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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    Milk Money
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    #1204378124

    Should already have been her last year (a lineup of Davis, Han, Kirby, McDormand and Mulligan would have been GOAT)…

    Day already made it the GOAT. 😉

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    George Ehret
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    #1204378127

    Well I appreciate you trying to clarify it, but I don’t see it as Bias against women playing antiheros. They simply weren’t the best choice for their respective year.  Frances was Miles ahead of Margot, Julianne Moore was miles ahead of Rosamund Pike, and with the latest, Frances was ahead of Carey Mulligan. And it also depends on what you deem as bold performances. I think Natalie Portman gave a bold performance for Black Swan and rightfully won her Oscar. I think Monique gave THE boldest performance out of anyone that was mentioned and won her Oscar. You speak of I,Tonya and yet didn’t mention Allison Janeys Oscar win, was that not an anti-hero bold role?

    You thinking Moore and McDormand (both times) were better is simply an opinion. That does not mean there isn’t a bias. You talk about Natalie Portman and Monique, but they were not anti-heroes. Perhaps I shouldn’t use the word “bold”, but you cannot deny that there’s a constant string of morally ambiguous female characters and/or unabashedly feminist performances losing Best Actress (Jill Clayburgh in An Unmarried Woman comes to mind, but I also use that example a lot so)

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204378133

    Considering the pandemic is still raging, none of this year’s contenders are going to make huge box office. Black Widow grossed 343 million so far. I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’ll crack 500 million.

    Black Widow got hurt by Disney+ Release (Its a Premium $30 Access but still) and Bad words are spreading on how terrible the Villain was.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    LA26
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    #1204378137

    Black Widow got hurt by Disney+ Release (Its a Premium $30 Access but still) and Bad words are spreading on how terrible the Villain was.

    Yeah, I forgot to add the part about Disney+.

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204378139

    You thinking Moore and McDormand (both times) were better is simply an opinion. That does not mean there isn’t a bias.

    Maybe AMPAS also thought Moore and McDormand were better and there was no bias, we really don’t know. You’re just speculating that there is bias based on arbitrary data.

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    Music Forever
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    #1204378143

    Scarlett Johansson played a somewhat similar character in Under the Skin. An alien disguised as a woman who manipulates unsuspecting (but sleazy) men with her sexuality & literally destroys them. That was a bold, daring, risky, unconventional, role. Even more so than Carey’s IMO.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204378146

    Maybe AMPAS also thought Moore and McDormand were better and there was no bias, we really don’t know. You’re just speculating that there is bias based on arbitrary data.

    I will not deny that some members genuinely believe that, but I think it’s safe to assume that certain members, specifically male, were turned off by Pike, Robbie, and Mulligan and considered that when voting. While Promising Young Woman did receive five nominations and won Original Screenplay, the screenplay isn’t quite as off-putting to them as the performance is, as weird as that sounds. It was also clear after not even a week after nominations came out that PYW was the frontrunner and would probably win (beating is biggest competitor at WGA which is huge).

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    George Ehret
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    Sep 3rd, 2019
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    #1204378151

    Scarlett Johansson played a somewhat similar character in Under the Skin. An alien disguised as a woman who manipulates unsuspecting (but sleazy) men with her sexuality & literally destroys them. That was a bold, daring, risky, unconventional, role. Even more so than Carey’s IMO.

    That is also a much different type of role from Carey’s. It’s more subtle and subdued. PYW as a film is very bold in the way that it calls out everyone and their grandma for their involvement in rape culture. Under the Skin, from what I recall as it has been a few years since I’ve seen it, isn’t a very political film imo. I also don’t think of that type of movie as being bold (Under the Skin)

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204378154

    I mean I don’t get why both things can’t be true:
    – In my opinion, purely as a matter of personal preference, I didn’t find Mulligan or Pike to be the best performances of the year. I’ve said this before but if anything, I wish PYW’s screenplay had Cassie be even more vicious (the fact that she doesn’t kill anyone in a rape-revenge film is sort of new). I get that people loved it, but I preferred McDormand, Davis and Kirby to Mulligan.
    – BUT the bias does exist. I don’t know if I can cleanly agree that Mulligan lost because of it (people underestimated McDormand—who had the same number of wins with critics groups as Mulligan did—and usually it was on the basis of “she just won” as opposed to about her performance). But, yeah, I think the bias existed because there’s a lot of examples other than Mulligan & Pike. Close and Rowlands are great examples because they’re clearly seen as the best in retrospect.

