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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    yabixz
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    #1204374202

    Simply based on the trailer, Comer’s role seems so safe. I would hate if she won after Carey not winning… Just goes to show that the Academy won’t reward bold female characters unless you either force them to or unless there’s enough people who have no passion for the alternatives

    Comer’s character was a bold and brave woman who faced death should her husband lose and from a true story.

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    fefface
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    #1204374204

    In comparison to Carey’s it is, but I also haven’t read the book

    Carey not winning for one ‘risky’ performance doesn’t mean that Comer shouldn’t win for hers.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204374214

    Carey not winning for one ‘risky’ performance doesn’t mean that Comer shouldn’t win for hers.

    Sure, but knowing the Academy’s history… it would be disappointing

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204374216

    Carey not winning for one ‘risky’ performance doesn’t mean that Comer shouldn’t win for hers.

    Exactly. These stans are still bitter that their fav lost every single industry award. Mulligan shouldn’t even be in the conversation. This is Comer’s year.

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    fefface
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    #1204374218

    Sure, but knowing the Academy’s history… it would be disappointing

    It wouldn’t. You’ve said yourself you don’t know enough about the story of Comer’s character, so why you’re so determined that she’s less worthy than Mulligan would have been is a touch confusing.

    Like I’m not saying she’s going to, but I’m just baffled by this idea that Mulligan not winning should have anything to do with it, or why the Academy finally waking up to awarding risky performances from female actors would be ‘disappointing’.

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    wolfali
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    #1204374222

    I think The Last Duel will benefit a lot from having a strong rooting factor a bit like Promising Young Woman and Nomadland did due to its subject matter.

    I’m not predicting the film itself to be anywhere as strong a contender as either but Comer’s role looks baity, the trailer seems to suggest she’s the standout of her film and she’s someone who sooner or later is going to land a nomination. She’s one of the buzziest rising stars right now (largely thanks to Killing Eve) and unless the performance is divisive or too subtle, she’s probably a shoo-in for a BAFTA nomination.

    Ridley Scott is hit and miss these days but he’s someone who still garners a certain amount of respect in the industry and with the pedigree The Last Duel has, the film is going to have to be a real flop or dud (like Hillbilly Elegy or The Goldfinch) for Comer to miss imo. Whether she wins or not is a different thing and is something that is too early to discuss.

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204374230

    IMO. Gaga and Gucci has bigger chance to flop (But strangely seems to be the Safest for Gaga Individually), Mainly due to the Writing. Comer and TLD has Holofcener+Damon+Affleck penned the Script. Gaga has a first timer.

     

    I could be wrong, though.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204374232

    I don’t know about Jodie Comer winning in lead actress for a historical epic, those don’t happen very often. Russell Crowe is the last to do it, right?

    But I think she will get nominated considering the field has weakened some over the past week.

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    Igor Alves
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    #1204374240

    Comer’s performance seems very dramatic and traditionally bait in TLD at least. Gaga’s seems so campy and not very oscar-y, I think Jared has the best shot at an acting nom from HoG just because of the physical transformation, also the industry seems to reaaaally love him (I mean, he got traction even for The Little Things).

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    schmids
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    #1204374245

    I don’t know about Jodie Comer winning in lead actress for a historical epic, those don’t happen very often. Russell Crowe is the last to do it, right?  

    And Russell Crowe won for a historical epic directed by…?

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    George Ehret
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    #1204374262

    It wouldn’t. You’ve said yourself you don’t know enough about the story of Comer’s character, so why you’re so determined that she’s less worthy than Mulligan would have been is a touch confusing. Like I’m not saying she’s going to, but I’m just baffled by this idea that Mulligan not winning should have anything to do with it, or why the Academy finally waking up to awarding risky performances from female actors would be ‘disappointing’.

    OK. Fine. I’ll shut up. I just wish risky performances would be rewarded more often in this category. And maybe Comer will be that. I’ll wait for Venice.

    I think The Last Duel will benefit a lot from having a strong rooting factor a bit like Promising Young Woman and Nomadland did due to its subject matter. I’m not predicting the film itself to be anywhere as strong a contender as either but Comer’s role looks baity, the trailer seems to suggest she’s the standout of her film and she’s someone who sooner or later is going to land a nomination. She’s one of the buzziest rising stars right now (largely thanks to Killing Eve) and unless the performance is divisive or too subtle, she’s probably a shoo-in for a BAFTA nomination. Ridley Scott is hit and miss these days but he’s someone who still garners a certain amount of respect in the industry and with the pedigree The Last Duel has, the film is going to have to be a real flop or dud (like Hillbilly Elegy or The Goldfinch) for Comer to miss imo. Whether she wins or not is a different thing and is something that is too early to discuss.

    You make an interesting case. I tend to go ahead and rank predictions based on who’s winning, but Comer has a shot for sure. Maybe I’ll swap her for Chastain (keeping Reinsve in for the odds game)

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    kaziz
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    #1204374264

    Honestly I think neither TLD and HoG are players beyond Comer and Gaga (deservedly or not), we’re just having a little bit of trouble completing our top 10 lists with so many films still unknown (it is just the end of July after all). I think Comer will be great and the movie will probably not be very good. I could be wrong of course. But yeah, Ridley Scott’s medieval dramas haven’t done well at all except Gladiator and he’s made so many.

    HoG is a film with Gaga which kinda makes it a smoke monster out of control. I found Gaga wonderful whilst singing in ASIB and extremely cringey while not, but her detractors counted for nothing when she’s just that famous.

    I would love to see Comer nominated though. For that matter I’d love to see anyone nominated lol, but obviously I want them to be good otherwise I won’t feel this way come January lol (yes, even Gaga! It’s nice to get on bandwagons).

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204374274

    And Russell Crowe won for a historical epic directed by…?

    Ridley Scott, which made almost 500 million at the box office and Crowe had just lost for a critically raved performance in The Insider that many felt he should have won an Oscar for.

    Ridley Scott also made a lot of historical epics between Gladiator and The Last Duel that didn’t win any acting Oscars.

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    wolfali
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    #1204374278

    There were aspects of The Last Duel trailer that looked rather questionable but Comer’s performance looked quite down to earth and with Holofcener co-penning the script I honestly will be shell-shocked if the film is poorly received.

    I don’t know how big a player it will be but in terms of quality I have more confidence in it than House of Gucci (although I don’t think that film will be too poorly received either but I’m more nervous about that one’s reception lol. Critics don’t tend to react well to that type of camp).

    Oscars FYC:
    "THE POWER OF THE DOG" – IN ALL CATEGORIES
    "SPENCER" – In all categories especially Director (Pablo Larrain) and Actress (Kristen Stewart)
    "SHIVA BABY" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "TOGETHER" – Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "LAST NIGHT IN SOHO" – Director (Edgar Wright), S. Actress (Anya Taylor-Joy/Diana Rigg), Cinematography, Costume Design and Production Design
    "CODA" – in all categories

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    schmids
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    #1204374294

    Ridley Scott, which made almost 500 million at the box office and Crowe had just lost for a critically raved performance in The Insider that many felt he should have won an Oscar for. Ridley Scott also made a lot of historical epics between Gladiator and The Last Duel that didn’t win any acting Oscars.

    Note to self: do not make tongue in cheek comments in these threads.

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