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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    wolfali
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    #1204377049

    Yes she did it was confirmed in an interview with her. At worst, The Last Duel becomes the Jodier Comer show and it misses all ATL categories.

    I think if the film is a bit meh and the field is competitive she does risk missing the nomination but I don’t see how she misses the BAFTA nomination with how much the jury likes to nominate rising Hollywood stars.

    FYC: Together in all categories (Actress – Sharon Horgan, Actor – James McAvoy, Original Screenplay), Shiva Baby (Adapted Screenplay, Score), CODA (in all categories esp. S. Actor – Troy Kotsur), Zola (S. Actress – Riley Keough), Together Together (Original Screenplay), The Sparks Brothers (Documentary Feature), Summer of Soul (Documentary Feature)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204377238

    I saw on AwardsWorthy that Spencer is being screened today. Anyone know anything about that?

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    kaziz
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    #1204377386

    For me, right now, the field looks like this. I’m sorry if it offends anyone if your fave isn’t there, I just don’t really buy that they’re contenders either because they’re not the prominent ones in their film or because I feel like the film will…flop.

    Jennifer Hudson, Respect
    Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth*
    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog*
    Jodie Comer, The Last Duel*
    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
    Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

    Harder path imo but very possible:
    Kristen Stewart, Spencer
    Tessa Thompson, Passing
    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
    Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    Thomasin McKenzie, Last Night in Soho
    Emilia Jones, Coda
    Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

    *could go supporting but I doubt it in all 3 cases.

    TL;DR: Many of these will probably not happen, but I think there’s pros to each.

    – Reinsve, Jones, Thompson have already gotten acclaim, and could be critics group faves, but each would need their films to get more attention than they’re currently receiving.
    – Blanchett & Dunst will be in what look like the biggest BP players out of the bunch.
    – McDormand could potentially miss if TGOM really misses critically, but it’s still doubtful unless there’s a better contender overall.
    – Zegler is a star on the rise who seems to have really endeared herself to a lot of people & built a public persona already, somehow. If West Side Story is a hit, I certainly can’t count her out.
    – Cruz, McKenzie, Stewart, Comer either need to overcome mediocre films or get standout reviews for themselves regardless of how the film does. Stewart for me has a harder path only because she needs to give a career-best to pull this off (possible!)
    – Gaga and Hudson seem…like they’re happening regardless of what I think.
    – Colman needs her film to be released—I see her as a surefire critical favorite if it does.

    [Since “bias” will come up: Colman & Dunst are probably the ones I am most biased towards in the first list, but I’m rooting for Stewart and Thompson in particular and am far more skeptical of Gaga personally. But I cannot discount that Gaga has too many of her stans who may be sufficient, and Stewart has too many detractors of her range and Passing has its naysayers—I’ve listed things based on how I gauge other people responding. Barring Chastain—can’t seem to find a way to see that as a possibility but…anything’s possible!]

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    boredandricho (they/them)
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    #1204377429

    Ariana Debose has a real shot from West Side Story, though. We have yet to see how Zegler acts, and since she was cast in a Stephen Spielberg movie I wouldn’t necessarily count her out and the Academy love Musicals. Most importantly, moving Canterbury Glass to next year could signal that 20th Century is ready to put WSS as their main push. However, as far as the actress goes (either lead or supporting) I think Jodie Comer will be the main priority in acting fields for 20th Century over either Zegler or Debose, depends on where she will be placed McKenzie is severely underestimated here (and understandably so) She’s in a apparently-weird-inaccessible psycho horror-thriller movie and alongside Anya Taylor Joy who seemed to have showier performance than her. Yet we have to consider that she’s playing an obsessed artist here (but her obsession ain’t about her craft apparently) and the Academy LOVES to awards obsessed character who goes through fucked up situation. Natalie Portman was playing an Obsessed artist in Psycho-Thriller/Horror movie and she won the Oscars for it. I have her in my Top 10 and I’m predicting the possibility of category fraud for her a la Lakeith Stanfield for Judas.

    no one from west side story getting in

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    kaziz
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    #1204377451

    no one from west side story getting in

    Why? Genuinely asking. Haven’t gotten an answer for this.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    SN
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    #1204377491

    If The Last Duel disappoints commercially and gets luckwarm reception like All the Money in the World, J-Comer will have the same fate of Michelle Williams.

