November 29, 2021 at 6:55 am #1204612218
Don’t underestimate SPC, they’re going to get Penelope in. Plus I can’t see the acting branch not voting for her; if you have seen the movie, you know. She gives a fantastic, layered performance that will get enough #1/#2 votes. I think she’s definitely in the top 4 at the moment with Kristen, Nicole and Olivia. If Licorice Pizza is really strong and resonates, Alana is the 5th, end of.November 29, 2021 at 6:58 am #1204612232
I don’t think their stardom matters much. Penelope is bigger but both are known enough nowadays and both might have strong campaigns for their beloved movies. Tbh in my predictions they’re in consideration for a 5th slot. 1. Stewart 2. Kidman 3. Gaga 4. Colman 5. Cruz/Thompson
5. Halle /Tessa
My Lineup hasn’t change since JulyNovember 29, 2021 at 7:02 am #1204612241This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 29, 2021 at 7:03 am #1204612245
Neither does Tessa outside of Marvel movies. Cruz remains much bigger especially in Europe, whose voters are more and more significant at Oscars.
Sorry but Penélope Cruz is one of the most recognisable movie stars out there. Regardless if she had recent hits or not. She’s definitely far bigger than Tessa Thompson.
Hear! hear! 💯November 29, 2021 at 7:05 am #1204612253
Once again, people using political talking points to compare apples and oranges. So tiresome.
Every contender’s first biggest challenge is internal competition aka studio priority campaigning.
So if you are lucky to be the studio’s only contender in a particular category, than you are going to have your studio’s full attention, unlike your outside challengers coming from the same studio and fighting for priority status among themselves.
In this particular case, Cruz is Sony’s only Actress push, so she will have their full support. However, that is not the case on Netflix side, where a number of actresses are fighting for the campaign priority. They are Colman, Thompson, Berry and Lawrence from what I gathered. Lets see their strengths and weaknesses:
Colman’s movie could garner more than her nomination, for example Script (since Maggie Gyllenhaal won the Script at Venice), which gives her an advantage. Studios bet on movies with multiple nominations more.
Likewise, Thompson movie could get a Supporting Actress nod for Negga, but this is trickier than Actress + Script if Supporting is considered the MVP and thus upstages the lead. Don’t know if that’s the case, just saying that the combo could go either way.
Then we have Berry whose movie is stupid popular on streaming, a true global hit, and she has a classic transformation role.
And finally there’s Lawrence in a movie that’s expected to be an across the board contender and such movies tend to coattail “weaker” (critically less highlighted) members of the cast.
No studio is going to get everyone in. I say two tops, three if competition has really weak contenders.
Moreover, there’s also recency bias (works in favor of Gaga and Haim on MGM side, but against Hudson), name checking (bigger name gets the push or votes simply because more people know them, and many times don’t even have to campaign much), etc that could influence the outcome.
But point being, studio support is make it or break it. McDormand didn’t have to campaign much herself when she had the studio do it for her and her movie. So that’s really how nominations happen and why some studios are famous for getting people in. So before you predict 3-4 nominees from Netflix in any given category, remember that Searchlight, Focus, WB, etc are great at getting people in too and will have nominees this time around as well.November 29, 2021 at 7:10 am #1204612263
Kristen, Nicole and Olivia seem like the only sure things for this category.
I don’t see an all white line up, so Tessa will most likely get in too. She has the performance, she has the reviews and her co-star is getting nom with chances to win it, so that helps too.
Last spot for me is between Penelope (Volpi, Almodovar movie, previous Oscar winner with a great performance) and Alana (Best review movie of all, getting lots of praise).
Gaga will be hurt by her film reviews. It’s very divisive and she will need a lot of passion votes to get her in. I don’t see her in unless she gets in all precursors.
7) GagaNovember 29, 2021 at 7:10 am #1204612265
Despite not having UNIVERSAL acclaimed films, both Halle and Gaga have movies that are smashing the Box Office and streaming. Bruised is still the #1 movie (#2 overall). Both ladies have received much praise for their performances too.November 29, 2021 at 7:28 am #1204612305This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 29, 2021 at 7:40 am #1204612316This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.November 29, 2021 at 7:48 am #1204612325
despite the overall’s movie’s mixed reception, Gaga’s praised performance, the GP’s overall positive reception, and a huge BO debut smash, the biggest for an adult drama in Covid-19, & just her presence that she brings in the awards conversation has her still going strong in the conversationNovember 29, 2021 at 7:52 am #1204612332This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Not now
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