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Oscars 2022 Predictions: Best Actress (Part 5)

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    pablozedd
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    #1204395933

    on top of JHud becoming the first person to win for both acting & songwriting in the same film (and the second ever to win in both fields after Barbra Streisand).

    We don’t know yet if Gaga is rolling out some gratuitous song to sing in House of Gucci, but she’s already a BOS winner & the only serious BOS prediction I’ve seen yet basically saves a spot for such a song if it comes out. She may be gunning for the whole acting-songwriting double just like JHud (she already got the nom double for A Star Is Born), and she has the extra firepower of Ridley Scott plus a bunch of other possible noms for the film including Best Picture.

    Gaga is rumored to have a song for Top Gun Maverick. Double noms for her could happen if this is really happening.

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    kaziz
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    #1204395958

    I don’t think anyone’s seen it except the festival programmers, but this is based on the role she’s playing. I’ve heard a lot about the role and I just bought the book so I can find out for myself. It’s a big role and it’s got some meat to it. I wouldn’t dismiss her chances of winning

    Oooooh yayyy, you’re reading the book. Lil tip: watch for how many pages are spent on certain POVs and also when certain background characters like Lola are probably in the scene but you don’t realize it. On a second read it was remarkable to me not just how much parity there was there but also the supporting cast is so big. Rose’s first husband has POV in the first third but he’s not cast so I’m guessing that subplot is being shunted to Rose but either way, yeah watch out for that 🙂

    Question about Emilia Jones for those who’ve seen CODA: Very, very often for breakout actresses, I genuinely feel their first nominated performance is the best. Amy Adams with Junebug, Jennifer Lawrence with Winter’s Bone, Anne Hathaway with Rachel Getting Married (tho that wasn’t a breakout, just a first nod for an already-famous actress), Viola Davis for Doubt, Emily Watson for Breaking the Waves & I have a strong suspicion I’ll feel similarly about Vanessa Kirby in the years to come because it was my favorite performance of the year. Saoirse Ronan, Michelle Williams, and others are exceptions imo, but generally yeah in retrospect I always find myself wishing actors had won the first time before they became a huge deal and got nominated for lesser performances. Imagine if Emilia Jones does get nominated and goes on to become a BIG DEAL. Is it a performance that you can imagine thinking in retrospect deserved the win? Because if so, I will believe you and get on the hype train. I don’t think enough people felt that way about Sidney Flanagan last year for example, but they did for Andra Day, and sometimes that can make a huge difference in getting nominated (yes, I know the films were radically different, just saying that Day had more mainstream passion, that indies like Winter’s Bone & Junebug clearly had, and thus maybe Jones can too).

    So many actresses should’ve gotten nominated or won with their breakthroughs 🙁 Adepero Oduye for Pariah (though that was 2011, a year when none of the nominees, except maybe Viola, deserved to be nominated, and it really should’ve been Swindon, Dunst, Olsen, Oduye, Theron/Davis/Colman). Naomi Watts for Mulholland Drive. Sally Hawkins for Happy Go-Lucky. Stuff like that.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    wolfali
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    #1204395960

    If Saoirse Ronan and Amy Adams are considered overdue, then Laura is as well, imo.

    I mean I think Linney is a stronger actor than those two but unlike her they’ve never won a single major award before and have more nominations. Likewise both Ronan and Adams are promarily film actors which isn’t the case with Linney (a veteran of the stage and small screen). She also only has 3 Oscar nominations but she also has won 4 Emmys.

    I would love to see her win an Oscar eventually  (and I’m hopeful because Ozark has helped put her back in the conversation) but if she’s overdue for anything it’s a Tony.

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    kaziz
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    #1204395969

    It’s sad but at this point i just feel that a black actress needs a movie in top 3 for best picture to win lead actresses. Besides Viola i think she could win lead actress without a best picture nom.

    Sad but……maybe true. And I can’t think of the last BP winner with a Black female lead. Wait. Has there ever been a BP winner with a Black female lead?! The Color Purple, Hidden Figures, Precious, Beasts of the Southern Wild are films I can think of off the top of my head but I’m guessing only The Color Purple actually came close to winning.

    That being said—I’m such an “everything is broken” leftist, yes lol, but the fact that films like Passing are getting made and are actually in the conversation (fingers crossed) just makes me hopeful for intelligent stories and not just slavery films or biopics (which can of course be intelligent, they just predominate too much :/)

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kaziz
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    #1204395973

    but if she’s overdue for anything it’s a Tony.

    Hellz yeah. Linney’s film career also took a backseat to her stage career for long periods so unlike the other “overdue” people mentioned, she’s just not producing as much in the film arena. She should have every award in existence now though, she’s amazing.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204395978

    Sad but……maybe true. And I can’t think of the last BP winner with a Black female lead. Wait. Has there ever been a BP winner with a Black female lead?! The Color Purple, Hidden Figures, Precious, Beasts of the Southern Wild are films I can think of off the top of my head but I’m guessing only The Color Purple actually came close to winning. That being said—I’m such an “everything is broken” leftist, yes lol, but the fact that films like Passing are getting made and are actually in the conversation (fingers crossed) just makes me hopeful for intelligent stories and not just slavery films or biopics (which can of course be intelligent, they just predominate too much :/)

    Does Naomi Harris in moonlight count? Thats probably the closest.  Honestly, I dont think the color purple was even close.

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    kaziz
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    #1204396007

    Does Naomi Harris in moonlight count? Thats probably the closest. Honestly, I dont think the color purple was even close.

    Lol it probably wasn’t, but I think it was at least zeitgeisty enough that I can maybe imagine it was close.