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    nkb325
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    #1204377573

    If The Last Duel disappoints commercially and gets luckwarm reception like All the Money in the World, J-Comer will have the same fate of Michelle Williams.

    But in that case the WHOLE conversation about that movie was around the whole plummer/spacey drama, and he ended up getting the nomination. No one was really talking about Williams, at least not in the context of the movie (her whole wage-gap thing certainly got headlines but that was much more of an industry conversation than a movie conversation).

    I’m willing to bet that if people like ANYTHING about The Last Duel, it’ll be Comer, and she’ll be the whole conversation around that movie. It’s a movie about rape culture, so if they have any intelligence they’ll make her the face of the movie, make her the one doing all the big interviews rather than having a bunch of men talking about rape. The only way that I think Affleck and Damon could steal the spotlight is if they keep saying stupid stuff but they seem smart enough to know to calm down during awards season.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204377577

    I am coming around to the idea of Comer and Driver getting nominated for this. They both have juicy roles and they look good in the trailer.

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    LA26
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    #1204377606

     I’m willing to bet that if people like ANYTHING about The Last Duel, it’ll be Comer, and she’ll be the whole conversation around that movie.  

    What if Driver gets talked about as well if his performance is really good? I’ll be shocked if Nicole Holofcener doesn’t promote the film, considering she’s not only a co-writer but a producer on the film as well. I don’t know about Ireland, but she said in an interview she was in France during filming there. Also: Jennifer Fox, who was a producer on The Report, also produced TLD, and was pictured on set in France.

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    crabbie
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    #1204377612

    Driver only gets in it Comer gets in. It’s like Big Little Lies pertaining to Kidman and Skarsgard Emmy nominations.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    #1204377648
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    kaziz
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    #1204377670

    I don’t really care that much about West Side Story to be honest (why do we need another one anyway?) But take this comparison: Zegler seems like a Lea Michele-sized talent as a singer, and if Lea Michele’s breakout had been a remake of Funny Girl……….isn’t it perfectly possible she would’ve gotten loads of acclaim? Of course, Zegler may well be a much better actor than Michele as well, but the potential for heart-tugging classics like Somewhere, Maria, America to get audience raves even if they’re just covered really well — I don’t see why it can’t happen. Dreamgirls did it for Jennifer Hudson, the otheraise terrible remake of Les Miz did it for Hathaway. The film as a whole actually doesn’t need to be a hit as long as Zegler (or someone else, like DeBose) get a scene-stealing performance that gets a bajillion YouTube views.

    And the competition’s…weak.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    kaziz
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    #1204377684

    What if Driver gets talked about as well if his performance is really good? I’ll be shocked if Nicole Holofcener doesn’t promote the film, considering she’s not only a co-writer but a producer on the film as well. I don’t know about Ireland, but she said in an interview she was in France during filming there. Also: Jennifer Fox, who was a producer on The Report, also produced TLD, and was pictured on set in France.

    Possible, but Comer still most likely has the showiest role. And honestly I don’t quite know how Driver could be REALLY GOOD in this, since it’s only Comer’s perspective which seems new, I kinda don’t think Driver has much more to his character than rapist & villain

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    LA26
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    #1204377710

    Are the reports of The Tragedy of Macbeth being rejected by Venice credible? I personally don’t believe them considering it’s a Coen film, and is lead by Washington and McDormand.

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    LA26
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    #1204377712

    Possible, but Comer still most likely has the showiest role. And honestly I don’t quite know how Driver could be REALLY GOOD in this, since it’s only Comer’s perspective which seems new, I kinda don’t think Driver has much more to his character than rapist & villain

    True. I agree about Comer having meatier material, but I was wondering whether Driver could get in if the SA category ends up being weak.

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