    FWIW, as it relates to Gaga, I think it’s going to be a combination of performance + narrative + how up the Academy’s alley it is. Which is always the case. To argue that a bias doesn’t exist just doesn’t hold up. All we have to do is point to the entirety of the horror genre lol. Essie Davis in The Babadook anyone? Toni Collette in Hereditary anyone? All the classic giallo films, or the films of Kurosawa—some of the most historically celebrated directors of all time got no acting wins because they made horror films. And not even the final girl of horror films is ever considered as possibly good enough. So, yeah, I have no trouble believing that the bias exists. Maybe Mulligan would’ve won, maybe not. I don’t know. But Theron and Bates were definite anomalies that’s for sure. I will say that there is a difference between an anti-hero and an outright villain, and that does depend often on the strength of the performance. Mulligan is talented enough to get us to sympathize with her plenty—anti-hero. Is Gaga talented enough to do the same? I’d…………say no, because I saw AHS: Hotel (eep) but who knows? Let’s see.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    JGibson
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    Jul 8th, 2012
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    #1204378165

    I will not deny that some members genuinely believe that, but I think it’s safe to assume that certain members, specifically male, were turned off by Pike, Robbie, and Mulligan and considered that when voting. While Promising Young Woman did receive five nominations and won Original Screenplay, the screenplay isn’t quite as off-putting to them as the performance is, as weird as that sounds. It was also clear after not even a week after nominations came out that PYW was the frontrunner and would probably win (beating is biggest competitor at WGA which is huge).

    Maybe voters didnt actively said no to Carey, but yes to Frances (at least 20% + 1 of them). This is a constant understantement of the winning performance when you focus on people being off-put by Carey’s performance rather than simply liking anything else. Perhaps people simply don’t care as much for the movie.
    Nomadland had the bigger campaign from the start and this ofc resulted in its wins, Frances performance was underestimated here from day one. Also PYW won in a category that the former wasnt even nominated.
    All this feels a bunch of disproportional comparisons to justify the resentment of your fave’s loss.

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    Tick Tock
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204378177

    Not really buying the bias arguments. Picking out random examples from decades ago doesn’t prove anything, because for every anti-hero female character that doesn’t win awards, there is also an anti-hero male character that doesn’t. As for the horror argument, even male performances rarely get nominated for horror movies because there is horror bias, not anti-hero female character in a horror bias.

    People are talking about there being a bias against Rosamund Pike’s performance when she got the sole nomination for her movie. How exactly does that work?

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    #1204378179
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    George Ehret
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    #1204378183

    I mean I don’t get why both things can’t be true: – In my opinion, purely as a matter of personal preference, I didn’t find Mulligan or Pike to be the best performances of the year. I’ve said this before but if anything, I wish PYW’s screenplay had Cassie be even more vicious (the fact that she doesn’t kill anyone in a rape-revenge film is sort of new). I get that people loved it, but I preferred McDormand, Davis and Kirby to Mulligan. – BUT the bias does exist. I don’t know if I can cleanly agree that Mulligan lost because of it (people underestimated McDormand—who had the same number of wins with critics groups as Mulligan did—and usually it was on the basis of “she just won” as opposed to about her performance). But, yeah, I think the bias existed because there’s a lot of examples other than Mulligan & Pike. Close and Rowlands are great examples because they’re clearly seen as the best in retrospect. FWIW, as it relates to Gaga, I think it’s going to be a combination of performance + narrative + how up the Academy’s alley it is. Which is always the case. To argue that a bias doesn’t exist just doesn’t hold up. All we have to do is point to the entirety of the horror genre lol. Essie Davis in The Babadook anyone? Toni Collette in Hereditary anyone? All the classic giallo films, or the films of Kurosawa—some of the most historically celebrated directors of all time got no acting wins because they made horror films. And not even the final girl of horror films is ever considered as possibly good enough. So, yeah, I have no trouble believing that the bias exists. Maybe Mulligan would’ve won, maybe not. I don’t know. But Theron and Bates were definite anomalies that’s for sure. I will say that there is a difference between an anti-hero and an outright villain, and that does depend often on the strength of the performance. Mulligan is talented enough to get us to sympathize with her plenty—anti-hero. Is Gaga talented enough to do the same? I’d…………say no, because I saw AHS: Hotel (eep) but who knows? Let’s see.

    This is reasonable. I refuse to continue this conversation, so I’ll just echo what he said here and call it a day.

    Point is, Lady Gaga ain’t winning

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Rachel615
    Joined:
    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204378185

    She portrayed an anti-hero whose intentions are justified but dangerous.

    This is exactly what Mulligan did. She was justified in being angry that medical students, female friends, college administrators and the legal profession had conspired to deny her best friend justice, and engaged in the psychological torture of the Alison Brie and Connie Britton characters, and was prepared to arrange for or inflict physical assault upon Alfred Molina’s and Christopher Lowell’s characters.  She was “justified but dangerous,” and in multiple scenes displayed a rage and quiet fury that I found much more terrifying than the anger exhibited by shouty portrayals offered by lessor actresses in less nuanced performances.

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    kaziz
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    Nov 10th, 2011
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    #1204378197

    As for the horror argument, even male performances rarely get nominated for horror movies because there is horror bias, not anti-hero female character in a horror bias.

    Yeah that’s why I said horror directors didn’t get any nods (for the most part). There’s two separate points being made (I think): one is the film’s genre, the other is the type of role an actress in particular is rewarded for. This is like a HUGE conversation that probably needs 3 PhD dissertations to unpack tbh, but anyway.

    The only other thing I’ll say about Mulligan is that her performance was in an unusually splintered year :/ Toni Collette and Lupita Nyong’o [DARN AUTOCORRECT] (if I remember correctly) basically ran away with critics awards for Hereditary and Us, respectively, whereas Carey was tied with McDormand and there was a pervasive sense that we could see any of the 4 women besides Kirby win.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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