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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 48)

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    RIDLEY SCOTT
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    #1204683009

    About that article: it’s the truth in a Way. Lady Gaga only has 2 movies as Lead and both were very successful. It’s more than 90% of actors. Most actors never have a big success in their entire careers

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    Instant
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    #1204683012

    Predicting Colman to win is also dumb. The only thing she has won so far is Gotham which has NYFCC members in it and they didn’t give her a win, even tho she never won there even with The Favourite.

    Colman with her home turf advantage at BAFTA is making a lot of things complicated considering this new top 2 rule. Of course, she is gonna get tons of votes at BAFTA since she’s super beloved + British actors in acclaimed movies very rarely miss LFCC and Dublin Critics. This is basically a less blatant case of AACTA always showering their homegrown talent with votes and wins.

    The Academy doesn’t entirely consist of everyone British, so if Colman loses trifecta, Globes, SAG, BFCA, it doesn’t make her win competitive, because BAFTA will mass vote for her

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    coopC
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    #1204683014

    Stewart and Colman will still be nominated. As I said before, even if Kidman, Chastain and Gaga were to get in, they likely won’t win BAFTA. It is Stewart vs Colman probably

    BAFTA can miss, you know. Nothing is certain, if someone is sweeping the Globe and SAG, I would be predicting that person.

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    The Northman
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    #1204683016

    Stats like that are meaningless because one could say the same about the trifeca/festival thing. Also, makeup nom is another strong indication for biopic performance.

    In regards to trifecta since it is brought up a lot here, it is nothing more or less than any other given critics awards in USA. Also, Volvi Cup could be indication with a good best picture contender I would say. Cruz could make the Oscars and BAFTAs line-up still, people tend to forget she won the Volvi Cup and also made the LFCC list, while making the AACTA. In fact, Cruz and Stewart are the only ones to make both. As for the make-up, there is no such trend and Spencer has no place in that category, if people wonder why it missed. A case could be made only for Being The Ricardos.

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    Instant
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    #1204683020

    I mean, that LFCC + AACTA combo and Cruz is fighting for the fifth spot. Go figure

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    coopC
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    #1204683022

    In regards to trifecta since it is brought up a lot here, it is nothing more or less than any other given critics awards in USA. Also, Volvi Cup could be indication with a good best picture contender I would say. Cruz could make the Oscars and BAFTAs line-up still, people tend to forget she won the Volvi Cup and also made the LFCC list, while making the AACTA. In fact, Cruz and Stewart are the only ones to make both. As for the make-up, there is no such trend and Spencer has no place in that category, if people wonder why it missed. A case could be made only for Being The Ricardos.

    That’s incorrect, the major critics awards make the headlines and people including the voters will talk about it. Most people definitely don’t know or care about the regionals which have like a thousand followers on Twitter.

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    Aaron Kalloo
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    #1204683028

    If Stewart wins NSFC, then the only thing she’ll have going against her is the Hair and Makeup miss.

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    asyrafgrande
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    #1204683030

    5 years is nothing, when no actress has ever won in BA with no NBR, trifecta, festival awards or a BP nominee since Kathy Bates in Misery

    mean nothing just bc your fave didn’t get nominate at LFCC. you all love pattern right? it’s all fun when your fave line up with trend and pattern for oscar win, but hate when other do. btw, Ben Affleck Fan correct me. it’s 10 years actually.

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    coopC
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    #1204683034

    If Stewart wins NSFC, then the only thing she’ll have going against her is the Hair and Makeup miss.

    She also has the audience score. Then again, the other girls have the yellow metacritic score. People should not be canceling out these factors because they are not the same.

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    The Northman
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    #1204683036

    That’s incorrect, the major critics awards make the headlines and people including the voters will talk about it. People definitely don’t know or care about the regionals which have only a few thousand followers on Twitter.

    I would say it is the combination of noms /wins that matter, not the sole wins. We thought Cruz was out and she won LAFCA. You can’t clearly tell now, because you have seen Cruz not making the other critics groups in USA, not even top5 in most cases.

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    asyrafgrande
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    #1204683040

    Stats like that are meaningless because one could say the same about the trifeca/festival thing. Also, makeup nom is another strong indication for biopic performance.

    trifecta/festival has like 5 different award vs 1 LFCC. ONE. so LFCC is far superior.

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    Anthagiox
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    #1204683042

    About that article: it’s the truth in a Way. Lady Gaga only has 2 movies as Lead and both were very successful. It’s more than 90% of actors. Most actors never have a big success in their entire careers

    But thinking this way requires nuance and understanding what the author meant. People in this thread saw Gaga praise and it sent them into a tizzy. Like, literally, they read that one sentence and decided to have a meltdown.

    The point that person was trying to make was that ASIB and HOG have both been huge successes (HOG to a lesser extent all things considered) and have both had massive cultural impact. Most actors are lucky to have just one movie/role with the cultural impact and success of ASIB, let alone two.

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    Instant
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    #1204683048

    mean nothing just your fave didn’t get nominate at LFCC. you all love history and pattern right? it’s all fun when your fave line up with trend and pattern for oscar win, but not if other do. btw, Ben Affleck Fan correct me. it’s 10 years actually.

    Pipe down, ColdStew stan or you’ll start twitching and panting like Duchess Camila in Spencer.

    If me posting stats is so unbearable for you, then maybe film awards seasons are not for you

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    coopC
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    #1204683051

    I would say it is the combination that matters, not the sole wins. We thought Cruz was out and she won LAFCA. You can’t clearly tell now, because you have seen Cruz not making the other critics groups in USA, not even top5 in most cases.

    I’m talking about the effects of these awards on voters, also the trifeca, NBR and Volpi combined has like five awards, sole win doesn’t matter that much, but no win does.

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    Opium
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    #1204683058

    That’s incorrect, the major critics awards make the headlines and people including the voters will talk about it. Most people definitely don’t know or care about the regionals which have like a thousand followers on Twitter.

    It’s indeed curious that the supposed frontrunner who has the bigger critics support has won so far only 2nd or 3rd tier critics regionals that like you pointed out nobody cares, especially media wise, but not something relevant like Volpi, NBR, NYFCC or LAFCA… Unless she will win NSFC of course, so far she feels like a weak frontrunner.

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