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Post-globes (pre SAG noms)
1. Kidman
2. Colman
3. Stewart
4. Zegler (for the fun of it + lead in an BP nominee)
5. Penelope (would love to see her get the SAG nod, but unlikely)
Chastain took a major hit. Feel bad for her, it’s been almost 10 years since her last nom.
I think this year more than ever separates great performances in mediocre films from great/good performances in acclaimed films.. I genuinely think Gaga, Chastain and Kidman all would be deserving nominees, but often the temptation is to say they should be snubbed because their movies can’t be taken too seriously. Jennifer Hudson probably is out but she’s on the same boat. To predcit people like Tessa Thompson, Renata Reinsve, Penélope Cruz and Alan Haim feel more “right”, because not only they were oustanding, they also dealt with more prestigious material. But the category is best actress, not best performance in a good movie. And raising above weak material sometimes should be enought to land an award (even if in recent years didn’t work for people like Amy Adams, Jennifer Aniston or Emily Blunt). So should we care about the overall movie reception?
I think it’s a very hard thing to completely dissociate a performance from its context, when we talk about a lead category especially, can a truly outstanding central performance come from a terrible script? I’d say yes but in very few cases.
Even if they are not the actors job or fault, all the technical aspects of the film they are inserted in are still relevant to the performance, from the writing and directing to the makeup and hair. The reasons a film is considered bad or good are almost always interlinked, so judging a performance just based on what someone considers good acting is some very dubious criteria. But that is just my opinion obviously.
I just find it odd that Chastain was their second pick. Like, what? Surely they’re just trying to be right as opposed to choosing what they feel is the actual best in the running. They so desperately want to be taken seriously so any loss they experience is an affront to them.
Tbh, they kind of had a point predicting her, she acknowledged the globe nom as well. Remember when the media (Variety and THR etc) suddenly added her back to the top five without any excuses, they might be tipped off that she’ll probably take the globe, even the globe started a poll: which Category will Chastain most likely win, TV or film. I low-key admitted to myself yesterday that she’s most definitely winning.
I find it hilarious how Kidman won for that shitty movie.
But Spencer is also a shitty movie. We heard about SAG members leaving Spencer screenings before half of the movie.
SAG noms and BAFTA shortlists this Wednesday. I can’t 💀
Spencer is not shitty, come on now. Not for everyone, but it’s objectively well made.
The overreactions are really funny by the way lol
Kristen isn’t winning SAG or BAFTA
To be honest, Westside Story seems a pick with some populist + acclaimed nature, that could help Zegler to get a nom. Haim has only some regional awards while Zegler a Globe and a film that dominated over Haims at the same show. Given the actory nature of WSS, it should also perform better than Licorice Pizza at the SAGs.
if Zegler doesn’t get a SAG nom, she’s done, i don’t think she’s the kind of actress to pull off an Oscar nom only with GG as precursor
I just find it odd that Chastain was their second pick. Like, what? Surely they’re just trying to be right as opposed to choosing what they feel is the actual best in the running. They so desperately want to be taken seriously so any loss they experience is an affront to them.
Experts they are not. YouTube “performers” cynically exploiting a captive obsessive audience? Mayyyybe.
FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganichif Zegler doesn’t get a SAG nom, she’s done, i don’t think she’s the kind of actress to pull off an Oscar nom only with GG as precursor
That would be a bad sign indeed, I would be dropping her for Chastain, unless Cruz is nominated, but Alana sure isn’t happening now.
Y’all need to let Kristen go… she’s quite obviously done.
Confidence is coming from the word “critics” in the name. Kristen has been winning the regional critics awards so the assumption is she will win with this group as well. However, that’s going to depend on if the CCA voters are more in line with the industry or the regional critics.
Thank that makes sense. But I do feel like there is huge difference between CCA and regional critics. My only evidence is Jared Leto nomination, whom regional critic have been avoiding like plague. But I guess thats not enough to draw conclusion of whether voters are more in line with the industry or the regional critics.
Thank that makes sense. But I do feel like there is huge difference between CCA and regional critics. My only evidence is Jared Leto nomination, whom regional critic have been avoiding like plague. But I guess thats not enough to draw conclusion of whether voters are more in line with the industry or the regional critics.
Also, like Lil Tony said, they want to try and predict the Oscars… but then again, giving HOG multiple nominations doesn’t seem like they’re trying to predict the Oscars lol.
- Stewart
- Kidman
- Zegler
- Gaga
- Cruz/Colman (Whoever gets the BAFTA nomination between them)
Only way I can see Chastain happening if she wins SAG and only way I can see Hiam happening if Licorice Pizza performs extremely well at CCA like WSS did at Globes yesterday.
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