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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 39)

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    Stefania
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    #1204642217

    Lol right! I can understand maybe having her at like 6-7 rn, but 11? Also I just will be shocked if Jessica misses. I mean I wasn’t too impressed by her performance until the last 20 minutes of the film, but her role just seems too bait-y to miss.

    She’s 7-8 maximum for me (depending on how you feel about Cruz). I think she might get in at SAG and miss the Oscar nomination.

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    M
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    #1204642224

    So far, haven’t counted honorary awards and awards where not all contenders could compete:

    Kristen Stewart: WAFCA, AFCC, Satellite, DFCS, HCA, AWFJ (2 wins 6 noms)
    Lady Gaga: NYFCC, WAFCA, Satellite, HCA, AWFJ (1 win, 5 noms)
    Olivia Colman: Satellite, WAFCA, AWFJ (3 noms)
    Nicole Kidman: Satellite, WAFCA, DFCS, HCA (4 noms)
    Jessica Chastain: DFCS, Satellite,  AWFJ, HCA ( 1 win, 4 noms)
    Alana Haim: AFCC, Satellite, DFCS (1 win, 3 noms)
    Rachel Zegler:  NBR (1 win)
    Tessa Thompson: WAFCA, AWFJ (2 noms)
    Penelope Cruz:  Satellite (1 nom)
    Jennifer Hudson: Satellite, DFCS (2 noms)

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    The Northman
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    #1204642240

    So far, haven’t counted honorary awards and awards where not all contenders could compete: Kristen Stewart: WAFCA, AFCC, Satellite, DFCS, HCA, AWFJ (2 wins 6 noms) Lady Gaga: NYFCC, WAFCA, Satellite, HCA, AWFJ (1 win, 5 noms) Olivia Colman: Satellite, WAFCA, AWFJ (3 noms) Nicole Kidman: Satellite, WAFCA, DFCS, HCA (4 noms) Jessica Chastain: DFCS, Satellite, AWFJ, HCA ( 1 win, 4 noms) Alana Haim: AFCC, Satellite, DFCS (1 win, 3 noms) Rachel Zegler: NBR (1 win) Tessa Thompson: WAFCA, AWFJ (2 noms) Penelope Cruz: Satellite (1 nom) Jennifer Hudson: Satellite, DFCS (2 noms)

    A small note, Alana, Rachel and Emilia are recognised in many in breakthrough or youth categories also. For example Zegler has made the list of AWFJ and WAFCA, but not in lead actress.

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    xohours
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    #1204642244

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    M
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    #1204642250

    A small note, Alana, Rachel and Emilia are recognised in many in breakthrough or youth categories also. For example Zegler has made the list of AWFJ and WAFCA, but not in lead actress.

    Yes, but as I said I only counted categories where all contenders could compete to make sure it’s an accurate assessment of how these contenders would fare against each other in the Oscar’s Best Actress race.

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    Villeneuve
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    #1204642336

    Lol right! I can understand maybe having her at like 6-7 rn, but 11? Also I just will be shocked if Jessica misses. I mean I wasn’t too impressed by her performance until the last 20 minutes of the film, but her role just seems too bait-y to miss.

    When her crazy ass Tammy Faye was singing GLORY GLORY HALLELUUUUUUUJAH, thats when i was like: 🤯🤯🤯, her expressions and mannerisms! She killed it

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    SaulAtreides
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    #1204642340

    Yes, but as I said I only counted categories where all contenders could compete to make sure it’s an accurate assessment of how these contenders would fare against each other in the Oscar’s Best Actress race.

    That’s great, I have the same philosophy when counting noms/wins.

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    puck05
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    Sep 21st, 2019
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    #1204642361

    The only times when Best Actress lineup didn’t have anyone from AFI winners were 2005 and 2014 which none of the 2014 winners had female leads. This makes Emilia Jones, Alana Haim and Frances McDormand strong contenders.

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    crabbie
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    #1204642373

    McDormand is strengthening her position by the day. I have her in 6th after Zegler.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    kaziz
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    #1204642410

    tessa

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kamila
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    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1204642414

    Seems like the reasons to keep Chastain out of the running are making less sense. The advantage of Tammy Faye coming out earlier is that when the late arrivals underdelivered, it makes her performance look stronger.

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    kbc
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    #1204642418

    Michael Musto (one of my three longtime bellwethers) currently has Cruz leading the category, followed by Colman, Stewart, Chastain and Kidman.

    In a jammed category that’s shaping up to be one decided by thin margins in the voting, Musto’s outcome is as likely as any – though he simultaneously is not forecasting Parallel Mothers to appear in any other category, which seems implausible.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Eve Harrington
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    #1204642473

    Alliance of Women Film Journalists Awards Best Actress: Jessica Chastain – “The Eyes Of Tammy Faye” Olivia Colman – “The Lost Daughter” Lady Gaga – “House Of Gucci” Kristen Stewart – “Spencer” Tessa Thompson – “Passing” https://variety.com/2021/awards/awards/power-of-the-dog-alliance-of-women-film-journalists-nominations-1235130691/

    Would love this as the final lineup, honestly.

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    QueenSansa
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    #1204642475

    Michael Musto (one of my three longtime bellwethers) currently has Cruz leading the category, followed by Colman, Stewart, Chastain and Kidman. In a jammed category that’s shaping up to be one decided by thin margins in the voting, Musto’s outcome is as likely as any – though he simultaneously is not forecasting Parallel Mothers to appear in any other category, which seems implausible.

    Cruz isn’t winning lol.

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    kamila
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    #1204642477

    Michael Musto (one of my three longtime bellwethers) currently has Cruz leading the category, followed by Colman, Stewart, Chastain and Kidman. In a jammed category that’s shaping up to be one decided by thin margins in the voting, Musto’s outcome is as likely as any – though he simultaneously is not forecasting Parallel Mothers to appear in any other category, which seems implausible.

    It worked for Marion Cotillard. I don’t see Cruz leading the category but in this field her chances aren’t bad to get in. She has a name and seemingly some supporters.

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