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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 4)

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    JV
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    #1204383021

    This gave me a thought

    Stewart is my #1, Comer is my #2. I could potentially see a scenario similar to 2016

    Both get major buzz out of Venice, both enter winning conversation.

    Stewart, playing a real person, wins most critic awards. Possibly wins Critics’ Choice. Despite the film she’s in being weird af, she’s the main thing everyone agrees on being great in regards to the film. But it’s not necessarily the type of performance that wins Oscars. People start looking for an alternative…

    Enter Jodie Comer, a hot ingenue it-girl whose career is rising. Just two years off of an Emmy win and multiple BAFTA wins. She’s also widely agreed upon to be amazing in her film, which is more traditional Oscar bait. Her performance is the same deal. Because her performance is more accessible towards audiences and she has more good will with her career, she takes the industry awards, SAG and BAFTA, then wins the Oscar.

    Not the most likely scenario and I haven’t changed my predictions because of it, I can just picture it in my head

    You forgot something: The movie.
    La La Land won People’s Choice at TIFF and Emma Stone won the Volpi Cup at Venice.

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    #1204383023
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    JV
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    #1204383031

    House of Gucci had the highest amount of YouTube trailer views for the week of Jul. 25 – Jul. 31, with 8.70M views.

    Dune followed with 6.61M views for the week, while King Richard had 6.55M views.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BORReport/status/1422939936060104708?s=20

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    greenshark
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    #1204383042

    I’m guessing Gold Derby was just waiting for the Netflix announcement to be made official, but any idea now for when The Lost Daughter will be put in the predictions center?

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    #1204383045
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    LA26
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    #1204383060

    If Dunst & McDormand don’t go supporting: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter Jennifer Hudson, Respect Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth//Lady Gaga, House of Gucci Yep, I think Gaga might miss in the face of 2 BP players (or 3, if The Tragedy of Macbeth is a BP player) as well as Olivia freaking Colman and Jennifer freaking Hudson. McDormand might well miss if she goes Lead, unless The Tragedy of Macbeth is a BP player. Neither are my ideal lineups obviously.

    Imagine the meltdowns if Gaga doesn’t get nominated.

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    Rachel615
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    #1204383062

    with Respect coming out so early,

    Of course I know what you mean but it’s odd to refer to a movie filmed almost TWO YEARS AGO as “coming out so early.” (It’s been over 18 months since I watched them film the scene with Hudson and two others sitting on a bench on the border of Riverside Park in NYC right across the street from my apartment building.)

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    kaziz
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    #1204383078

    Imagine the meltdowns if Gaga doesn’t get nominated.

    yeaaaaaaaaaaah. But tbh meltdowns on some level are to be expected. MANY Oscar experts have House of Gucci winning. That level of faith in that movie itself… damn. Whereas over here it feels like people are penciling Lady Gaga because, understandably, she has the star power to get a nod even without the broad acclaim.

    Also I genuinely have a feeling that critics are going to be scared to pan Gaga if she’s bad lol. They may pan the movie but I’m betting most of them will say as little as possible about Gaga’s performance unless it’s really good.

    FYC:
    Picture: The Power of the Dog, Passing, The Lost Daughter
    Director: Jane Campion, Rebecca Hall
    Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Actress: Tessa Thompson, Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst, Ruth Negga, Dakota Johnson, Jessie Buckley
    Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Jesse Plemons

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    LA26
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    #1204383099

    yeaaaaaaaaaaah. But tbh meltdowns on some level are to be expected. MANY Oscar experts have House of Gucci winning. That level of faith in that movie itself… damn. Whereas over here it feels like people are penciling Lady Gaga because, understandably, she has the star power to get a nod even without the broad acclaim. Also I genuinely have a feeling that critics are going to be scared to pan Gaga if she’s bad lol. They may pan the movie but I’m betting most of them will say as little as possible about Gaga’s performance unless it’s really good.

    Yeah, her fans are really annoying on social media. Clayton Davis has been bullish on the film while it was still being shot. I can’t help but feel people are being overconfident about her because she’s Lady Gaga and don’t seem to care for her performance in the film.

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    Elsa Korr
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    #1204383102

    Jodie Comer is way safer than Lady Gaga IMO….

    and JHud will be safe since she is the only WoC who is looking very strong.

    FYC-Nightmare Alley in All Categories (Best Picture, Guillermo Del Toro for Best Director, Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, Cate Blanchett for Best Actress, Rooney Mara for Best Supporting Actress, Richard Jenkins for Best Supporting Actor)

    FYC-Last Night in Soho (Edgar Wright for Best Director, Thomasin McKenzie for Best Actress, Anya Taylor Joy for Best Supporting Actress, Edgar Wright and Krysty Wilson Cairns for Best Original Screenplay)

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    George Ehret
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    #1204383112

    You forgot something: The movie. La La Land won People’s Choice at TIFF and Emma Stone won the Volpi Cup at Venice.

    in all fairness, it wasn’t supposed to be a perfect comparison. But yes you are correct

    FYC
    Best Picture: The Worst Person in the World
    Best Director: Jane Campion
    Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch
    Best Actress: Renate Reinsve
    Best Supporting Actor: Benedict Wong
    Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog
    Best Original Screenplay: The Worst Person in the World

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    LA26
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    #1204383134

    Jodie Comer is way safer than Lady Gaga IMO…. and JHud will be safe since she is the only WoC who is looking very strong.

    What makes you say that? Is it because the writer of House of Gucci is an unknown? I’ll be honest: the trailer for The Last Duel made me feel better about predicting Comer, but IMO Lady Gaga is still much more safer.

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    sadins
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    #1204383187

    Most people think Hudson is most safe option to score nominations. But for me, she looks least likely to score nominations out of top contenders.

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    Butterfield 8
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    #1204383258

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Halle Berry – Bruised

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    I’m picking Halle Berry over Jennifer Hudson at the moment but honestly I feel like JHud could be pretty safe for a nom. Also if Dunst goes supporting then there are several options and I could see Penelope getting some attention for her role.

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    JGibson
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    #1204383286

    a lot of her fans don’t understand the award process. Like at all.

    Tbh most of us also don’t. Creating jizarre theories about “narratives” and unproportional comparisons that while at first might seem rational, they’re extremely illogical. Besides ignoring actual important stuff of campaigning like the studio that is distributing, screeners etc. Still, it’s fun to pretend to know what’s up sometimes.

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