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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 39)

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    TheHanyo
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    #1204638786

    Exactly, both have methodological flaws. A reliability test could be applied to both methods or conduct exit surveys that are more reliable.

    A CinemaScore is literally an exit survey at the theaters. HoG got a B+, which lines up with its RT verified score. The end.

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    M
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    #1204638794

    Not only did HoG score B+ with Cinemascore but also 82% positive with Comscore exit polls too (around 70% of the respondents were over the age of 30, so yeah not the typical little monsters profile)

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    rpd00
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    #1204638815

    A CinemaScore is literally an exit survey at the theaters. HoG got a B+, which lines up with its RT verified score. The end.

    Good for them! If they would publish the details of the methodology it would be better. But my comment was focused around the possible bias in RT from another movie.

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    Opium
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    #1204638820

    Users in the ‘Spencer’ thread of AW, stans and not haters, claimed that when they went to see the movie several people walked out from the cinema, people I know started to watch it now that is available online and after half hour they quit.

    There’s no any conspiracy against Stewart, it’s not that difficult to understand why the general audience is not into this kind of movie, especially when there’s ‘The Crown’ who is a massive hit with the Royals subject, a lot of people expected to be a similar product, but it isn’t, it’s an arthouse movie that is obviously not for everyone, just like ‘Jackie’.

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    rpd00
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    #1204638828

    Users in the ‘Spencer’ thread of AW, stans and not haters, claimed that when they went to see the movie several people walked out from the cinema, people I know started to watch it now that is available online and after half hour they quit. There’s no any conspiracy against Stewart, it’s not that difficult to understand why the general audience is not into this kind of movie, especially when there’s ‘The Crown’ who is a massive hit with the Royals subject, a lot of people expected to be a similar product, but it isn’t, it’s an arthouse movie that is obviously not for everyone, just like ‘Jackie’.

     

    I do not believe there is a conspiracy. To assert something like that I would need data and Spencer’s public data is ambiguous.
    Other than that, I consider its award possibilities to be solid according to expert opinion. So if the quantitative part of the problem is not clear, the qualitative part is.

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    Montage70
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    #1204638839

    Gaga is out, fanboys

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    TheHanyo
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    #1204638843

    Good for them! If they would publish the details of the methodology it would be better. But my comment was focused around the possible bias in RT from another movie.

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    M
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    #1204638847

    Vulture new predictions (december 3rd):
    https://www.vulture.com/2021/12/oscar-predictions-west-side-story-and-nightmare-alley.html

    UP Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
    Zegler has been waiting an awful long time to make her film debut, but the delay was worth it: She only had to wait three more days for her first Best Actress award, courtesy of the NBR. As Sondheim might say, it’s alarming how charming she is; Zegler sells her romance with Ansel Elgort as if her entire life depended on it. (Plus, unlike Natalie Wood, she has the benefit of doing her own singing and actually being Latina.) Longtime readers of this column know how much Oscar loves an ingenue, and I think Zegler just joined Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman as this race’s three locks.

    UP Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    There are a few different movies inside House of Gucci, but Gaga is in the best one: a tragedy about a woman who turns her husband into the man of her dreams, only to find this new man no longer wants her. By naming her Best Actress, the NYFCC planted a flag and said yes, this is an awards performance. And thank God. Oscars season is more fun when Gaga’s in it.

    Predictions (alphabetical):
    1. Olivia Colman
    2. Lady Gaga
    3. Nicole Kidman
    4. Kristen Stewart
    5. Rachel Zegler

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    Babylonian
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    Aug 16th, 2021
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    #1204638860

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye should’ve skipped the festivals and just released around Christmas as a late breaker. It probably would’ve done better at the box office and Chastain would be better positioned. Releasing the movie so early was a huge mistake, and Respect is probably a shutout as well because of this.

    FYC:

    Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

    Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

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    Eve Harrington
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    Nov 11th, 2021
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    #1204638883

    Vulture new predictions (december 3rd): https://www.vulture.com/2021/12/oscar-predictions-west-side-story-and-nightmare-alley.html UP Rachel Zegler, West Side Story Zegler has been waiting an awful long time to make her film debut, but the delay was worth it: She only had to wait three more days for her first Best Actress award, courtesy of the NBR. As Sondheim might say, it’s alarming how charming she is; Zegler sells her romance with Ansel Elgort as if her entire life depended on it. (Plus, unlike Natalie Wood, she has the benefit of doing her own singing and actually being Latina.) Longtime readers of this column know how much Oscar loves an ingenue, and I think Zegler just joined Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman as this race’s three locks. UP Lady Gaga, House of Gucci There are a few different movies inside House of Gucci, but Gaga is in the best one: a tragedy about a woman who turns her husband into the man of her dreams, only to find this new man no longer wants her. By naming her Best Actress, the NYFCC planted a flag and said yes, this is an awards performance. And thank God. Oscars season is more fun when Gaga’s in it. Predictions (alphabetical): 1. Olivia Colman 2. Lady Gaga 3. Nicole Kidman 4. Kristen Stewart 5. Rachel Zegler

    I really wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the lineup.

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    Anthagiox
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    Sep 28th, 2021
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    #1204638885

    Vulture new predictions (december 3rd): https://www.vulture.com/2021/12/oscar-predictions-west-side-story-and-nightmare-alley.html UP Rachel Zegler, West Side Story Zegler has been waiting an awful long time to make her film debut, but the delay was worth it: She only had to wait three more days for her first Best Actress award, courtesy of the NBR. As Sondheim might say, it’s alarming how charming she is; Zegler sells her romance with Ansel Elgort as if her entire life depended on it. (Plus, unlike Natalie Wood, she has the benefit of doing her own singing and actually being Latina.) Longtime readers of this column know how much Oscar loves an ingenue, and I think Zegler just joined Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman as this race’s three locks. UP Lady Gaga, House of Gucci There are a few different movies inside House of Gucci, but Gaga is in the best one: a tragedy about a woman who turns her husband into the man of her dreams, only to find this new man no longer wants her. By naming her Best Actress, the NYFCC planted a flag and said yes, this is an awards performance. And thank God. Oscars season is more fun when Gaga’s in it. Predictions (alphabetical): 1. Olivia Colman 2. Lady Gaga 3. Nicole Kidman 4. Kristen Stewart 5. Rachel Zegler

    Gaga is in, haters.

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    M
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    #1204638916

    I really wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the lineup.

    Yeah I think Rachel is becoming more and more likely. I mean the way NBR delayed the announcement just so that she could become eligible. Seems like they had a lot of faith in her performance.

    I wonder where she ended up in the NYFCC probably top 5 too.

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    kallewickans
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    Jul 27th, 2021
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    #1204638947

    The Power of Dog got half the viewership of Bruised in the first week… and it’s supposed to be a Top award contender… no wonder Netflix signed that deal with Berry, she got millions to watch her indie film.

     

    Viewership is important to Netflix. A film might be No1. But the numbers can be abysmal. This is another text book example that film experience is subjective and critics doesn’t always have the same taste as the general public.

     

    The case with Bruised ,Being with the ricardos and the eyes of tammy faye  and house of gucci.

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    #1204638994
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    jamon__serrano
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    #1204638998

    Spencer is delicious. Not everyone is going to like it (especially because its core themes are SO repetitive), but it’s such a trip. Kristen is my #1 after Gaga.

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