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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 32)

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    MysticMagix
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    #1204611152

    Not predicting Gaga currently but very tempted to start after seeing Gucci and also seeing an interesting tweet that pointed out how she is essentially the only best actress contender that will have been seen widely without screeners.

    Ok  if we go by being seen. Then Kristen shouldnt even be winning lol. And parallel mothers shouldnt be very much in the conversation.

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    forwardswill
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    #1204611154

    Ok if we go by being seen. Then Kristen shouldnt even be winning lol. And parallel mothers shouldnt be very much in the conversation.

    I didn’t say *only* going by being seen, did I? But visibility is always a factor that can give certain contenders an advantage for the nomination.

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    laslo
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    #1204611162

    I’m inclined to agree. It’s hard to really say definitively but I think Passing is the bigger achievement, possibly the biggest swing of any film this year and that gives it the edge, but then… The Lost Daughter coming out later, so few people have seen it… I dunno, it could go for either of them (definitely think one of them will make BP), but yes I do agree that Passing seems more likely. Thompson has a much better shot at making this field than people think, it’s really very strange to see people continue to deny it. Something people should understand: AMPAS membership is changing soooo much every year and in the past 2 years the fields have shown how much their tastes have changed so… I dunno why that isn’t taken into account more.

    I usually agree with a lot of your opinions but not this time, neither Passing or Thompson will be that high on Netflix’s priority list. A campaign for TLD is already running and it’s VERY strong, more than a month away from the movie’s release Netflix is already sending MANY critics presskits with Colman’s FYC, the supporting cast is being used heavily in Q&A’s during screenings (Dakota Johnson, Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley Peter Sarsgaard and Ed Harris), various magazines have been involved in the movie’s marketing strategy by making articles about it very often (The New Yorker and Variety especially), Maggie Gyllenhaal has the acclaim but most importantly she has industry love that will push her to that Adapted Screenplay nomination (I doubt it will get BP tho) and Olivia Colman also has A LOT of industry love, the british voters will make sure to show her the support for the career best raves she has been receiving. Passing has been released very recently and it’s not being buzzed about at all outside a very small movie circle and Netflix is not doing anything to help it (Even at Gotham where Passing did very well Variety’s headline was “Will Netflix Rule Both Sides of Film and TV With ‘The Lost Daughter’ and ‘Squid Game’?”. So as much as you and a few otherss liked it a lot and want to see it rewarded I think it’s a reach to say that Thompson edges Colman out, she will probably receive a smaller campaign than Jennifer Lawrence. Still, she is a lot better than some potential nominees so I wouldn’t be mad if she landed the nomination at all.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1461878353443442688

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    kallewickans
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    #1204611193

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    PrincessConsuelo
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    #1204611201

    Gaga and Kristen are locks.

    I’m interested to see how Netflix is going to choose. It’s interesting that they’re giving special attention to The Lost Daughter, maybe they’re really going for Colman instead of Thompson.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204611215

    The Lost Daughter would always be Netflix priority for actress. But that doesn’t stop them from getting Tessa (or JLaw) as well. If there’s one studio to succesfully push multiple films in one acting category is them.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1204611217

    Lady Gaga never found the character in House of Gucci. Lmao. I liked the movie more than I thought, however, Driver and Gaga were bland and the least interesting performances of the cast.

    Also, why isn’t Al Pacino top 3 for supporting actor. He was the STANDOUT of the film.

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    Heptapod
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    #1204611220

    After seeing the campaign Netflix is giving The Lost Daughter, I feel comfortable naming Colman as the third lock. Yes, she’s Olivia Colman and awards voters adore her, but having seen the movie, I can also attest to the fact that she totally has the performance to back it up. It’s incredibly subtle, the opposite of her work in The Favourite, and while I do think The Favourite is still her best performance, this is a very very close second.

    FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

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    wolfali
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    #1204611227

    Not only does she have all the things everyone has mentioned in this thread going for her but Colman also is going to be everywhere close to voting due to The Lost Daughter being released late and Landscapers airing across December. I think she’s in.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Olsen
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    Oct 3rd, 2021
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    #1204611229

    Lady Gaga never found the character in House of Gucci. Lmao. I liked the movie more than I thought, however, Driver and Gaga were bland and the least interesting performances of the cast. Also, why isn’t Al Pacino top 3 for supporting actor. He was the STANDOUT of the film.

    Not surprised. But sometimes it’s hard for a Gaga hater to speak the truth that they actually love her.

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    Opium
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    #1204611243

    Stewart, Kidman, and Gaga are very likely to occupy the first 3 slots.

    Tea.

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    Rachel615
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    Sep 20th, 2018
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    #1204611246

    I think that Netflix will get two in for Best Actress, and I think that Colman is the most likely Netflix actress to be nominated, but if Thompson does get nominated, I think she has the best chance of any of the actresses in Netflix movies to pull an upset.

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    #1204611250
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    Lucas
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    #1204611283

    If Licorice Pizza ends up being a top 3 contender for Picture or Director, then Alana is happening. That’ll give her all the visibility she needs. Also i’m predicting critics are going to push for her.

    Also this category has an alarming lack of Best Picture contenders. Yes, Spencer, Gucci, Ricardos, any of those could happen, but barely, unlike LP that’s pretty locked at this point.

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    James Gibson
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    #1204611285

    I think Alana Haim is being underestimated. I’ve read so many reviews and awards analysis pieces about Licorice Pizza and almost all of them say something along the lines of “Alana Haim gives a debut performance for the ages and is a star, but she probably won’t get an Oscar nomination because there’s so many better known actresses in contention”. I understand that reservation, but it’s not like she’s a little known actress in a small or niche film, she’s a little known actress in one of the biggest Best Picture contenders of the year. Voters are going to watch her movie, and if she’s as good as people say I think she has a great shot at a nomination.

    Most people are considering her for the nomination, and if not in the top 10 for the run. Which is great for her prospects right now. Ofc that can rise once the movie releases but we’ll only have more evidence once precursor nominations start.

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