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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 32)

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    Olsen
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    #1204611616

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    Heptapod
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    #1204611660

    Yeah, female-led Picture contenders usually do get into Actress. There have only been five Picture nominees since 2010 with eligible female leads who were snubbed:

    2020/2021 – Han Ye-ri (Minari)
    2019 – n/a
    2018 – n/a
    2017 – Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
    2016 – Amy Adams (Arrival), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
    2015 – Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
    2014 – n/a
    2013 – n/a
    2012 – n/a
    2011 – n/a
    2010 – n/a (technically Julianne Moore but TKAAR got into Actress with Bening)

    The two most recent contenders were overshadowed by male co-stars who did end up being nominated, not an obstacle in Haim’s case because no one is talking about Hoffman’s performance. Theron faced genre bias, also not an obstacle for Haim. Adams also maybe faced genre bias? But her snub feels like an unfortunate fluke more than anything.

    Henson is really the only precedent for a Haim snub, and while Henson was very good and (in my opinion) totally deserving of a nomination, she didn’t attract the same hype Haim has been, and Hidden Figures was not the contender Licorice Pizza will probably be.

    Long story short, Picture contenders with eligible leading actresses will get that nomination more often than not, even if that contender misses key precursors (Ronan, Streep for The Post, Adams for American Hustle, Wallis, Aparicio, Riva, and more all missed SAG).

    FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

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    MysticMagix
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    #1204611680

    Now that is what we call a useless opinion. Did you at least enjoy yourself coming up with those unamusing names?

    hes right . The name is a cringe fest

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    Babylonian
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    #1204611682

    Yeah, female-led Picture contenders usually do get into Actress. There have only been five Picture nominees since 2010 with eligible female leads who were snubbed: 2020/2021 – Han Ye-ri (Minari) 2019 – n/a 2018 – n/a 2017 – Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread) 2016 – Amy Adams (Arrival), Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) 2015 – Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) 2014 – n/a 2013 – n/a 2012 – n/a 2011 – n/a 2010 – n/a (technically Julianne Moore but TKAAR got into Actress with Bening) The two most recent contenders were overshadowed by male co-stars who did end up being nominated, not an obstacle in Haim’s case because no one is talking about Hoffman’s performance. Theron faced genre bias, also not an obstacle for Haim. Adams also maybe faced genre bias? But her snub feels like an unfortunate fluke more than anything. Henson is really the only precedent for a Haim snub, and while Henson was very good and (in my opinion) totally deserving of a nomination, she didn’t attract the same hype Haim has been, and Hidden Figures was not the contender Licorice Pizza will probably be. Long story short, Picture contenders with eligible leading actresses will get that nomination more often than not, even if that contender misses key precursors (Ronan, Streep for The Post, Adams for American Hustle, Wallis, Aparicio, Riva, and more all missed SAG).

    I mean you posted examples from this year’s Oscars as well as PTA’s last film. Not to mention snubs by big name actresses like Amy Adams. How is this supposed to make me more convinced that Alana is a lock? I just don’t see it.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    laslo
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    #1204611684

    hes right . The name is a cringe fest

    Sure MysticMagix!

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    LA26
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    #1204611690

    Variety’s Tim Gray now added Penelope Cruz to #1. He already had Parallel Mothers for BP.

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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    LA26
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    #1204611697

    Whilst I wouldn’t call Haim a lock there really should be no reason for Licorice Pizza to get shut out in acting if it’s win competitive for Best Picture. Even Roma got two unknown/less well known actresses nominated.

    And the Academy has a history of nominating  newcomers/“fresh faces”

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    wolfali
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    #1204611702

    Variety’s Tim Gray now added Penelope Cruz to #1. He already had Parallel Mothers for BP.

    Cruz is a strong contender to get nominated but Tim Gray is a crazy source lol. He had Mulligan getting snubbed for Pfeiffer until the very end last season and predicted some random actor from a film called Falling for most of last season.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Babylonian
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    #1204611707

    If any contender this year runs the risk of a Best Picture nomination without an accompanying Best Actress nomination it is Alana. I think Frances McDormand and Tessa Thompson are far more underestimated than Alana based on this thread.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Heptapod
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    #1204611716

    If any contender this year runs the risk of a Best Picture nomination without an accompanying Best Actress nomination it is Alana.

    Haim will be getting in before Rooney Mara or Jennifer Lawrence.

    FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)

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    #1204611722
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    Babylonian
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    #1204611724

    Haim will be getting in before Rooney Mara or Jennifer Lawrence.

    Eh, maybe. I think Rooney might be underestimated. The problem is that their roles seem too slight to be contenders. Alana is Licorice Pizza, but it feels like it is mostly a PTA vehicle rather than a Best Actress vehicle.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    #1204611729
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Babylonian
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    #1204611733

    Why is Jessica Chastain #2 still? Her movie had mixed reviews, bombed at the box office, and doesn’t seem to be an all around contender like House of Gucci may be. Gaga should replace her at #2 or #3 behind Nicole. Olivia Colman is going to SURGE in January.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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