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lol cmon guys, this movie sounds like everything I was afraid it would be but Gaga’s getting in, no question. You ONLY need 8%… literally…only…
Curious where did you hear this? Because that’s such a low threshold tbh.
I don’t think there’s any question that Gaga will get nominated at this point. She and Stewart are the two locks at the moment. (Chastain will be a fringe fifth-slot, if that.)
As for who wins? Well, I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to avoid the Film Gay Turf Wars regardless.
Curious where did you hear this? Because that’s such a low threshold tbh.
Eh, can’t bother finding all the math but it’s a guesstimate based off a bajillion articles on Oscar math. Technically, the threshold varies every year but there’s no real floor, there’s a ceiling of 16% (because it’s [total number of ballots]/[number of categories + 1], so 16% is definitely guaranteed).
But obviously the 5 nominees never have an equal number of #1s or an equal number of total ballots (it’s preferential ballot-style for nominees) so the threshold can differ each year & the floor is the threshold, so theoretically it can average out to a pretty low ass number. It’s kind of like a probabilistic distribution, it’s a giant guesstimate obviously but it’s basically done exactly like how the BP preferential ballot win is calculated. Basically a “if you’re on enough ballots & at least 8% #1s, prettttty darn likely” probabilistically. You can Google the distributions though, the threshold in any given year can be as low as a few % I think, theoretically speaking.
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
I don’t think there’s any question that Gaga will get nominated at this point. She and Stewart are the two locks at the moment. (Chastain will be a fringe fifth-slot, if that.) As for who wins? Well, I don’t know, but I’ll do my best to avoid the Film Gay Turf Wars regardless.
What about Olivia Colman?
Curious where did you hear this? Because that’s such a low threshold tbh.
Funny story, this was an exam question on a freshman undergrad class of mine lol
Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.
The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.The knives will be out, but I will say it. This is exactly how I initially thought it would turn out based on that first and now second trailer. Not dropping Leto just yet but yeah, this was my thoughts lol
Ellwood is only like 1 of the 3 people who truly hated it tho.
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost DaughterJennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Halle Berry, Bruised
Rooney Mara, Nightmare AlleyNicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Tessa Thompson, PassingHave a great day if you see this!
FYC:
The Great
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Severance
The BatmanThe Grammyfication of AMPAS
Right? Alana Haim with an Oscar nomination would be a DREAM.
Lmao, Stewart is the only one that is still locked here and still the winner even if Spencer doesn’t get a Picture nom. Gaga can get Globe and SAG noms but with Gucci probably having a mess of a reception, she’s not in win territory here and will be fighting for the same middlebrow votes that Chastain and Kidman will be competing for as well. That’s not even mentioning the other highbrow contenders like McDormand, Colman, Cruz, and possibly Alana Haim now.
Aw Bassett don’t break my heart. Gaga’s obviously better in general, but JLo ate that UP, maybe the only good performance she’s even given but still
I liked Gaga’s performance in A Star is Born, but it wasn’t better than Jennifer Lopez’s best performances.
Out of Sight, Lila and Eve, Angel Eyes, Selena, Hustlers, an Unfinished Life, The Cell. She was good in all those movies and people do too much saying she’s a bad actress. At worst she’s inconsistent, but an all around BAD actress she is not.
Lmao, Stewart is the only one that is still locked here and still the winner even if Spencer doesn’t get a Picture nom.
Even if it misses picture, it will still get a host of nominations which would make it quite the widely seen film in the academy.
FYC:
"The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.
Being the Ricardos ought to release another trailer soon to build buzz otherwise Stewart is deservedly sweeping.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Glad about Gaga!!! 👏
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