oct. May need to wait for her next update

    I think she just chose not to update BA and other categories despite watching more stuff since her opinion didnt change.

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    laslo
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    I laugh at every single joke about Lady Gaga and Patrizia’s spirit on twitter, how can she be so unintentionally funny, both of these tweets are funny but also cute cause it shows how she takes her roles VERY seriously

     

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    LA26
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    #1204560714

    It’s PTA day, which means we might get first reactions to Alana Haim’s performance (unless there’s an embargo) in Licorice Pizza. First screening starts today in LA at 2:00 pm. According to worldofreel, the film’s New York premiere will be on Tuesday.

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    Marrowbone
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    #1204560718

    No Spencer in theaters in France thanks to Amazon.. The queen be like:

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204560759

    Based on her updated predictions, it looks like Anne Thompson saw House of Gucci and The Tragedy of Macbeth. She didn’t add Gaga or McDormand to her predictions for BA (only Leto for SA and Corey Hawkins as well). McDormand’s exclusion is strange considering she has her film in for BP, BD and Adapted Screenplay.

    I don’t think she has seen House of Gucci and she didn’t share anything related to that film on Twitter, either. She might just move Jared Leto upward because of the second trailer and the current hype around the film.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    kbc
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    #1204560777

    AND YET—this happens every year, but one of the most fascinating things is that I don’t actually remember the last time, in any of the acting categories, that the top 2 from Sept-Oct onwards don’t end up at least being nominated…

    Melissa Leo in Novitiate is one that I remember, but I’m pretty sure she’d dropped out of the top 10 by the time the fall festivals ended. Despite 3k, 4k people, something about the consensus top 2 is usually pretty darn accurate (in terms of nom). Below that, yeah. Does anyone remember somebody who was at #1 at THIS point and was never nominated? I can’t…

    The case of Ann Dowd puts me in mind of the inordinate amount of buzz coming out of Telluride and then TIFF in 2019 around A24’s Waves and the TV-show stans/pundits were in overdrive pushing Sterling K Brown as nearly locked for a nom in supporting actor. The “This Is Us” fans plus those thinking Waves would be another A24 awards season success after Moonlight were intensely pushing that narrative (I don’t know how high Brown rose in GD odds, but it definitely felt like he was near the top from all the pundit chatter.) But Brown and Waves all but fell off the map at precursor time and vanished from all pundit picks soon after. Not helping matters was the fact that A24 was also juggling The Lighthouse, The Farewell and Uncut Gems, not always smoothly, and the studio ended up being virtually shut out on Oscar nomination morning.

    Had Waves been a Sundance premiere instead of a Telluride one, it is likely Brown would have had a Dowd-style hammerlock in GD odds for supporting actor at least for a while.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    JV
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    #1204560781

    I don’t think she has seen House of Gucci and she didn’t share anything related to that film on Twitter, either. She might just move Jared Leto upward because of the second trailer and the current hype around the film.

    She only predicts movies she has seen. If she’s predicting Leto and Gucci in Costumes, it means she watched the movie.

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    Barbra Please
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    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204560786

    I didn’t know I entered a Stan Wars clan darling, please show the way how to get into Best Actress thread.

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    kbc
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    #1204560788

    She only predicts movies she has seen. If she’s predicting Leto and Gucci in Costumes, it means she watched the movie.

    Yep and she’s complying with the strict MGM/UA social embargo, thus no tweets about it. I figure she’ll be seeing Licorice Pizza very soon.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    keybored
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    #1204560849

    Dying at Spencer’s audience score reaching 60 yesterday and dropping back to 51 again Deserved. Really eager for its cinemascore now

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    Plumpshell
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    Sep 26th, 2021
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    #1204560865

    I laugh at every single joke about Lady Gaga and Patrizia’s spirit on twitter, how can she be so unintentionally funny, both of these tweets are funny but also cute cause it shows how she takes her roles VERY seriously

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    oh Gaga is always in on the joke. The difference with her and Madonna is that Gaga doesn’t take herself so seriously. She will play the part of the super extra, committed artist but underestimate her at your peril. This is how she has always manouvred through Hollywood. She will get your attention. If it ain’t broke…

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    Vicki Leekx
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    #1204560870

    Thoroughly enjoyed Spencer, cinema had only a few empty seats. A group of elderly women behind me clapped at the end. Dirty Diana is probably winning. Soothing Sally and Spy Spall should also be nominated with Pablo, a provocative director the world needs.

    The world also needs a GIF of the actress who plays Camilla (I can’t find her name?)

    FYC:

    Swinton, Weerasethakul Memoria, (Best Actress, Director)
    Efira, Rampling, Wilson Benedetta (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)
    Rapace Lamb (Best Actress)
    Stewart, Hawkins, Spall Spencer (Best Actress, Supporting Actress/Actor)

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    hildy1050
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    Sep 4th, 2021
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    #1204560874

    AND YET—this happens every year, but one of the most fascinating things is that I don’t actually remember the last time, in any of the acting categories, that the top 2 from Sept-Oct onwards don’t end up at least being nominated… Melissa Leo in Novitiate is one that I remember, but I’m pretty sure she’d dropped out of the top 10 by the time the fall festivals ended. Despite 3k, 4k people, something about the consensus top 2 is usually pretty darn accurate (in terms of nom). Below that, yeah. Does anyone remember somebody who was at #1 at THIS point and was never nominated? I can’t…

    This is really interesting. Can people think of a time when someone got nominated who wasn’t in the Top 10 of Gold Derby combined odds at this point, or even by December? It’s really hard to pinpoint what the industry/AMPAS will respond to vs critics and casual viewers/pundits

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