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She’s not getting in over Gaga unless a miracle occurs.
Eh I don’t think Chastain is as done as people say, which nominations has she missed so far? She’s been getting in almost everywhere. People don’t seem to care that her movie was mediocre, since the performance was so baity.
LP is clearly MGM’s big push for BP, BD and Original Screenplay so they’re going to push hard for Haim. She’s a bigger internal threat to Gaga than Hudson. I wonder if Haim will end up winning BA at LAFCA.
MGM is going to push the one whose movie brought the most money. Don’t forget that Licorice Pizza has a 40m budget (compared to HOG’s 75m), will struggle to go past 20m domestically and won’t earn shit WW
Is there a reason so many experts still have Cruz in? Am I missing something here?
I was reading a Vanity Fair article yesterday and they were saying the following:
Canfield: I agree about Colman, someone we should never bet against. The film’s dominance at the Gotham Awards—winning four awards each decided by separate juries—indicates there’s enough support around it. By the time The Lost Daughter is released on Netflix—before Oscar voting begins—we’ll have exhausted entire buzz cycles for the likes of Kidman, Gaga, and on. That only helps Colman.
It probably helps Penélope Cruz too. In a career best turn, she owns every frame of the late-December release Parallel Mothers, whose director, Pedro Almodóvar, is pretty good about getting his actors nominations. (Just ask Pain and Glory’s Antonio Banderas.) The same can be said for the film’s distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, which takes a kind of silent-assassin approach to campaigning: You never see them coming, but they know exactly what they’re doing. (To everyone who was surprised about The Father winding up as one of last season’s biggest players, those inside the company weren’t.) The crowding of the category is the main thing working against Cruz, and honestly, that may be enough of a hindrance, since the film is smaller, and she’s not, well, Olivia Colman. But I suspect she’s more in the thick of things than perceptions would indicate right now.
And Mareng Jazz Tangcay excluding Kristen is a—nvm
Everything is relative. Bohemian Rhapsody at the time was doing double the numbers of ASIB for example.
HoG similarly is doing double triple the numbers of its closest competitors.
And it’s that kind of overperformance that gives the edge. It doesn’t need to do 1B$ at a time when not even marvels can do that.
Sony is backing Parallel Mothers-which releases in the US on December 24-and they were behind the campaign for Pain and Glory. Antonio Banderas got an Oscar nomination for it. I wouldn’t count Penelope out yet.
I think Penelope Cruz is getting in
Anticipate "Hold My hand".
Lady Gaga is a genius
I was reading a Vanity Fair article yesterday and they were saying the following:
Canfield: I agree about Colman, someone we should never bet against. The film’s dominance at the Gotham Awards—winning four awards each decided by separate juries—indicates there’s enough support around it. By the time The Lost Daughter is released on Netflix—before Oscar voting begins—we’ll have exhausted entire buzz cycles for the likes of Kidman, Gaga, and on. That only helps Colman.
It probably helps Penélope Cruz too. In a career best turn, she owns every frame of the late-December release Parallel Mothers, whose director, Pedro Almodóvar, is pretty good about getting his actors nominations. (Just ask Pain and Glory’s Antonio Banderas.) The same can be said for the film’s distributor, Sony Pictures Classics, which takes a kind of silent-assassin approach to campaigning: You never see them coming, but they know exactly what they’re doing. (To everyone who was surprised about The Father winding up as one of last season’s biggest players, those inside the company weren’t.) The crowding of the category is the main thing working against Cruz, and honestly, that may be enough of a hindrance, since the film is smaller, and she’s not, well, Olivia Colman. But I suspect she’s more in the thick of things than perceptions would indicate right now.
Could you link this article? Cause there’s only hot tea in this section.
People are getting insane about Gaga. She’s getting in. She’s won and been nominated for multiple critic awards already. She has received raves from critics and audience alike. She is also the most buzzed about Best Actress contender to general audiences because she is the most known and House of Gucci had an immense amount of buzz. In addition, it has it’s box office success. There really isn’t much going against Gaga besides the movies own mediocre reviews, but seeing as many other contenders have similar mediocre reviews I don’t really thing that is going to hurt her. Gaga, Stewart, Colman are largely in. Probably Kidman is too but after the reviews I think if audiences don’t decently take to the film then I think she is at risk of being left off. Like if the film is released and it sort of has little buzz then that would worry me, but I’m not expecting that. Then one of either Haim or Ziegler depending on which film is stronger in Best Picture. I think this is a place where we can see what could be winning Best Picture.
And Mareng Jazz Tangcay excluding Kristen is a—nvm
That’s one bold move. But imagine Stewart missing. Just imagine… Lol
Anticipate "Hold My hand".
Lady Gaga is a genius
How did it go for Portman in Jackie who was winning among regionals a lot? Gaga won NYFCC, which makes her a strong contender for NSFC top 3.
Portman didn’t sweep the regionals and her main competition was the standout in a juggernaut BP frontrunner.
And Mareng Jazz Tangcay excluding Kristen is a—nvm
Her transparent Gaga stanning and attempts to undermine the frontrunner in her favour is genuinely embarrassing. Is she paid for this? She shouldn’t be. It is worse than Sasha.
I think Nicole will get in. Reviews have generally been very positive for her performance, and she’s playing a beloved icon. Imagine if she went all the way and got the Oscar.
This is the same argument that I keep hearing, but I don’t see how Gucci and Bohemian Rhapsody are comparable since the latter had grossed almost $1 billion (I am aware that it was before the pandemic, but the difference is still huge). HOG is clearly a box office hit, but it’s not that big. I feel like it’s neither critically acclaimed nor popular enough to get any recognition at the Oscars.
I don’t think anyone is under the impression the movie itself is getting any recognition, just that Gaga is. Gaga is big enough and acclaimed enough to get noticed.
And Mareng Jazz Tangcay excluding Kristen is a—nvm
She’s very much a Little Monster. 😭
Her transparent Gaga stanning and attempts to undermine the frontrunner in her favour is genuinely embarrassing. Is she paid for this? She shouldn’t be. It is worse than Sasha.
She’s so high for HoG she had Salma Hayek in for SA and Adam Driver for BA (she’s since removed them both from her predictions).
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