    Yeah Harris in Moonlight doesn’t count, she’s the definition of a supporting character. I thought long and hard about Moonlight but the truth is there’s only one lead character played by 3 different actors.

    Justice for Passing, Tessa Thompson & Ruth Negga.

    The Power of the Dog / Jane Campion / Benedict Cumberbatch / Kristen Stewart / Kirsten Dunst / Troy Kotsur

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    kallewickans
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    #1204396010

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    Opium
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    #1204396019

    Jennifer Hudson is done for winning a second Oscar: -The reviews of her film are currently sinking fast. Now it’s 60 on Metacritic and 62 on RT. -On top of that, her personal reviews aren’t great either, as the recent Vulture pan mentioned – “A failure to Aretha Franklin’s legacy”. If Andra Day, with much better reviews of her performance, no expectations to fill and the ingenue factor couldn’t win… -And the current pre sales numbers aren’t great either. Sure, pandemic, but considering the prior points, this was the last point to overperform. At the end, Jennifer Hudson only has “she’s playing Aretha Franklin”, but nothing came as substantial. Her reviews are so underwhelming and she probably needs to pray for the majority of the competition to flop terribly for being a filler nominee. And considering there’s a considerable list of biopics/real life characters (Chastain, Stewart, Gaga, Kidman), bordeline cases (Blanchett, Dunst) or actresses with bigger films (Thompson, Cruz, Zegler), or better roles (Berry, Colman, Reinsve). Say what you want of “Judy”, but Zellweger has more unanymous raves for her performance comparing Hudson. They won’t give an Oscar to a POC actress just because it’s so overdue to see one (As last year show us). And if we go for the anonymous voters, they simply won’t care the twitter mobs or the comments in these forums, when they don’t have the will to vote it. Youn won, but she had the film and the performance which resonated to the voters (Voters loved “Minari”) and not even Atypical’s stands of comparing Glenn Close to Geraldine Page situation (Which it was full opposite) was enough. Close had the respect, but not the role or the film.

    I agree overall, she could still get nominated but that’s all, also like somebody mentioned I think that maybe they could reward her in BOS (even if the song is weak in my opinion), but it would still make sense for a music biopic movie and it would be her second Oscar, she’s already has an acting one and it would be still huge for her and the movie getting this recognition.

    Also I don’t see JHud being the first black actress getting two acting Oscars and for two musical roles, like I’ve always said Oscars are also about reputation and JHud after her first win collected just tones of flop-not event movies, Viola was in a better position last year in terms of having a bigger impact in the industry, a 87 movie on MC, and she still didn’t manage to get it despite a good promo and the divided race and SAG win.

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    George Ehret
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    #1204396043

    Imagine if Emilia Jones does get nominated and goes on to become a BIG DEAL. Is it a performance that you can imagine thinking in retrospect deserved the win?

    For me personally, I’d probably say no. First because Martha Plimpton is unbelievably perfect in Mass and I’m expecting Dunst and Colman to do a number on me as well. But also because my personal winners in this category over the years is usually not really like this performance. Just going down the list:

    Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
    Awkwafina (The Farewell)
    Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
    Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
    Kim Tae-ri (The Handmaiden)
    Rooney Mara (Carol)
    Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
    Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
    Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

    Emilia doesn’t really fit with any of them. So I dunno. She might get kicked out of my personal nominations looking at how strong this field is

    FYC
    Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204396148

    It’s sad but at this point i just feel that a black actress needs a movie in top 3 for best picture to win lead actresses. Besides Viola i think she could win lead actress without a best picture nom.

    Remember Halle won Best Actress without a BP contending film. So anything is possible. However, the gatekeepers definitely want to keep the category pure White. It’s obvious WOC aren’t valued as leading women. Hence why they only win in Supporting.

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    Ash
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    #1204396158

    Remember Halle won Best Actress without a BP contending film. So anything is possible. However, the gatekeepers definitely want to keep the category pure White. It’s obvious WOC aren’t valued as leading women. Hence why they only win in Supporting.

    It’s annoying cause Black Women have the performances but not the push like Halle was pushed really hard by Lee Daniels who the industry really respected at that time. But these are some performances that i think will give us another black lead actress winner.
    Viola Davis – The Woman King
    Regina King – Shirley Chisholm
    Zendaya – Be my baby (Ronnie Spector biopic)

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    Ash
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    #1204396165

    It’s annoying cause Black Women have the performances but not the push like Halle was pushed really hard by Lee Daniels who the industry really respected at that time. But these are some performances that i think will give us another black lead actress winner.
    Viola Davis – The Woman King
    Regina King – Shirley Chisholm
    Zendaya – Be my baby (Ronnie Spector biopic)

    Keke Palmer for nope will be Oscar worthy i feel it but Jordan Peele has the movie premiering outside of Oscar season. But Regina Viola Zendaya one of them can get the Oscar ima speak it into existence cause only 1 black woman having a lead Oscar is just horrible.

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    wolfali
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    #1204396170

    Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) Awkwafina (The Farewell) Olivia Colman (The Favourite) Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) Kim Tae-ri (The Handmaiden) Rooney Mara (Carol) Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

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    Diamond Tier
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    #1204396172

    It’s annoying cause Black Women have the performances but not the push like Halle was pushed really hard by Lee Daniels who the industry really respected at that time. But these are some performances that i think will give us another black lead actress winner.
    Viola Davis – The Woman King
    Regina King – Shirley Chisholm
    Zendaya – Be my baby (Ronnie Spector biopic)

    Whoever wins the coveted role of Celie in The Color Purple: Musical film might have a shot.

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