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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 39)

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    FTomoson
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    #1204639226

    Why are people so focused on Rotten Tomatoes? Metacritic is a better review aggregator to measure critical reception of prestige films. RT is better for popcorn flicks.

    The average score below the percentage on RT is basically how MC works.

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    Ben Affleck Fan
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    #1204639236

    Best Actress Contenders Pros and Cons

    1.Kristen Stewart

    Pros:
    1. She is playing a royal
    2. Her portrayal of Diana got universal praise
    3. She is a safe option for voters that don’t want to think too much, when awarding the Best Actress Oscar

    Cons:
    1. Middle audience score, not sure how that reflects in the end to voters
    2. No previous Oscar nominations
    3. Difficulty to win the BAFTA with Olivia in the mix

    2. Olivia Colman

    Pros:
    1. Already won Gotham and looks like a threat for the BAFTA, the importance of the British block secures wins
    2. Acclaimed film, where she shines according to reviews so far
    3. Recent Oscar Winner, with still lots of voters passion seen lately at the Emmys and the Gothams

    Cons:

    1. Limited release that hasn’t been widely seen at this point
    2. Unlike The Favourite,  she is not in a BP contender propably.
    3. Stiff competition for the BAFTA win.

    3. Nicole Kidman

    Pros:
    1. Baity biopic role of beloved Hollywood icon.
    2. Focused campaigning with AMPAs and Guilds
    3. Comeback narrative following her awards sweep with Big Little Lies in Emmys, Globes and SAG.

    Cons:
    1. Mixed movie that recieved some backlash for her resemblance to Lucille Ball
    2. Streaming only release for Dec.21st that could help or make the project fall off from public perception
    3. Lucille Ball is not that known to British block, possible hurdle to enter BAFTAs line-up

    4. Lady Gaga

    Pros:
    1. Mostly  acclaimed stand-out performance in the House of Gucci  + NYFCC win
    2. Her film has connected with the public
    3. Big studio campaign from MGM

    Cons:
    1. Mixed movie that sits on 60% RT
    2. Patrizia Reggiani is not that known figure to Hollywood audience.
    3. Difficulty to enter and win the BAFTA with Stewart and Colman in the mix

    5. Alana  Haim and Rachel Zegler (apply to both)

    Pros:
    1. Best Picture Contender vehicle
    2. She got praise for her part and already won NBR Actress/Breakthrough
    3. Her type of win would be more expected if Licorice Pizza/Westside Story overperforms on wide-release end of the year.

    Cons:
    1. She is hardly a tested Actress prior to this
    2. She is not that known among voters, as a name
    3. While being in a BP contender can help, it may also overshadow her part in regards to Licorice Pizza/WSS  wins.

     

    FYC Oscars 2022

    Best Supporting Actor: Ben Affleck

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    PeytonKawai for Dame Kate Winslet
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    #1204639244

    Cons for Stewart … BAFTA president is Prince William
    Cons for Gaga … Possibly voters won’t take the film itself seriously
    Cons for Colman … BAFTA avoids to reward her after some wins

    PICTURE: Belfast, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World
    DIRECTOR: Dame Jane Campion, Sir Kenneth Branagh, Pablo Larrain
    ACTRESS: Kristen Stewart, Olivia Colman, Renate Reinsve
    ACTOR: Benedict Cumberbatch, Simon Rex
    SUP ACTRESS: Caitriona Balfe
    SUP ACTOR: Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Anders Danielsen Lie

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204639246

    I don’t know how they rate these movies. Even a crappy film like Judy has a much higher rating than Joker and House of Gucci. When it involves a showbiz personality, blind critics become mad. Same sentiment is obviously the reason Ricardos and Respect have average ratings cos I don’t see it for those critics. Critics need to start appreciating risky and highly artistically driven films. Nobody should talk about the audience scores because audience score shouldn’t be appreciated when a movie couldn’t even get back its budget

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

    Belfast for everything - Best Picture win

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    Jules
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    Dec 7th, 2021
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    #1204639250

    Even a crappy film like Judy has a much higher rating than Joker and House of Gucci.

    Interestingly, Judy also has 85% audience score on RT (with 5000+ votes) which is somehow turning into this thread’s be-all and end-all of gauging reception. Funny how that works eh.

     

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204639279

    Las Vegas Film Critics Society Nominations (LVFCS) today?

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    pedrohf2001
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    #1204639292

    Las Vegas Film Critics Society Nominations (LVFCS) today?

    It’s supposed to be. But who knows. No update on their twitter page

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    Opium
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    #1204639297

    The people that keeps clinging about HOG RT and MC, always forgets to mention the movie is the best adult drama box office of the last 2 years in a pandemic with countries in yet it has to premiere, Gaga can open a movie (reported by several articles), proving she can fill seats more than Will Smith and other veterans actors who underperforms with their movies, this alone puts the movie and Gaga  in a better position than Chastain and Kidman. The movie is seen and known, which is difficult to get, not everybody has that.

    Reminder that ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ was 10 points less than HOG and Malek didn’t get the raves Gaga got, or NYFCC, and the movie got in BP, not to mention the controversy with the director, it’s best actress Oscar, not who has the higher score on Metacritic award.

