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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 39)

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    Montage70
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    #1204639510

    Cant wait to come in here the day after nomination, when Gaga is out

    lol

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    wattsgold
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    #1204639517

    I don’t need your validation. I’m saying it in general. i even included bruised and being with ricardos you can’t deny that the house of gucci isn’t a masterpiece. Get over it.

    If anything you have defended Bruised with sound arguments and have recognized its limitations awards-wise yourself… unlike some who desperately cling to actresses who won’t win the Oscar because they think fandom=wins

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    Anthagiox
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    #1204639526

    I suspect this will change once Gaga fails to win any (or many) of the regionals in favour of Stewart or even Colman. Unless Gaga does better than expected with regionals or wins another of the trifecta then her next chance to snatch momentum will be a GG win. Which is doubtful and also completely irrelevant this year. No one will pay attention to the globes.

    Only one person can win any of the regionals (barring a tie) so this logic would apply to everyone? As long as there are nominations for someone, their momentum will grow.

    Cant wait to come in here the day after nomination, when Gaga is out lol

    You definitely do not lead a happy, fulfilling life. That’s sad.

    Gaga could miss, it’s totally possible in a year this competitive. You have Kristen and Colman who are pretty much guaranteed, Haim and Zegler who are gonna have visibility in strong Best Picture contenders, as well as Chastain and and Kidman playing baity as fuck roles, with Kidman’s film coming out very late in the year.

    OK, but Gaga is part of the reason it’s so competitive this year. Gaga isn’t some random outlier that has to sneak in, she’s an established Oscar nominee and winner. Gaga is why it’s going to be harder for people like Haim and Zegler to get in, not the other way around.

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    #1204639528
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    The Northman
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    #1204639530

    I am kinda conflicted on Cruz, I think she is not yet out of contention, but we need a sign she is still in.

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    xohours
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    #1204639540

    atp regardless of whether it goes into rotten or not, Gaga’s already established her standout performance w the critics & judging from the private screeners and reactions seen, that she has industry rally as well

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    M
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    #1204639543

    As usual people are doing the most. Mind you Rami Malek won the Oscar few years ago from a movie with a similar RT score to HoG and lower Metacritic score to HoG. Why? Because his film had massive commercial success and he was seen as the best thing in the movie.

    Not saying Gaga will win. I have Kristen as the frontrunner. But claiming that it’s impossible for her to win because of the RT score when she has the biggest movie in contention and a NYFCC win (a trifecta win) is far too premature.

    What’s gonna determine her odds now are not the RT score, but the precursors. Who they give the wins to…

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    LA26
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    #1204639548

    LP is clearly MGM’s big push for BP, BD and Original Screenplay so they’re going to push hard for Haim. She’s a bigger internal threat to Gaga than Hudson. I wonder if Haim will end up winning BA at LAFCA.

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    M
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    #1204639551

    In other news Peter Travers of ABC moved Gaga to #1 after the recent developments.

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    M
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    #1204639556

    I wonder if Haim will end up winning BA at LAFCA.

    Well yeah she needs a trifecta win to establish herself I think, considering she’s been hit and miss and with the critics in terms of nominations so far. And Zegler is already ahead of her with that NBR win.

    If she wins LAFCA it’ll be a huge boost for her. But I think it’s going to Kristen.

    It’s so interesting how quickly things shift, just one week ago, Haim was considered the most likely to get that “newcomer” slot this year if she gets nominated. Then Zegler happened and her odds were quickly overtaken. Maybe things can shift again in Haim’s favor.

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    Babylonian
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    #1204639558

    In other news Peter Travers of ABC moved Gaga to #1 after the recent developments.

    Is there a reason so many experts still have Cruz in? Am I missing something here?

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    James Gibson
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    #1204639560

    HoG’s reception and success are already established with the general public and the industry. The consensus is Gaga as a standout and candidate for BA. Do y’all think she’ll suddenly miss cause the film dropped one point to 59%?

    MGM already centered a whole campaign around Gaga, and after the NYFCC win this won’t. If LP overperforms and Haim coattails it’s quite possible both of them make in. Both films are bankable for them.

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    Instant
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    #1204639564

    I suspect this will change once Gaga fails to win any (or many) of the regionals in favour of Stewart or even Colman. Unless Gaga does better than expected with regionals or wins another of the trifecta then her next chance to snatch momentum will be a GG win. Which is doubtful and also completely irrelevant this year. No one will pay attention to the globes.

    How did it go for Portman in Jackie who was winning among regionals a lot?

    Gaga won NYFCC, which makes her a strong contender for NSFC top 3.

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    Michaël Fisher
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    #1204639570

    As usual people are doing the most. Mind you Rami Malek won the Oscar few years ago from a movie with a similar RT score to HoG and lower Metacritic score to HoG. Why? Because his film had massive commercial success and he was seen as the best thing in the movie. Not saying Gaga will win. I have Kristen as the frontrunner. But claiming that it’s impossible for her to win because of the RT score when she has the biggest movie in contention and a NYFCC win (a trifecta win) is far too premature. What’s gonna determine her odds now are not the RT score, but the precursors. Who they give the wins to…

    This is the same argument that I keep hearing, but I don’t see how Gucci and Bohemian Rhapsody are comparable since the latter had grossed almost $1 billion (I am aware that it was before the pandemic, but the difference is still huge). HOG is clearly a box office hit, but it’s not that big. I feel like it’s neither critically acclaimed nor popular enough to get any recognition at the Oscars.

     

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    James Gibson
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    #1204639574

    Is there a reason so many experts still have Cruz in? Am I missing something here?

    She’s respected name in a hugely acclaimed performance that is being distributed by Sony Pictures Classics. They are very common to skip critics season and focus screeners to industry awards giving a ressurgence later in the season (best example, The Father last year). It usually pays off as they are mostly able to get at least one acting nomination from their films. Cruz is in contention.

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