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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 3)

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    James Gibson
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    #1204378201

    That is also a much different type of role from Carey’s. It’s more subtle and subdued. PYW as a film is very bold in the way that it calls out everyone and their grandma for their involvement in rape culture. Under the Skin, from what I recall as it has been a few years since I’ve seen it, isn’t a very political film imo. I also don’t think of that type of movie as being bold (Under the Skin)

    If PYW was that bold and shocking it would never be picked by a major distributor and receive as much nominations and wins it got during the season.

    Y’all honestly expect too much from Oscar contenders.

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204378203

    This is exactly what Mulligan did.

    The original discussion was about whether voters are biased towards “bold” Female characters. Which is why Frances’s role & win for Three Billboards were brought into the conversation. McDormand & Mulligan’s portrayals were never compared. But unlike Carey, Frances’s “bold” performance prevailed. So depending on the right circumstances, women with risk taking projects/depictions, can win.

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    kaziz
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    #1204378206

    If PYW was that bold and shocking it would never be picked by a major distributor and receive as much nominations and wins it got during the season.

    Y’all honestly expect too much from Oscar contenders.

    Yeah I do kinda co-sign this lol. I had the misfortune of watching PYW after I had just binge-watched I May Destroy You and without giving any spoilers, it was just really hard not to feel like I was watching a significantly more defanged version of an archetype in film/TV about rape than I got in I May Destroy You (though admittedly, IMDY’s bar is way too damn high in that I genuinely think it’s an astonishingly new thing to add to discourse on assault) and that probably made me harsher on PYW and Mulligan (who I’ve literally only ever loved in films).

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    George Ehret
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    #1204378209

    I think there’s no point in continuing this argument anymore. I simply stated that Gaga wouldn’t win and brought up an example to justify why I think that. It did not need to go down this path. And before you say I perpetuated it, you’re right. I did. So now I’m ending it

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    Tick Tock
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    #1204378213

    Lady Gaga won’t win more for being a pop star and this being just her second major role than for any other reason imo

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    crabbie
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    #1204378216

    Frances role of a mother in 3BB who was abused by her ex husband and losing her daughter to rape is more sympathetic than a college student who loses her friend to rape. The ending of 3BB also paints Frances in a more compassionate portrayal than say Carey’s fate in PYW. Both are bold performances but one clearly is a role that AMPAS can resonate more.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204378222

    This conversation is too complicated and subjective for any 2 people to be totally aligned on it lol. I see the reasoning behind George’s trepidation for Gaga winning though. Ultimately, it may or may not be a factor, but it’s hardly a factor we’re oblivious to. That’s all.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Rachel615
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    #1204378224

    McDormand—who had the same number of wins with critics groups as Mulligan did—

    It definitely doesn’t matter, and both acting performances were extraordinary, but including the Oscar, McDormand won 26 awards while Mulligan won 29. See Next Best Picture’s list:

    Carey Mulligan (29) – AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, CCA, COFCA, DFCS, DFWFCA, GALECA, GFCA, HCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCFCA, MFCA, NBR, NFCS, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA, PCC, PFCS, SCA, SDFCS, SPIRIT, StLFCA, WFCC
    Frances McDormand (26) – AWFJ, BAFTA, BOFCA, CFCA, DFCS, FFCC, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFCA, IFJA, IPA, LFCC, LVFCS, NCFCA, NDFS, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, OSCAR, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, TFCA, UFCA, VFCC, WAFCA

    I think most of us are tired of this argument— both actresses, in fact, all five nominees, would have been worthy winners.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204378226

    The race didnt even start and Gucci is not finished. Theres not enough to back Gaga won’t win with such property cause this is all up to how much the film is promoted and screeners are sent. All narrative, passion, box office, critical reception claims are just tools to justify how much a distributor will work on it, but theyre not definite. It’s all dynamic to the current year so trying to find an exact comparison with previous contenders fail short.

    We just had Frances win her 3rd acting Oscar for a performance everybody called too subtle to win. But he was in the BP frontrunner in a weak year with a split race. No one couldve predicted how that went, so all the trends people try to set in stone here feel too artificial.

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    kaziz
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    #1204378228

    It definitely doesn’t matter, and both acting performances were extraordinary, but including the Oscar, McDormand won 26 awards while Mulligan won 29.

    Lol okay sorry, my bad.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204378230

    Both are bold performances but one clearly is a role that AMPAS can resonate more.

    Maybe voters felt Frances’s role had *actual dramatic depth & a compelling arc that gave her character more emotional dimensions (?).

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    crabbie
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    #1204378232

    I agree I think this conversation derailed into frivolous arguing. I mean Gaga’s character herself is an anti-hero but I highly doubt her character will be bold and taken to the extremes of Pike in Gone Girl for example since the trailer articulates the film’s tone being campy and the humor in the film may make Gaga’s character’s actions into absurdity that really isn’t taken seriously.

    Anyways I don’t see Gaga winning regardless of how her character is portrayed because her performance will not be undeniable and she already has an Oscar from 2 years ago and, yes, I do contend a Best Song Oscar still carries the same weight as any other Oscar. She literally hasn’t done any acting work after ASIB except for HoG which is not a drag on her since she is first and foremost a musician but I think until she has accumulated more acting roles and general good will from the Academy, then she will be able to win a competitive Oscar.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204378234

    We just had Frances win her 3rd acting Oscar for a performance everybody called too subtle to win. But he was in the BP frontrunner in a weak year with a split race. No one couldve predicted how that went, so all the trends people try to set in stone here feel too artificial.

    You’re right, but in that case we’ll all have to pack up and reconvene in about two months because we have nothing to discuss till then lol. Literally everything said until the films are seen is more or less going to be moot.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Rachel615
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    #1204378237

    depending on the right circumstances, women with risk taking projects/depictions, can win.

    On that, we agree, but those circumstances are fairly rare.

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    LA26
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    #1204378242

    Some actresses and musicals would have benefitted from the Golden Globes, but it’s looking more and more likely the event isn’t happening (even after the reforms the HFPA promised). West Side Story and Dear Evan Hansen come to mind, and I think the HFPA would have been all over Gaga in HoG.

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