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    Michaël Fisher
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    #1204639345

    The people that keeps clinging about HOG RT and MC, always forgets to mention the movie is the best adult drama box office of the last 2 years in a pandemic with countries in yet it has to premiere, Gaga can open a movie (reported by several articles), proving she can fill seats more than Will Smith and other veterans actors who underperforms with their movies, this alone puts the movie and Gaga in a better position than Chastain and Kidman. The movie is seen and known, which is difficult to get, not everybody has that. Reminder that ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ was 10 points less than HOG and Malek didn’t get the raves Gaga got, or NYFCC, and the movie got in BP, not to mention the controversy with the director, it’s best actress Oscar, not who has the higher score on Metacritic award.

    The point is that it’s statistically improbable for Gaga to score a nomination based on the past nominees in this category over the last 10 years.

    There is a clear pattern with the Academy nominating actresses that starred in 80+ movies.

    Gucci turning rotten will definitely hurt Gaga’s chances.

    Box office is a non-factor when it comes to nominations. Black Swan and La La Land were the only box office hits with BA wins in the 2010s. These movies were also highly acclaimed and were nominated for Best Picture.

    I don’t see Gucci scoring any major nominations apart from Gaga’s long-shot BA nod.

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    Actormogul
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    #1204639356

    The point is that it’s statistically improbable for Gaga to score a nomination based on the past nominees in this category over the last 10 years.

    There is a clear pattern with the Academy nominating actresses that starred in 80+ movies.

    Gucci turning rotten will definitely hurt Gaga’s chances.

    Box office is a non-factor when it comes to nominations. Black Swan and La La Land were the only box office hits with BA wins in the 2010s. These movies were also highly acclaimed and were nominated for Best Picture.

    I don’t see Gucci scoring any major nominations apart from Gaga’s long-shot BA nod.

    Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are also in mixed reviewed movies with raves. Gaga has raves, is the saving grace of the film, is a mega celebrity and in the most awaited and successful box office film in two years. I think we are forgetting the power of campaign and celebrity. The Oscar’s have had poor ratings in the past. They want mega celebrities like Gaga at the party.

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    Ben Affleck Fan
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    #1204639361

    The point is that it’s statistically improbable for Gaga to score a nomination based on the past nominees in this category over the last 10 years. There is a clear pattern with the Academy nominating actresses that starred in 80+ movies. Gucci turning rotten will definitely hurt Gaga’s chances. Box office is a non-factor when it comes to nominations. Black Swan and La La Land were the only box office hits with BA wins in the 2010s. These movies were also highly acclaimed and were nominated for Best Picture. I don’t see Gucci scoring any major nominations apart from Gaga’s long-shot BA nod.

    You are overreacting, it is not impossible to score a nom with a rotten score, Andra Day last year comes in mind with 56%  RT score. Winning can be more difficult though, it depends on the standpoint of the competition in February, as things evolve.

    FYC Oscars 2022

    Best Supporting Actor: Ben Affleck

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    Lil Tony
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    #1204639363

    Interestingly, Judy also has 85% audience score on RT (with 5000+ votes) which is somehow turning into this thread’s be-all and end-all of gauging reception. Funny how that works eh.

    The audience score is valid since it made money, but the critic score is pure fraud…..I mean 82%…..really?

    Laga Gaga for Best Actress.

    House of Gucci for best picture.

    Belfast for everything - Best Picture win

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    QueenSansa
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    #1204639365

    Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are also in mixed reviewed movies with raves. Gaga has raves, is the saving grace of the film, is a mega celebrity and in the most awaited and successful box office film in two years. I think we are forgetting the power of campaign and celebrity. The Oscar’s have had poor ratings in the past. They want mega celebrities like Gaga at the party.

    What? Spencer does not have mixed reviews.

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    laslo
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1204639371

    The point is that it’s statistically improbable for Gaga to score a nomination based on the past nominees in this category over the last 10 years. There is a clear pattern with the Academy nominating actresses that starred in 80+ movies. Gucci turning rotten will definitely hurt Gaga’s chances. Box office is a non-factor when it comes to nominations. Black Swan and La La Land were the only box office hits with BA wins in the 2010s. These movies were also highly acclaimed and were nominated for Best Picture. I don’t see Gucci scoring any major nominations apart from Gaga’s long-shot BA nod.

    You are right about the pattern of awarding Best Actress to performances in acclaimed movies however saying that box office is a non-factor and that Black Swan and La La Land were the only box office hits to win BA last decade is a bit of a reach. Silver Linings Playbook grossed 236 million against a 21 million budget, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri grossed 160 million against a 12 million budget, The Iron Lady grossed 116 million against a 13 million budget, Blue Jasmine grossed 100 million against a 18 million budget and The Favourite grossed 96 million against a 15 million budget, so even if they are not the biggest numbers ever they can be considered hits or successful and I do think box office numbers matter to how much people want to nominate or reward performances, that’s why so few actors got Oscar nominations for movies grossing under 10 million and why performances like Rami Malek’s are awarded.

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    Michaël Fisher
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    #1204639378

    Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are also in mixed reviewed movies with raves. Gaga has raves, is the saving grace of the film, is a mega celebrity and in the most awaited and successful box office film in two years. I think we are forgetting the power of campaign and celebrity. The Oscar’s have had poor ratings in the past. They want mega celebrities like Gaga at the party.

    This is such a flawed argument. If they wanted to nominate celebrities, they would have nominated Jennifer Lopez for Best Supporting Actress in 2020 🤣. They are not that desperate. This is not the VMAs 🤣

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